laying greyhounds

[newaustralian]

I am asking for opinions about laying greyhound races. Using the data supplied by Betfair I am able on many races to determine the 3 slowest dogs over the race distance (I use an average of the last two races of the dog over the race distance). I also determine the two slowest starters using the average time of the last two races over the race distance. Using this data and the information that slow starting dogs usually don’t win and slow dogs usually do no win. I lay a dog that is one of the slow starters as well as one of the 3 slowest dogs over the distance. As I live in Australia I am unable to lay on many races however on the races that fit the requirements I am winning using a fixed bet. It would be great if you could offer a point of view

[SeaHorseRacing]

I am asking for opinions about laying greyhound races. Using the data supplied by Betfair I am able on many races to determine the 3 slowest dogs over the race distance (I use an average of the last two races of the dog over the race distance). I also determine the two slowest starters using the average time of the last two races over the race distance. Using this data and the information that slow starting dogs usually don’t win and slow dogs usually do no win. I lay a dog that is one of the slow starters as well as one of the 3 slowest dogs over the distance. As I live in Australia I am unable to lay on many races however on the races that fit the requirements I am winning using a fixed bet. It would be great if you could offer a point of view

If I could add anything of any use to your post I shall try.
I am victim of this myself for many years.
What most people try to do is to find a bet that wins alot more then it losses. With your attempt to find the slowest dog unless you can average a 95% strike rate or something then to be honest any greyhound price would be fine. However what you should be looking to do is to find value not the slowest dog. For example you need to beat the odds. So if you beleive you have a method of identifying a dog that loses a lot what you need to do is be laying at value. Don't just lay the slowest dog. Lay the slowest dogs that are too shortly priced. Find out your strike rate and find out what a very coming price is of those dogs.

where some people go wrong again is they then would only lay the shortest odds that apply but what happens then is you have so little bets that you find out either it's not profitable or your just make the smallest profit over a long period of time.

rather then looking for loses look for what you beleive to be missed priced greyhounds. You want to be laying greyhounds that are priced let's say 2.50 when really there odds should be 3.5. You could have a greyhound priced at 50 and that could still be a value lay.

hope this enlightens some help

[newaustralian]

thanks gambling can be lonely so I am so pleased to read your suggestion

[newaustralian]

Thanks once again for your comments - having considered them in depth being in Australia the only information is from the form, betfair odds and the odds from a betting firm. The combination of the slower dogs as well as the slowest (2) starters indicate the chance of NOT winning. By laying the selection ( it has surprised me the few dogs that fit the rule) or in a number of races - dutching - all except the selected dog for a fixed liability ( in my case $200) I am winning 85% of the races with an average odds 5.5. Over the past 50 races I am in profit just over $300 or $6.00 per race. I realise the sample is very small and I may be only lucky but at this stage it appears worth testing. Further comments would be appreciated - have a great new year. In a race this morning - Dogs 2,4,3,were the slowest over the distance and dogs 1 & 4 were the slowest starters ( therefore Lay 4) the race results were 2,3,& 6. I was all smiles as I was also a winner - $40 in this case. In the first at sheffield the lay would be 3 - not layed as the price high

[Sepoleanjel]

I am asking for opinions about laying greyhound races. Using the data supplied by Betfair I am able on many races to determine the 3 slowest dogs over the race distance (I use an average of the last two races of the dog over the race distance). I also determine the two slowest starters using the average time of the last two races over the race distance. Using this data and the information that slow starting dogs usually don’t win and slow dogs usually do no win. I lay a dog that is one of the slow starters as well as one of the 3 slowest dogs over the distance. As I live in Australia I am unable to lay on many races however on the races that fit the requirements I am winning using a fixed bet. It would be great if you could offer a point of view

Hi

From where you have this Betfair data ? im looking on betfair website but dont see this data what you talking about there.

Cheers

[newaustralian]

Morning - on my betfair screen once I have loaded a greyhound race on the top ( just above the amount matched and refresh) it has three tabs - Radio, Tote and greyhound form . The last tab give one the results of the last 5 runs for each of the started. I use that data in my selection of a lay

[Sepoleanjel]

Morning - on my betfair screen once I have loaded a greyhound race on the top ( just above the amount matched and refresh) it has three tabs - Radio, Tote and greyhound form . The last tab give one the results of the last 5 runs for each of the started. I use that data in my selection of a lay

Hi

Thank you for quick respond. I found it later today. Here in UK is evening 21:39 Ok back to game, I been tried today your strategy all day long. On beginig was all good nice profits after every race but later i had big loses. Can you explain which data exactly you using to select slowest dog. Im asking because there is like :

Winners at track: 3, 5 Quickest race time: 3
Winners at grade: Quickest break: 3
Winners over distance: 3, 5 Most wins: 3

Which from this you exactly looking for and how is your trading
going so far with this strategy ?

Cheers
Best Regards

[newaustralian]

Morning. When you open the data you have a whole screen of data. I download this data in to excel with produces the table below. Let me assume the race is 470 ( I don’t know if it is yards or not)
Sum of the last two races times of same distance
Times Fastest * 3 Start Fastest *4
Skippys Meg 1 56.77 8.96
Ainthehandsome 2 56.13 56.13 8.89 8.89
Rollinginthedeep 3 56.33 56.33 8.77 8.77
Ballinclare Lynx 4 56.96 8.88 8.88
Edgars Beauty 5 56.03 56.03 8.89
Somemothehild 6 56.58 8.87 8.87


Note I would lay box 1 provided to price was excessively large. Otherwise no bet. The reason being that box 1 was a slow dog in running and starting.

If the chart was as below I would not consider a bet as no dog fits the requirement - slow dog with slow start time
Sum of the last two races of same distance
Times Fastest * 3 Start Fastest *4
Skippys Meg 1 56.77 8.96 8.77
Ainthehandsome 2 56.13 56.13 8.89 8.89
Rollinginthedeep 3 56.33 56.33 8.77
Ballinclare Lynx 4 56.96 8.88 8.88
Edgars Beauty 5 56.03 56.03 8.89
Somemoerschild 6 56.58 8.87 8.87


To your other question - I am winning but am refining race type. For example distance races seem no to produce enough winners and as you can get handicap races are no go.

[Crazyskier]

I made more on the doggies than the horses in the last 3 months BF P&L.

One tip I'll give you is that the Racing Post selection is quite often 1st or second. I don't recommend blindly backing them, but if odds of 3+ they are often worth a place bet...

CS

[Sepoleanjel]

Morning. When you open the data you have a whole screen of data. I download this data in to excel with produces the table below. Let me assume the race is 470 ( I don’t know if it is yards or not)
Sum of the last two races times of same distance
Times Fastest * 3 Start Fastest *4
Skippys Meg 1 56.77 8.96
Ainthehandsome 2 56.13 56.13 8.89 8.89
Rollinginthedeep 3 56.33 56.33 8.77 8.77
Ballinclare Lynx 4 56.96 8.88 8.88
Edgars Beauty 5 56.03 56.03 8.89
Somemothehild 6 56.58 8.87 8.87


Note I would lay box 1 provided to price was excessively large. Otherwise no bet. The reason being that box 1 was a slow dog in running and starting.

If the chart was as below I would not consider a bet as no dog fits the requirement - slow dog with slow start time
Sum of the last two races of same distance
Times Fastest * 3 Start Fastest *4
Skippys Meg 1 56.77 8.96 8.77
Ainthehandsome 2 56.13 56.13 8.89 8.89
Rollinginthedeep 3 56.33 56.33 8.77
Ballinclare Lynx 4 56.96 8.88 8.88
Edgars Beauty 5 56.03 56.03 8.89
Somemoerschild 6 56.58 8.87 8.87


To your other question - I am winning but am refining race type. For example distance races seem no to produce enough winners and as you can get handicap races are no go.

Thank you Australian for all this info

[Sepoleanjel]

I made more on the doggies than the horses in the last 3 months BF P&L.

One tip I'll give you is that the Racing Post selection is quite often 1st or second. I don't recommend blindly backing them, but if odds of 3+ they are often worth a place bet...

CS

Hello Crazyskier

We are talking here about laying slow dogs not backing. Whats its your strategy by betting on dogs ? How you choice which dog you bet and why ?

Thank you

Cheers

[Crazyskier]

I made more on the doggies than the horses in the last 3 months BF P&L.

One tip I'll give you is that the Racing Post selection is quite often 1st or second. I don't recommend blindly backing them, but if odds of 3+ they are often worth a place bet...

CS

Hello Crazyskier

We are talking here about laying slow dogs not backing. Whats its your strategy by betting on dogs ? How you choice which dog you bet and why ?

Thank you
Cheers

I know you're laying, however I suspect that the 10+ odds on outsiders that often do win or place mean this is not necessarily profitable long term. A small losing streak at the often huge odds BF has for the 5th and 6th dogs are simply too high to lay profitably long term IMO.

See below and my historic posts for my penny-pinching and gap-finding strategies that pertain to both the doggies and the nags.

I won't give away the strategy, however the less-is-more is an idea. The typical strike rate is around 80% of events staked on, with the typical stake under £5 liability to return 8-40p per trade ONLY.

There are some minor manual adjustments if I have the time / inclination, but the vast majority are automated.

As you can see, pennies make pounds. Patience, discipline and consistency are everything in this game if you're to stay long term.

Good luck.

CS

[Sepoleanjel]

I made more on the doggies than the horses in the last 3 months BF P&L.

One tip I'll give you is that the Racing Post selection is quite often 1st or second. I don't recommend blindly backing them, but if odds of 3+ they are often worth a place bet...

CS

Thank you for info

[newaustralian]

I would like some comments if possible.
I look at the last 2 races (over the current race distance) and rank the dogs from the fastest to the slowest. The fastest 3 plus one other I dutch to win $26.00. The 4th selection is the fav if not one of the original 3 or the fastest starter of the unselected dogs. I do not dutch sprints or handicaps. I only dutch if the risk (the amount I could lose if one of the selected dogs does not win) is less than 3 times the estimated win i.e. $80 if I am attempting to win $26. I have had 69 bets over the past two days with 59 wins. The average win was $21.6 and the loss was $62 – profit $619.00. It is looking good at this stage. Your comments may make it better. To those who are wondering why I share I want all readers to win.

[Sepoleanjel]

I would like some comments if possible.
I look at the last 2 races (over the current race distance) and rank the dogs from the fastest to the slowest. The fastest 3 plus one other I dutch to win $26.00. The 4th selection is the fav if not one of the original 3 or the fastest starter of the unselected dogs. I do not dutch sprints or handicaps. I only dutch if the risk (the amount I could lose if one of the selected dogs does not win) is less than 3 times the estimated win i.e. $80 if I am attempting to win $26. I have had 69 bets over the past two days with 59 wins. The average win was $21.6 and the loss was $62 – profit $619.00. It is looking good at this stage. Your comments may make it better. To those who are wondering why I share I want all readers to win.

Hi Australian
First sorry for short reply but I'm on mobile still in work.later i reply longer. I'm using same strategy about 2 weeks. Dutching 4 fastest dogs from 6. Everything looks fine till yesterday when I had 3 losses in row. From this moment i stopped. Because I was doing recovery (3 bullets system) what you can see in binary options. When you have lost you have 3 bullets for full recovery. i used this syste, because i never had 3 loses in row till yesterday. I cleared my trading account.. I'm thinking strategy was ok just need find way how to safely recovery recovery from lost.
Hope my view of this helped and waiting for your opinion.