Probably been covered a few times but just thought I'd put it out there to see what the common consensus was...
Hedging out pre-race or letting it go in-play?
And by that I mean trading pre-race on one or maybe two runners and gaining a profit on those one or two, with the rest of the field being completely neutral and then leaving it in-play to either hedge out during the race hoping to get a better green-up figure or letting it go completely to the finish if your runner with the pre-race profit looks a possible winner?
Probably a two-edged sword but it's taking it in-play risk free as you are zero on the rest of the field.
I generally like to get the profit and hedge out pre-race, which of course is the conventional method. But there is an attraction about trying to maximise a situation that little bit more. But on the flip side is of course running the risk of having your hard work pre-race end in zero or much less too.
I'm talking more NH races than of course taking flat races, especially sprints in-play as that really is dangerous obviously.
Just curious what the opinion was of both strategies from a longer term profit angle from maybe those that have tried both strategies over time?
Cheers
To Hedge or not to Hedge?
Search 'hedge' on Peter's blog, this post is about not greening at all:
http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2011/03 ... -green-up/
http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2011/03 ... -green-up/
Personally, I do both.... sometimes I green... mostly I let my trades run... my reasoning is that I like to have the opportunity to win the days profit in one race and be finished for the day... as with Manangatang in the 12.25 today... I was finished for the day after just one race... but of course it doesn't always work out that way and they are the days of the slow grind... but usually at LEAST once a week I have a great first race and spend the rest of the day free with a big smile on my face...
http://www.decisionsciencenews.com/2014 ... rly-rains/ajdal wrote:Personally, I do both.... sometimes I green... mostly I let my trades run... my reasoning is that I like to have the opportunity to win the days profit in one race and be finished for the day... as with Manangatang in the 12.25 today... I was finished for the day after just one race... but of course it doesn't always work out that way and they are the days of the slow grind... but usually at LEAST once a week I have a great first race and spend the rest of the day free with a big smile on my face...
It's a very valid article and I've read it before... and I can't argue with it's findings... but to each their own... and I enjoy the free time much more than the lost potential profits.... I'm not a greedy man... my style suits me perfectly down to the ground... but many thanks for the thought to post that article.... it was appreciated by me for one...LinusP wrote: http://www.decisionsciencenews.com/2014 ... rly-rains/
i have a similar mentality (regards hitting arbitary profit that's above the norm)- just stop as you know in yourself what your average works out at and therefore, know that it's a good call for you. Of course, contrarian view would say that you could boost your average by continuing on such days, but it's all about quality of life as much as anything.ajdal wrote:It's a very valid article and I've read it before... and I can't argue with it's findings... but to each their own... and I enjoy the free time much more than the lost potential profits.... I'm not a greedy man... my style suits me perfectly down to the ground... but many thanks for the thought to post that article.... it was appreciated by me for one...LinusP wrote: http://www.decisionsciencenews.com/2014 ... rly-rains/
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Crazyskier
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Work to live, not live to work...jimibt wrote:ajdal wrote:it's all about quality of life as much as anything.LinusP wrote: http://www.decisionsciencenews.com/2014 ... rly-rains/
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spreadbetting
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Yep, I fail to see the mentality in stopping when things are going well but continuing when they're not. I know from my style of trading there's no way I can predict which races are going to win me the most so it's usually a case of plodding thru them. I'll take time out when I've things to do rather than treat myself because I've hit a target for the day.LinusP wrote:The idea is that you stop early when things are going badly.
I think it's fantastic that there are such differing views; this is a wonderful example of how traders considering the same issue can take completely different approaches depending on individual personality types... my style is a result of working as a pre-race market pricer for a bookmaking business for 2 decades prior to becoming a data analyst and that reasonably unique working history prepared me well to be fairly proficient at recognising value points within the book... but of the course the market doesn't always appreciate value, there are other factors that can override that consideration... which is an additional consideration for why I choose not to always green up...
On a separate point one of the posters mentioned working to a daily target... I certainly don't take that approach... but I do know what my average is pretty precisely... and just expanding on my personal trading style preference, I am definitely guilty of the emotional flaw that if I have won and later lost it back... it feels infinitely worse than the satisfaction(?) of winning and then winning more... strange and irrational... but in my case true... so I choose to avoid that feeling... and to be truly honest, I enjoy the spectacle of the race far more knowing that if it resulted in a certain way then it would be more profitable rather than a uniform approach... I am not talking about gambling (in the traditional sense), more rearranging the return distribution... according to my figures I'm no better off taking the approach I do, but taking into account emotions and time management, I certainly am.
Good luck to all, whichever approach you take.... there is no right or wrong imo... but there are pros and cons....
On a separate point one of the posters mentioned working to a daily target... I certainly don't take that approach... but I do know what my average is pretty precisely... and just expanding on my personal trading style preference, I am definitely guilty of the emotional flaw that if I have won and later lost it back... it feels infinitely worse than the satisfaction(?) of winning and then winning more... strange and irrational... but in my case true... so I choose to avoid that feeling... and to be truly honest, I enjoy the spectacle of the race far more knowing that if it resulted in a certain way then it would be more profitable rather than a uniform approach... I am not talking about gambling (in the traditional sense), more rearranging the return distribution... according to my figures I'm no better off taking the approach I do, but taking into account emotions and time management, I certainly am.
Good luck to all, whichever approach you take.... there is no right or wrong imo... but there are pros and cons....
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SeaHorseRacing
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I just think this approach is 3 months of winning to a disaster striking. Losing a years worth in one day and then spending the next 6 weeks making it worse.
I believe trading is about using a statistical edge over a period of time in which all bads will even out and over long term your profits steadily grow.
My view of your approach is almost the opposite of trading in which imo is not a sense of trading.
I believe trading should be systematic in every aspect rather then taking a profit and run or in your case stop for the day. It's about taking the opportunitys by the balls and grabbing them in a practised way.
This doesn't mean you have to trade everything but I believe stopping on a race is gambling. As there is no logical strategy behind it.
If it works for some then that is great and I wish you the best of luck but imo it's not the losing on a race that's a problem it's the effect of a disaster that it could do to you.
My approach is to treat most wins and losses to a similar emotional state and plug away at my edges. I think your method will make you happy for one after noon or make you sad cry for a month...
Your approach is to be happy everyday or by the first race. If you hit your winner you are happy for the day. When the next day comes you restart the process. Now if you hit a loser, then a loser then a loser you could wipe out a week/month of profit in a few hours now your pain out weights the graft for your happiness from your stop at a winner. Whereas trading is small controlled losses that are only really relevant at the end of the week/ month on payday.
If your stopping at a winner because your not greedy or some other reason this is not systematic or strategic. If you say you have your emotions under control why do you stop at a winner in the first race.
It is like people going racing who always back A P McCoy. Yes every time you go racing you probably have a winner and some days you win a fortune. If when you were born you were given a betting account in which you were only allowed to use the funds for ones reason and that was to gamble you soon realise that in fact your out of pocket. I think this would result in the same. Win most days but disaster will probably strike. Might take years though.
I'd rather be self satisfied and calm all day most days. With the occasional bubbling over and under emotions.
I believe gambles can't make money because you generally put 1 on to gain more than 1. But trading is about taken value continuously.
I'm not the most experienced trader but I'm starting to learn that you should teach yourself to be happy at the end of the month not the first race of the day and I don't think it's possible to profit long term with short term satisfaction.
I believe trading is about using a statistical edge over a period of time in which all bads will even out and over long term your profits steadily grow.
My view of your approach is almost the opposite of trading in which imo is not a sense of trading.
I believe trading should be systematic in every aspect rather then taking a profit and run or in your case stop for the day. It's about taking the opportunitys by the balls and grabbing them in a practised way.
This doesn't mean you have to trade everything but I believe stopping on a race is gambling. As there is no logical strategy behind it.
If it works for some then that is great and I wish you the best of luck but imo it's not the losing on a race that's a problem it's the effect of a disaster that it could do to you.
My approach is to treat most wins and losses to a similar emotional state and plug away at my edges. I think your method will make you happy for one after noon or make you sad cry for a month...
Your approach is to be happy everyday or by the first race. If you hit your winner you are happy for the day. When the next day comes you restart the process. Now if you hit a loser, then a loser then a loser you could wipe out a week/month of profit in a few hours now your pain out weights the graft for your happiness from your stop at a winner. Whereas trading is small controlled losses that are only really relevant at the end of the week/ month on payday.
If your stopping at a winner because your not greedy or some other reason this is not systematic or strategic. If you say you have your emotions under control why do you stop at a winner in the first race.
It is like people going racing who always back A P McCoy. Yes every time you go racing you probably have a winner and some days you win a fortune. If when you were born you were given a betting account in which you were only allowed to use the funds for ones reason and that was to gamble you soon realise that in fact your out of pocket. I think this would result in the same. Win most days but disaster will probably strike. Might take years though.
I'd rather be self satisfied and calm all day most days. With the occasional bubbling over and under emotions.
I believe gambles can't make money because you generally put 1 on to gain more than 1. But trading is about taken value continuously.
I'm not the most experienced trader but I'm starting to learn that you should teach yourself to be happy at the end of the month not the first race of the day and I don't think it's possible to profit long term with short term satisfaction.
Last edited by SeaHorseRacing on Wed Nov 16, 2016 12:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
If that post was in answer to my post to be completely honest I haven't got a clue what you're talking about and can't relate to it in any way.... I don't have disasters in the way you describe... it just isn't possible the way I trade... I trade safer than you could possibly imagine... but I do try to maximise the potential for my returns... I don't mean my reply to sound negative, just I can't relate personally to what you are saying...SeaHorseRacing wrote:I just think this approach is 3 months of winning to a disaster striking. Losing a years worth in one day and then spending the next 6 weeks making it worse.
This doesn't mean you have to trade everything but I believe stopping on a race is gambling. As there is no logical strategy behind it.
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SeaHorseRacing
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don't be sorry enjoying the discussion! I was just trying to explain that stopping for the day on a big enough win is the wrong mentality and generally not particularly you but for some it could spell disaster.ajdal wrote:If that post was in answer to my post to be completely honest I haven't got a clue what you're talking about and can't relate to it in any way.... I don't have disasters in the way you describe... it just isn't possible the way I trade... I trade safer than you could possibly imagine... but I do try to maximise the potential for my returns... I don't mean my reply to sound negative, just I can't relate personally to what you are saying...SeaHorseRacing wrote:I just think this approach is 3 months of winning to a disaster striking. Losing a years worth in one day and then spending the next 6 weeks making it worse.
This doesn't mean you have to trade everything but I believe stopping on a race is gambling. As there is no logical strategy behind it.
Not hedging in my view is a form of gambling. I believe trading is complete self control knowing you won't lose more than so and so. This method defy what I believe is trading and will make most people behave in away that will end in trading/financial disaster.
How?... it has been pointed out numerous times on other threads that the market is reasonably/very efficient... so how does redistributing the return so the rate varies lead to the potential for trading disaster and be almost anti-trading?
What you appear to be saying (to me) is that it is more profitable over the long term if you trade more markets... and that is of course potentially true, but you pay a price for that... and where do you draw the line?... that is a personal choice question.... but not a trading failure position...
What you appear to be saying (to me) is that it is more profitable over the long term if you trade more markets... and that is of course potentially true, but you pay a price for that... and where do you draw the line?... that is a personal choice question.... but not a trading failure position...
SHR,
I think you may have confused what the OP was getting at. He's saying that he doesn't green up, simply takes the trade as a *freebet* whereby you have zero liability on all other runners and a potential win amount on the target runner. I'm certain your alarm is based on imagining him going IP with an un settled trade. Quite the reverse is going on, and the worst case scenario is a £0 trade.
I think you may have confused what the OP was getting at. He's saying that he doesn't green up, simply takes the trade as a *freebet* whereby you have zero liability on all other runners and a potential win amount on the target runner. I'm certain your alarm is based on imagining him going IP with an un settled trade. Quite the reverse is going on, and the worst case scenario is a £0 trade.