Hi,
I know that sometimes pace setters do actually win horse races. But my question is how do in-play market makers treat these. Do they price them down if they are leading or are they to a certain extent ignored or do the odds reduce at a lower rate ?
Example:
Horse A has the highest pace form rating in the race. But has never one a race and fades early. Goes flying from the start and is leading by 5 or so lengths. Would the trackside market makers price it as the in-play fav or ?
Cheers,
Probably a dumb question
-
steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
They would tend to come in on their price but if a 100/1 shot comes in to say 20s for example, it depends if you feel it would be worth laying and exposing yourself at 20s and at what stake.
You will find that a lot of reasonably high prices horses move in after the start. I guess this is due to people laying small amounts before the off, looking for cheap money and the market tries to put these in a loosing position to pressure them to sell at a loss.
You will find that a lot of reasonably high prices horses move in after the start. I guess this is due to people laying small amounts before the off, looking for cheap money and the market tries to put these in a loosing position to pressure them to sell at a loss.
-
SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
Certainly not a dumb question in fact a very good, difficult and complex question.
Generally as a rule of thumb horses that lead a race their odds will generally shorten, however if the horse is a big price, let's say 200 it's quite likely that the price won't actually move much.
As it's odds reflect very little chance.
It all depends on the way the horse is being ridden in the class of event. So for example if it was a top quality race with the best horses running. If the favourite went off and literally went a crazy pace it would be very likely the odds would retract and shorten however if it was a low grade affair and the horse just bolted on it would initially retract but suddenly start to drift.
There are so many angles to look at this. A 5 furlong sprint will always see a price retraction regardless of price whereas a 3 mile chase would require a little bit of skill to assess.
If the horse in front is very short odds like 1.11 or something then the odds will hardly shorten at the begging of the race.
A horse that looks to start with a clear advantage will shorten regardless of price especially pre off.
If a horse is known to be a front runner that runs out of steam won't shorten as much as a hard running stayer.
I think most in play prices reflect not just wether a horse is in the lead but how it has a lead. How it's being ridden and its opponents.
Generally as a rule of thumb horses that lead a race their odds will generally shorten, however if the horse is a big price, let's say 200 it's quite likely that the price won't actually move much.
As it's odds reflect very little chance.
It all depends on the way the horse is being ridden in the class of event. So for example if it was a top quality race with the best horses running. If the favourite went off and literally went a crazy pace it would be very likely the odds would retract and shorten however if it was a low grade affair and the horse just bolted on it would initially retract but suddenly start to drift.
There are so many angles to look at this. A 5 furlong sprint will always see a price retraction regardless of price whereas a 3 mile chase would require a little bit of skill to assess.
If the horse in front is very short odds like 1.11 or something then the odds will hardly shorten at the begging of the race.
A horse that looks to start with a clear advantage will shorten regardless of price especially pre off.
If a horse is known to be a front runner that runs out of steam won't shorten as much as a hard running stayer.
I think most in play prices reflect not just wether a horse is in the lead but how it has a lead. How it's being ridden and its opponents.
-
SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
Additionally thought I'd say this as it's one of the worse parts of racing I don't like and annoys me.
Now and again you will see a race where there is a clear front runner according to previous form. However when the drift heavily they usually start at the back of the pack.
Same as horses with poor form. Where all there runs have poor form and off the pace running and the day they win they make all the running to land a gamble.
Next time you see an Aiden Obrien horse backed off the boards the usually make the running. Time after time his horses do that.
Now and again you will see a race where there is a clear front runner according to previous form. However when the drift heavily they usually start at the back of the pack.
Same as horses with poor form. Where all there runs have poor form and off the pace running and the day they win they make all the running to land a gamble.
Next time you see an Aiden Obrien horse backed off the boards the usually make the running. Time after time his horses do that.