Back Under 2.5. Early Goal Scenario. How do you trade out ?

[thephoenix]

Hi all,

If you back the under 2.5 goals market and someone scores within 2-5 minutes, what is the plan? Immediately trade out to conserve capital?

From a risk reward perspective I'm finding it hard to see how trading football can ever be possible with such random early goals. The last 3 games I've trading using this method have featured an early goal and then some with a second.

This is with research and odds below 2.0 at the off. The method at stakes of 300 ish , holding for 10-15 mins produces around £40 profit when successful but an early goal creates an immediate £150+ loss and this becomes nearly the entire stake with a 2nd.

Any advice on this?

[Dancho032]

i think it depends on how the games goes, if you did a research and it suppose to be really under game,players play slow,they keep the ball in the center and by luck a goal comes,
i think its ok to keep your trade and to wait for the price to come back again , but if the doesnt go as planed ,and its fast and attacking game probably its better to wait a little bit for the price to comes back and close on minus.
Its a very interesting topic i would like if more people comes and share their opinion and some other football strategies

[cybernet69]

Some research was done on the Over/Under 2.5 markets and long term betting on Unders was not profitable. I cant find the link at the moment but will post it when I do.

I use a ratings system and only bet on Overs when the odds are above 2. And place an insurance bet on 0-0. Obviously you need to calculate the correct stakes to use.

Cheers,

[Dancho032]

Some research was done on the Over/Under 2.5 markets and long term betting on Unders was not profitable. I cant find the link at the moment but will post it when I do.

I use a ratings system and only bet on Overs when the odds are above 2. And place an insurance bet on 0-0. Obviously you need to calculate the correct stakes to use.

Cheers,

Im not sure that what you say is correct but anyway if we are talking about trading i think backing the under its better ,because with every second you are gaining profit and you can close your trade whenever you want ,this is my opinion

[cybernet69]

Some research was done on the Over/Under 2.5 markets and long term betting on Unders was not profitable. I cant find the link at the moment but will post it when I do.

I use a ratings system and only bet on Overs when the odds are above 2. And place an insurance bet on 0-0. Obviously you need to calculate the correct stakes to use.

Cheers,

Im not sure that what you say is correct but anyway if we are talking about trading i think backing the under its better ,because with every second you are gaining profit and you can close your trade whenever you want ,this is my opinion

Not if you suddenly get an early goal.

[cyxstudio]

Hi all,

If you back the under 2.5 goals market and someone scores within 2-5 minutes, what is the plan? Immediately trade out to conserve capital?

From a risk reward perspective I'm finding it hard to see how trading football can ever be possible with such random early goals. The last 3 games I've trading using this method have featured an early goal and then some with a second.

This is with research and odds below 2.0 at the off. The method at stakes of 300 ish , holding for 10-15 mins produces around £40 profit when successful but an early goal creates an immediate £150+ loss and this becomes nearly the entire stake with a 2nd.

Any advice on this?

Trading the time decay strategy is soooooooooo newbie. every newbie had considered this strategy once. i have done it and wiped my bank a few times with this strategy.

I have given up trying to read the match and determine what is likely to happen in play.

What i learnt is to be successful with this method you need to observe how fast the under odds are dropping. It usually happens when the public is expecting high goal score and the game turns out boring, the odds will drop quick enough.


oh btw, i will exit my position, every time. Then i will review my trade again and see if i should go in at a higher price.

[chris2785]

Picking up peanuts in front of a steam roller springs to mind. A better way with this is to drip feed your stake back in slowly, reducing your liability as quick as possible, until its a free bet.

[spreadbetting]

From a risk reward perspective I'm finding it hard to see how trading football can ever be possible with such random early goals. The last 3 games I've trading using this method have featured an early goal and then some with a second.

This is with research and odds below 2.0 at the off. The method at stakes of 300 ish , holding for 10-15 mins produces around £40 profit when successful but an early goal creates an immediate £150+ loss and this becomes nearly the entire stake with a 2nd.

Any advice on this?

All depends if your research has shown those £40 wins far outweigh the £150 losses, if they do then keep on doing what you're doing. There are no easy profits in gambling and no simple method will give you a large return on your stake over time, you just need to accept that. Remember these random goals aren't as random as you think and most bookies will offer odds on the time of the first goal so you can see the likely probability of it occuring in the first 10 minutes anyway.

The only way we win trading/gambling is by obtaining value and either keeping it to conclusion or selling it off when it's either value to us or in our interests to do so. With inplay markets the main time to grab value is when people overeact to events on the pitch and bet offering value to others in their eagerness to get on or out. Overeacting to an early goal is just playing into the hands of others.

[Dancho032]

Hi all,

If you back the under 2.5 goals market and someone scores within 2-5 minutes, what is the plan? Immediately trade out to conserve capital?

From a risk reward perspective I'm finding it hard to see how trading football can ever be possible with such random early goals. The last 3 games I've trading using this method have featured an early goal and then some with a second.

This is with research and odds below 2.0 at the off. The method at stakes of 300 ish , holding for 10-15 mins produces around £40 profit when successful but an early goal creates an immediate £150+ loss and this becomes nearly the entire stake with a 2nd.

Any advice on this?

Trading the time decay strategy is soooooooooo newbie. every newbie had considered this strategy once. i have done it and wiped my bank a few times with this strategy.

I have given up trying to read the match and determine what is likely to happen in play.

What i learnt is to be successful with this method you need to observe how fast the under odds are dropping. It usually happens when the public is expecting high goal score and the game turns out boring, the odds will drop quick enough.


oh btw, i will exit my position, every time. Then i will review my trade again and see if i should go in at a higher price.

Can you suggest any profitable and reasonable strategy ?

[Sepoleanjel]

quote="thephoenix"]Hi all,

If you back the under 2.5 goals market and someone scores within 2-5 minutes, what is the plan? Immediately trade out to conserve capital?

From a risk reward perspective I'm finding it hard to see how trading football can ever be possible with such random early goals. The last 3 games I've trading using this method have featured an early goal and then some with a second.

This is with research and odds below 2.0 at the off. The method at stakes of 300 ish , holding for 10-15 mins produces around £40 profit when successful but an early goal creates an immediate £150+ loss and this becomes nearly the entire stake with a 2nd.

Any advice on this?[/quote]

Hi Buddy i had exactly same problem and tried found way how deal with this early goal because this strategy really work for me and time is your frend here. Likee you sad every one minute your profit grove when no goals. After some research i found one recovery plan. After first goal price go up i wait about 20 sec and again back under 2.5 with double stake and if no goal very quickly you out from minus trade. Of course this strategy work in low score games no some English premiere league.

Hope it help
Seeya Guyssss