hey guys looking for anyone with a bit of experience to help me if my idea would work on not so the start of a horse race you set the system to put a £10 back bet on the favourite to win 3/4 into the races the favourite starts to drift away so using guardian you set a £20 lay bet when the odds reach around the 20/1 point. if it continues to lose then leaving you with £10 profit could this work ??
many thanks
looking for ideas
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10527
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
As macawboy says, winning favs that spike beyond 20 are really not uncommon, especially in close finishes of which there are several a day. And if a favourite looks genuinely beat or falls, then 20s will be gone in the blink of an eye, as will 30, 40 50 etc etc and there might only be a fiver to match with anyway.
Take a close look at your risk vs return...what starting odds is your favourite? If you're backing at Evens for a £10 gain and risking £400 to hedge it, then even without looking at data, I can promise you that the macawboy scenario (as i think it should be known from now on) will happen far more often than 1 in 40 races. My 'finger in the air' guess would be more like 1 in 10 or even less.
I don't want to lecture but consider all the possible scenarios and how often each might happen, and the p/l for each. eg
Fav wins uncontested
Fav spikes to >20 and wins
Fav loses and you don't get matched
Fav loses and you do get matched
There's also a huge amount of historical data available with in-play min/max odds you can analyse to see if your idea would have worked in the past...but given the huge resourses some people put into analysis and rapid trading, any straightforward edge you find comes with no guarentee of it working in the present.
..if you reply, stick a few full stops and commas in
Take a close look at your risk vs return...what starting odds is your favourite? If you're backing at Evens for a £10 gain and risking £400 to hedge it, then even without looking at data, I can promise you that the macawboy scenario (as i think it should be known from now on) will happen far more often than 1 in 40 races. My 'finger in the air' guess would be more like 1 in 10 or even less.
I don't want to lecture but consider all the possible scenarios and how often each might happen, and the p/l for each. eg
Fav wins uncontested
Fav spikes to >20 and wins
Fav loses and you don't get matched
Fav loses and you do get matched
There's also a huge amount of historical data available with in-play min/max odds you can analyse to see if your idea would have worked in the past...but given the huge resourses some people put into analysis and rapid trading, any straightforward edge you find comes with no guarentee of it working in the present.
..if you reply, stick a few full stops and commas in
I've got to say Shaun White... I love your posts... I reckon you'd be great fun on a piss up (unless you're teetotal)...
I've found that you tend to get a better pay off if you do the opposite to what appears logical and obvious... the flaw with obvious is nearly everybody is doing it... If that type of approach appeals to you, then you might have been onto something if you did the opposite and laid that favourite as he was cantering along with 1/2 mile left, with his rivals all under the whip and treading water behind and everyone is happily buying money... and be in position to back it on the spike when the panic sets in when it falters for a few strides (or more)... or vice versa... you'd be surprised.... an unexpected second wind is remarkably common in horse racing... horses by nature are pack animals... and what you are looking for is greed and panic over extending...
I'll probably get shot down for this post, but hey ho
Good luck mate... it looks like you're a Villa fan... good luck to them too...
I've found that you tend to get a better pay off if you do the opposite to what appears logical and obvious... the flaw with obvious is nearly everybody is doing it... If that type of approach appeals to you, then you might have been onto something if you did the opposite and laid that favourite as he was cantering along with 1/2 mile left, with his rivals all under the whip and treading water behind and everyone is happily buying money... and be in position to back it on the spike when the panic sets in when it falters for a few strides (or more)... or vice versa... you'd be surprised.... an unexpected second wind is remarkably common in horse racing... horses by nature are pack animals... and what you are looking for is greed and panic over extending...
I'll probably get shot down for this post, but hey ho
Good luck mate... it looks like you're a Villa fan... good luck to them too...
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10527
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
That's a nice thing to say ajdal, but I'm a terible drinking buddy. I'm such a light-weight these days. I go from happy to ill in about 3 pints.ajdal wrote:.I reckon you'd be great fun on a piss up (unless you're teetotal)...
Just wondered if you put your idea into practice and if you are doing ok with it?duggyavfc wrote:hey guys looking for anyone with a bit of experience to help me if my idea would work on not so the start of a horse race you set the system to put a £10 back bet on the favourite to win 3/4 into the races the favourite starts to drift away so using guardian you set a £20 lay bet when the odds reach around the 20/1 point. if it continues to lose then leaving you with £10 profit could this work ??
many thanks
Noticed a couple of favourites today, spiked out to over 20s in running and went on to win