Scalping - Different Approach

[cybernet69]

Hi,

Been testing a new idea around scalping today and all very odd as it seemed to go the right way more than 70% of the time.

Criteria I used was:

- UK Horse Racing. (All races with no odds on favourites)
- Trade the last 5 mins pre-off.
- Odds range 3 to 9. (There must be at least 3 qualifying selections)
- Scalp (LTB) the selection with the lowest traded volume and the WOM > 70% and the current back amount > (current lay amount * 3).

I originally thought that this would mean just trading the one with the highest odds but most of the time it wasn't.

Anyone else tried this before ?

Cheers,

[xitian]

I expect you'll need a much bigger sample than just one day's races to verify it.

You'd probably want a sample of at least a few hundred races that matched your criteria before coming to any conclusions.

Also win rate isn't necessarily that relevant unless it's combined with the average amount you win each time and loss amount when you do lose.

[gazuty]

Hi,

Been testing a new idea around scalping today and all very odd as it seemed to go the right way more than 70% of the time.

Criteria I used was:

- UK Horse Racing. (All races with no odds on favourites)
- Trade the last 5 mins pre-off.
- Odds range 3 to 9. (There must be at least 3 qualifying selections)
- Scalp (LTB) the selection with the lowest traded volume and the WOM > 70% and the current back amount > (current lay amount * 3).

I originally thought that this would mean just trading the one with the highest odds but most of the time it wasn't.

Anyone else tried this before ?

Cheers,

Never tried but what I can tell you is you are on the path to ultimate success. They key is to have an idea (which you have), run the idea (which you have) and then keep testing and thinking about the idea (which you have started doing).

If the idea is working, think about why. If the idea starts failing, think about why and how you could tweak it.

There are tools available to help you - eg viewtopic.php?f=31&t=133

Use them to learn. Does your strategy do better on some races v others, or better at some courses v others or on some days v others.

You might find by excluding particular courses, types of races etc you can enhance your results.

Of course, as Xitian says, you need a greater sample size.

Good luck, if you stick at it and keep analysing and tweaking you will hit pay dirt.

[Crazyskier]

Hi,

Been testing a new idea around scalping today and all very odd as it seemed to go the right way more than 70% of the time.

Criteria I used was:

- UK Horse Racing. (All races with no odds on favourites)
- Trade the last 5 mins pre-off.
- Odds range 3 to 9. (There must be at least 3 qualifying selections)
- Scalp (LTB) the selection with the lowest traded volume and the WOM > 70% and the current back amount > (current lay amount * 3).

I originally thought that this would mean just trading the one with the highest odds but most of the time it wasn't.

Anyone else tried this before ?

Cheers,

Never tried but what I can tell you is you are on the path to ultimate success. They key is to have an idea (which you have), run the idea (which you have) and then keep testing and thinking about the idea (which you have started doing).

If the idea is working, think about why. If the idea starts failing, think about why and how you could tweak it.

There are tools available to help you - eg viewtopic.php?f=31&t=133

Use them to learn. Does your strategy do better on some races v others, or better at some courses v others or on some days v others.

You might find by excluding particular courses, types of races etc you can enhance your results.

Of course, as Xitian says, you need a greater sample size.

Good luck, if you stick at it and keep analysing and tweaking you will hit pay dirt.

Excellent reply above, with which I agree completely. Trends and patterns and potentially winning strategies are only ever a success when they consistently make more money than they lose. Frankly, you won't know this until you have a MUCH larger sample size than just a few day's races, however the methodology is correct.

Secondly, don't just seek 50% + strategies - a consistent strategy that has only 30% win frequency but returns 3.5 times or greater your stake will also bring in funds long term as a basic example.

The key is to confirm they are as successful long term as they appear initially (lots of flash in the pans) and then as Gazuty said tweaking and analysing to refine further, whilst ensuring you keep the scale low enough to have sufficient funds to ride the inevitable troughs...