What percentage horse win?

[ShaunWhite]

This thread from LinusP has a number of links to various other types of data avavlible
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=11883

Many thanks for the data links guys.... looks like it's time for another wild goose hunt, let's hope it lays golden eggs.

[Khloec]

without quite a dedicated session to mine the data, it's not that straightfwd. given free time, i'll look into it. unfortunately, the %ages do match consistently with the efficiency of the market. any strategy that you employ to take advantage of market inefficiencies will have to be very tight and will more than likely need to juggle in realtime, the friction between opposing runner prices.

From my own finding's i agree. It is actually quite amazing how the prices of runners at varying points of a race, be it pre off or in play, match very well with the results. There are numerous trading opportunities but they are all very tight, and to make them work well you are having to get the price you want within a maximum of 10 ticks, which doesn't sound too bad, but with the speed the in play market runs, catching these can be a headache, missing some which is bound to happen, especially at the price you want, lowers the overall effectiveness of the strategy, making it not worth the effort in the long run. Exploiting the friction as you say, is how i think it is best to look at it.

The figures Shaun was asking for...for one year cant remember which, think 2013 but they all similar. That's overall, some course/distances/types/grades are more profitable than others and some consistently so over the years. However, its not just the percentage winners that's important its the prices you get them at of course, no point getting 50% winners at 1.8.

Total Races :10086

Horse going off in 1st place that wins is : 3449
Percentage is 34.2%
Profit/Loss on BSP for £1 stake £70.04

Horse going off in 2nd place that wins is : 2098
Percentage is 20.7%
Profit/Loss on BSP for £1 stake £-114.4

Horse going off in 3rd place that wins is : 1434
Percentage is 14.2%
Profit/Loss on BSP for £1 stake £-146.24

[daveysam25]

Does anyone know win % of a horse first to be traded at 1.9 and 1.8 to on to win?