Hi im fairly new to betangel and at the moment trying to trade on horse racing before the off. I find it hard noticing which way the market is going and at the moment usualy only get the direction of the market correct about 50% of the time. I know about weight of money however this sometimes has an oposite affect on the markets and even though the weight of money is strong in one direction the outcome is in the oposite direction. I was just wondering if anyone could tell me any other signalls or things to spot, look out for which will help me have a better chance of spotting the market direction correctly.
Many thanks Billy.
Spotting Market Trends
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Keep an eye on the other horses in the market assuming you are referring to racing markets. If something shortens something(s) will lengthen and vice versa.
Thank You.-
dan_payne182
- Posts: 93
- Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 3:46 pm
Is it normally the case that the favorite will lengthen/shorten first? or is it all like for like? i'm seeing the prices change as a result of each other but to take advantage of this there must be a delay in one affecting the other? instead of trying to jump on something thats already happened....if i'm making senseandyfuller wrote:Keep an eye on the other horses in the market assuming you are referring to racing markets. If something shortens something(s) will lengthen and vice versa.
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lilgreenback
- Posts: 211
- Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 11:28 am
Hi,
Also look out for the volume that has been traded at various prices, the bulges show how the money has been matched.
Look at the BF graph and the advanced charting graph to see the peaks and troughs. Remember that they may follow the trend again or break through above or below.
Also watch your timer before the off as sometimes the opposite of what you expect to happen will or won't i.e. you expect people to exit their positions and a nice drift to occur only to watch it steam in.
Events that occur such as the horse refusing to play ball can cause a run on the price and once the money starts moving due to an opinion or a comment by the trainer etc then that can cause the price to swing in a certain direction.
Also remember to look out for spoof money and the speed at which it is being matched money, dosh may be above or below a selection but it can be pulled at an instant.
Cheers.
LilGB
Also look out for the volume that has been traded at various prices, the bulges show how the money has been matched.
Look at the BF graph and the advanced charting graph to see the peaks and troughs. Remember that they may follow the trend again or break through above or below.
Also watch your timer before the off as sometimes the opposite of what you expect to happen will or won't i.e. you expect people to exit their positions and a nice drift to occur only to watch it steam in.
I would think in general (someone more knowledgable will correct me or give a better answer)that the Fav will be making up the majority of the volume (or it would not be the fav) Hence any change will affect it more directly than others; but in some ways it may depend on the strength of the money that's coming for it as well as the prices they are all trading at.dan_payne182 wrote:Is it normally the case that the favorite will lengthen/shorten first? or is it all like for like? i'm seeing the prices change
Events that occur such as the horse refusing to play ball can cause a run on the price and once the money starts moving due to an opinion or a comment by the trainer etc then that can cause the price to swing in a certain direction.
Also remember to look out for spoof money and the speed at which it is being matched money, dosh may be above or below a selection but it can be pulled at an instant.
Cheers.
LilGB
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BLUFFdisko
- Posts: 30
- Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 11:34 am
People always talk about the weight of money, but personally i never use WOM to predict the marked, i always try to look at the bigger picture, and try to figure out the psykology patterns of each market. example.
if there have been traded a lot of money on a outsider(not the 1 or 2 favorite), i think to my self, that the favorite have to be layed at the lowest possible price, because i dont beleive that it is going to steam like mad, because of the way the betting have been on the other horses. and again if the grapfh of almost every horse is showing a small driff aside from the favorite, i would want to back it at its highest price.
You should visit adam heatcotes blog, as he have a post there on his entry points and his exit point, they are very usefull.
Sorry for my english, but im from Denmark
Best of luck
if there have been traded a lot of money on a outsider(not the 1 or 2 favorite), i think to my self, that the favorite have to be layed at the lowest possible price, because i dont beleive that it is going to steam like mad, because of the way the betting have been on the other horses. and again if the grapfh of almost every horse is showing a small driff aside from the favorite, i would want to back it at its highest price.
You should visit adam heatcotes blog, as he have a post there on his entry points and his exit point, they are very usefull.
Sorry for my english, but im from Denmark
Best of luck
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BLUFFdisko
- Posts: 30
- Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 11:34 am
People always talk about the weight of money, but personally i never use WOM to predict the marked, i always try to look at the bigger picture, and try to figure out the psykology patterns of each market. example.
if there have been traded a lot of money on a outsider(not the 1 or 2 favorite), i think to my self, that the favorite have to be layed at the lowest possible price, because i dont beleive that it is going to steam like mad, because of the way the betting have been on the other horses. and again if the grapfh of almost every horse is showing a small driff aside from the favorite, i would want to back it at its highest price.
You should visit adam heatcotes blog, as he have a post there on his entry points and his exit point, they are very usefull.
Sorry for my english, but im from Denmark
Best of luck
if there have been traded a lot of money on a outsider(not the 1 or 2 favorite), i think to my self, that the favorite have to be layed at the lowest possible price, because i dont beleive that it is going to steam like mad, because of the way the betting have been on the other horses. and again if the grapfh of almost every horse is showing a small driff aside from the favorite, i would want to back it at its highest price.
You should visit adam heatcotes blog, as he have a post there on his entry points and his exit point, they are very usefull.
Sorry for my english, but im from Denmark
Best of luck
Hi Billy,
RE your comment: I find it hard noticing which way the market is going and at the moment usualy only get the direction of the market correct about 50% of the time.
Mathematically it doesn't matter too much what your strike rate is. It is the combination of strike rate and amount won/lost at each trade that is important. For instance, you could have a strike as low as 10% as long as you make over 10-11 times more on the winning trades as you lose on the losing ones.
If you are using stops to exit and a 1 point profit exit this will define your minimum needed strike rate.
Cheers.
RE your comment: I find it hard noticing which way the market is going and at the moment usualy only get the direction of the market correct about 50% of the time.
Mathematically it doesn't matter too much what your strike rate is. It is the combination of strike rate and amount won/lost at each trade that is important. For instance, you could have a strike as low as 10% as long as you make over 10-11 times more on the winning trades as you lose on the losing ones.
If you are using stops to exit and a 1 point profit exit this will define your minimum needed strike rate.
Cheers.