Is this predictable?

[JacoboPolavieja]

Hello all,

Although I've been on the markets for a year or so I consider myself pretty novice. I have studied great deal of Technical Analysis and try to apply the basics of it in pre-race horse trading.

Anyway, I've been observing that many times it all seems to be there for good position, I enter it and starts developing well when, all of a sudden, a big bet comes in like 5-6 ticks lower-higher in the opposite direction to leave me with a nice and fine red figure.
It's not the case of our friend the 22K guy as the amounts are not that high (mostly around 2K, 3K or 4K), and isn't just a spike either because he/she/they hold it there and the money doesn't disappear, so many start piling up with them and the change in direction stablishes.

I've observed it happens a lot when the initially second horse drifts to become the 3rd one... and when it seems it can go higher and starts turning down, this happens. It sometimes also happens with the 3rd favourite or a 3rd favourite which has steamed to be 2nd. I think it's mostly done to force one of the other favourites go in the direction they were going.
It's usually in the last minute or so before the race.

It annoys me because I think I more or less understand the markets now... and many times I build good profit just to get hit by this and end losing more than I achieved: one quick movement erases lots of good ones. But what really annoys me is that I can't never predict it. No matter what I look at, I see nothing that sends me a warning. It just suddenly... bam! I'm screwed.

So I ask:
- Is this really predictable? I'm not asking you to reveal your secrets, just would like to know if I'm the only one experimenting this or not and exchange views on it.
- Is it real money or just pure manipulation? Because it usually happens on horses that are priced pretty lower on the bookies and this furthers the gap even more in a matter of seconds.
- Should I leave trading the second or 3rd favs and concentrate just on the favourite as it is more difficult for this to happen due to liquidity?
- Should I apply more TA or reduce/remove it from my trading?

Sorry for the long post. To anyone that shares anything... thank you.

Cheers!

[hgodden]

This probably wont fully answer your question but as you're seeing the racing markets (and all betfair markets) are unique in that there is a correlation between the prices to keep a steady over round and, unlike in the financial markets where TA was constructed, you have a set time frame for volume to arrive and the market to do it's thing. I'm not saying that everything learned from TA can't be applied to the racing markets at all, but I'm sure that certain ideas from it can't be used consistantly purely due to the uniqueness of the markets.

Keep up the studying, you seem to have a good logical approach to trying to work things out, so if you keep going and maybe look at different areas you'll get there, most likely after reaching a few more dead ends I'm afraid, that's research for you!

[SilentDave]

If you are seeing this behaviour only in the last minute of so before the race then can you not just exit a few minutes before the off? These last few minutes seem to be pretty unpredictable as bookies hedge, traders close their positions etc.

[JacoboPolavieja]

hgooden: as you say TA apart from not being any exact science, is only applicable to a level. I'd just like to know what that level is for people here, hehe!
And dead end after dead end I improved a lot... but this one just seems to be a hard one which is killing me (well, my bank) pretty nicely.
If it's someone of this forum doing it... congratulations, you're doing a great job taking my money away! .

SilentDave: I've thought about it, but it's difficult as I see lots and lots of opportunities, maybe due to the crazyness you mention. Most of that crazyness I manage ok, but this is not it... it's not something crazy, it's completely deliberate and with an objective. I may try to stay away today... although I suffer great from the "nervous clicking finger disease", haha!

I'll try and make some screenshots today when I get caught. Because that's the sad thing, knowing that sooner or later it's gonna happend . I'll go with just 2€ or 5€ today and will try something new as I'm surely not going anywhere good like this.

Thanks for the comments!

[SilentDave]

Good luck! Like you say the volatility just before the off I'm sure does present opportunities but as a novice trader I'm steering well clear of the pre-off crazyness as it's bitten me a few times

[maneman]

JacoboPolavieja,
You have my empathy with your current plight re: trading. To predict which way the market is going on a particular horse is quite difficult in my view.
I cannot get on with pure trading the horse racing markets the way that Peter and others like him do. I tried it and it all seemed too much effort, hassle and time for too little return.

So I predominantly lay horses, one selection in a race that I trade as well. Advantage to me is that because my opinion is that the horse will lose the race, I am not concerned about trading out at a loss. However, if I can make 10% plus in trading it, then I will plus I can still retain an option if I wish to lay it in another account. Also, if a selection drifts I am far more relaxed about letting it run to make more out of the trade, rather than a rush before the off and/or anxiety to green out.
I personally find that this suits me better and more importantly, it works for me.

I do not recommend that anyone should adopt my method and strategy but that you need to find a method and strategy that works for you and that you are comfortable with; that's vitally important. If you can adapt someone elses methods etc all well and good but when you're at that computer with your finger on the mouse; you're on your own!
M

[JacoboPolavieja]

I think there's opportunity everywhere... it's just a matter of understanding it. In this case is this ones who are taking advantage. As the liquidity on the second and third is normally far less, if you know you can modify that price anytime you want, you obviously have a winning method. It's true that they could get crash through by opposite money... but I feel it happens on very few occasions.
It happens to the favourite alos somtimes... but as liquidity is a lot higher the moves normally aren't as wide and even if the turn in trend stablishes you have plenty more time to exit or even take advantage of it.

maneman: as you say... each one has to find his path. Problem is I'm starting to doubt I have one, haha! But anyway, as hard as may be a particular style for your mindset, the moment you're trading you're trying to predict the market. I suppose you lay those horses based on form information... which I don't really know much about, so that's the hard part for me.

So, am I the oly one experiencing this? I see if I can get a screen this evening to see if it's not normal or if it's me that doesn't kow how to handle it.

Thanks for all and good luck!

[hgodden]

What you're experiencing is certainly normal, everyone who had made it has had to go through these things. One of the things that seperates those that have learned to do it and those that haven't is the ability to deal with the disappointment of going down blind alley after blind alley and still come back for more. IMO learning key information about the markets and working out applicable strategies is the tough thing, once you've got those things under your belt then although you'll experience ups and downs in your day to day trading, most of the really hard work is over.

[Iron]

True, but you have to tread carefully, as there is a thin line between that and having a gambling problem...

Jacobo - My advice to you would be to use very small stakes until you're sure about what you're doing. Or better yet, just watch the market and observe its behaviour. It's boring, but you won't lose money.

Jeff

One of the things that seperates those that have learned to do it and those that haven't is the ability to deal with the disappointment of going down blind alley after blind alley and still come back for more.

[JacoboPolavieja]

As far as I don't believe in just watching (that doesn't mean to not analyze to learn) or playing with false money (in the case there would be a demo version or something like that), I'm currently playing with just 2€ stakes till, as you say, I know what I'm doing.

What's strange is that some weeks ago I was trading well, and upped my stakes to 20-30€. It worked ok for three days... and then the fourth one everything went downhill. The same happened the next day, losing more than I had achieved the previous days. So I stepped back and I'm trying to see what changed, or more probably... what did I change. Until then... 2 is the number .
But my main problem with that style I had been implementing was mainly what I described in the first post, so that's why I asked if anybody had been caught with that also. I'll retry trying to stay away from the 2nd and 3rd in the last minute before the off.

Yesterday I tried to look at some other things and trade in a much more calm style with bigger ranges, just to see if it can lead to something. Being the first day it did make a profit (small, of course), but as a day means nothing. I can see the logic behind it though... so I'll see what this leads to.

Thank you all for your comments. Although the thread wasn't started with that in mind, it's great to read you on these topics. On the main topic I suppose:
a) I'm the only one trading on the 2nd and 3rd fav.
b) I'm the only one having trouble with it.

Haha! Thank you all! Cheers!