My mistakes

The sport of kings.
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motorhead
Posts: 105
Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 2:43 pm

I've decided to write about these last months:

One of my common mistakes is to enter in the market too early, even when there are only ten thousand pounds matched.
As a consequence when money comes in I end up being in the wrong position 60-70% of times.
I guess this error is due to my anxiety of making profit that pushes me to enter in the market with relatively (for that particular moment) high stakes hoping to be on the right side when big money comes in which means many ticks and a big profit.
With evening races and many meetings is not uncommon to experience this situation even when there are only 2 or 3 minutes left before the start of a race.
The thought of having only a couple of minutes to find a good chance to profit probably is also another reason for my anxiety.
Basically I'm not a scalper though I tend to mix my strategy even in the same race.
Of course entering in the market very early makes me very 'visible' to the others. I'm sure everyone would spot what I'm trying to do most of the times and seems like the do in fact cause as soon as I get in the market moves in the opposite direction.
This unless I choose to be even more visible putting up to 800 or 1k pounds, in that case I obtain a market movement in my favour, the negative consequence is that I cannot always take advantage of it since there's often a big rebound in the opposite direction.
Talking about being very visible or not leds me to talk about the one-click interface and the ladder.
In fact I don't know why I'm using the one-click screen I'm much mure prudent, I use to set a 8 or 10 pounds autostake tick size and I can say the that I'm quite invisible in the market. My explanation would be that I'm not subconsciously influenced by money outside the 'boxes' which are on the contrary visible in the ladder mode.
Today I gave it a try using just the one-click mode and stakes suggested and it was good, gaining an average of 4 £ per race. There are however two things that I'm worred about: it's extremely annoying and knowing myself this can be very dangerous.
Second thing is that I've just learned (after months :oops: ) to use the stop loss function in the ladder by right clicking the odds, this feature has given me so much more confidence that I'd like to use it with the same ease in the one-click mode as in the ladder which is not quite possible. I don't use the 'Offeset by' option so I can't put a stop loss where I'd like (I'm very concerned about spikes and similar movements when I'm in the one-click mode).

Antoher one of my usual mistakes is to trade high odds like <15 or 20. I got my backs matched, when it comes to lay there's no money at all. Peter talked about it in the mp3 I found here in the forum.
However I think these errors should be easy to manage with some discipline avoiding the big odds.

Charts; I don't find the chart in the 'enhance ladder' mode particularly usefeul for my decisions which is probably a big lack. I do have a brief look at candlesticks charts but even here, I don't base my decisions solely on them. I find more useful the normal odds-volume chart, it helps me to read a trend end eventually go against it (according to the volume) as I often do with not bad results.

I've without a doubt a gambler personality, after 4-5 bad trades I start to gamble in-play and on other sports also because my bank starts to be probably too small after many wrong trades. At the end of the day the result is always the same; empty account.
I've lost about 7k £ in the last two months so I'm facing a very difficult period.
Zenyatta
Posts: 1143
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2010 4:17 pm

Your mistakes are probably nothing compared to mine, I'm the world's worst trader so far (although recently there have been some encourging signs I may be turning things around). I've lost about $1k since using BetAngel over several months, and may have to call it quits soon unless its clear I have turned the corner.

Personally I find an ordinary job easier than trading. Worse, when the job is paying negative income and you keep take taking a beating over and over no matter what you try, it's utterly soul-destroying.

The critical market moves (in horse racing at least) seem to occur in literally milliseconds, if you don't recognize and react to a trend at the very start or end (and the window of opportunaty is literally millseconds) your balls seem to be toast. Any number of times, I've glanced away from the screen for only a second, or been slightly distracted, and suddenly the price has jumped right away from me. I'm just not reacting fast enough :(

The smart money seems to be going on closer and closer towards the off, its gotten to the point where in some cases its only going in the last 30 seconds even. Perhaps the market is getting tougher?
hgodden
Posts: 1759
Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 2:13 pm

Putting strategies aside for one minute, if you've lost 7k in the last 3 months then assuming you're not very wealthy and can afford to lose it, then you clearly have a problem.

Unless you have found workable strategies and found that somehow for you it has 'clicked', you really shouldn't be trading with any more than the £2 minimum, nobody should! No offense but chucking 800 or 1k in without having an edge in the markets is total madness!

You've already identified that your gambling mentality is holding you back. This is common for a lot of people. Yet trading with large amount without an edge IS gambling. Trading only becomes 'superior' to gambling when you do have an edge.

In my opinion the first thing you should do immediately is withdraw everything in your BF account except say £30, in order to protect your money. Accept how much you lost and take it on the chin, trying to get it back will only cost you more. Give yourself a few days off in order to refresh your mind a bit and if you feel like trading again, start again with £2 stakes, no more than that. If you find an edge in the markets (tbh you're highly, highly unlikely to be given an edge by anyone) and find that it really does work over a long period of time, then you can start slowly increasing your stakes.

I spent many months trying things out and learning from the markets using only £2 stakes. Once I had an edge it was quite natural to then increase my stakes and start making money. But if I'd have chucked money in to begin with just like you I'd have lost hand over foot, and I imagine the kind of stress it would have caused would have prevented me from learning and evolving. When you trade with £2 stakes you can focus fully on what you should be doing, learning about the markets, rather than trying to make money. Money will only follow when you have an edge, and since you don't you shouldn't be throwing it in.

If you carry on like that you'll just end up digging yourself further into a hole.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

I agree.

Peter -

Would it be possible to have the facility to lay under the minimum 2 pound stake please?

This would allow someone starting out to trade with 2 pound lay liabilities.

Jeff
hgodden wrote: You really shouldn't be trading with
any more than the £2 minimum, nobody [starting out] should!
Zenyatta
Posts: 1143
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2010 4:17 pm

One life lession from trading is that if you are in a bad job, relationship, situation, etc etc. you need to STOP LOSS at the point its clear your position cannot be recovered, don't let it snow-ball.
JacoboPolavieja
Posts: 91
Joined: Thu Sep 10, 2009 6:00 pm

Totally agree with hgooden.

I've trying to trade for a while now... I reached a point whre I thought I had it, so I increased my stakes and it all worked well for some days. Then, rare enough, I had 3 loosing days in a row where I lost more than I had won the previous week. I had to step back, go back to 2€ stakes, and restudy the whole thing.

Still trying to know what the hell happened... but I'm not upping stakes again till I clearly know some new things and have a longer winning period.


I think of trading as any other thing... some are born with natural habilities towards it, some others don't (I'm clearly in this group!), but everyone has to learn and train, learn and train...
Keep it low and learn the whys is the best advice trading-wise.

Cheers!
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CaerMyrddin
Posts: 1271
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am

I couldn't avoid commenting this one:

Someone who is putting £1k before the market is well formed is purely gambling. Gambling that the odds will go in their favour, but a gamble anyway...

So I guess you have a gamble issue and you should stop doing it asap...
Alpha322
Posts: 931
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2009 4:45 pm

That is madness. If you have £1000 divide it by 50. you could only blow it if you have 500 tick loss, so therefore £2 is the max tick size
davy
Posts: 30
Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 11:04 pm

I feel for you Motorhead. I know what stage you are at and what you are going through, I have been there myself. A gambler at heart and for many years, like you I found trading very difficult. I have even been on Peter’s courses and still could not get to grips with it. I have lost count of the times I have given it up and gone back to gambling, only now have I realised gambling will never pay, at least not for me. I have now come to the conclusion I must make a success of trading or give it all up. I have now gone back to trading and will stay here. There are two things that drive me to make a success of it, they are, If other people can do it, then so can I, and the other is, whilst trying to make it work I have lost over £100,000 and still owe it. If I cannot make it work I must declare myself Bankrupt. If nothing else my friend this alone is a great motivator. I have started from scratch and developed my own strategy. This is working for me, and I now feel I can make it pay. I make between £70 - £120 per day using £100 stakes, I dare not increase my stakes and will not for at least two or three months, and even then it will be slowly, slowly. It can be done Motorhead but first you must deal with your mind, it is your attitude which is defeating you, your strategy will come next, and I feel must be developed by yourself. Once you are happy with it, stick with it, no one wins every time. I wish you luck my friend, I feel you have a long way to go.
JacoboPolavieja
Posts: 91
Joined: Thu Sep 10, 2009 6:00 pm

I'm sorry guys... I just don't think anyone can lose 100,000 on 2 stakes. If that's the case, you should really abandon (and I'm not a keen person on this word). If it's because you're playing with higher stakes (lot higher) then, in my view, it's as simple as "if you don't win with 2 stakes you're not gonna win with 100s stakes".

I'm sorry to hear these stories. I really wish you all the best and good luck in your trading but, please, don't lose your mind and life on this. It's really not worth it.

Cheers!
davy
Posts: 30
Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 11:04 pm

In order to appreciate where the losses come from, it is not a case of two stakes. You must understand how a gamblers mind works. A gambler cannot accept he must lose sometimes. When a trade moves against him, he sits and waits hoping it will move in his favour. When it doesn’t he lets it go in play, sometimes he wins, sometimes he looses. When he wins he wins small time, when he looses he looses big time. When he looses he thinks I must get that back, I won’t go in play again, I must increase my stakes. So on and on it goes. I have my own business, which is very profitable and gives me access to high levels of credit and the banks have so far turned a blind eye. But that may not always be the case in this day and age. If they ask for it back, I go under. My gamblers mind is now switched off. I no longer think of horses, jockeys or trainers, I cannot even remember the name of a horse I have just traded, all my mind works on is the direction of a price. So far it’s working.
motorhead
Posts: 105
Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 2:43 pm

Thanks to all for the comments, I'm having a break now and I'll maybe try again with much lower stakes in the future. I've self-limited my monthly losses as well, a step I should have taken ages ago.

davy wrote: This is working for me, and I now feel I can make it pay. I make between £70 - £120 per day using £100 stakes
I'm glad to hear that someone has been able to make it work after a difficult period.
lilgreenback
Posts: 211
Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 11:28 am

Hi,

I'm not the greatest at taking advice my own advice especially if I think I'm right and I can't be wrong can I. As I know I can't be wrong and I hate admitting to any mistake. These are the things often said just before you head on going IN PLAY. Then ending in disaster AGAIN.

It's a hard thing to do but stop trying to win, the harder you try the more pressure you put on yourself. The more you need to win the more likely it is that you will make the wrong decisions starting the downward spiral.

Take time to down load the free trial of camasia or camstudio and record the market and yourself trading. Or even not trading just moving the cursor (coloured) over the screen and write down when and why you would put the cash down.

Now replay it what do you see my immediate answer was how P*** Poor and ponderous my decision making was. Now back to the bit at the top of the page, "I can't be wrong can I" now can you answer honestly.

Go back to basics again (no not asking Edwina Currie how she likes her Peas) I mean 2 quid stakes No In play, NO NO In Play Ever cut it and scratch it.

Watch the markets and rewind them and watch. The problem with not doing this is you can't remember what you have done in the past. You think you do but only remember the good or bad trades and not the reason of how it developed.

Hope some of this makes sense had to rush so soz for the typos. I have by no means cracked it no way but there is a bit of light at the tunnels end howver dim.

Take it easy

LIlGB
JacoboPolavieja
Posts: 91
Joined: Thu Sep 10, 2009 6:00 pm

motorhead wrote:Thanks to all for the comments, I'm having a break now and I'll maybe try again with much lower stakes in the future. I've self-limited my monthly losses as well, a step I should have taken ages ago.

davy wrote: This is working for me, and I now feel I can make it pay. I make between £70 - £120 per day using £100 stakes
I'm glad to hear that someone has been able to make it work after a difficult period.
Just to encourage you... after a difficult period I seem to be getting to it again... this time with more knowledge and therefore more feeling more secure about what I do. Just today rised my stakes... but have been winning consistently with 2€ stakes for a while.

As I tell you not to go mad, I also tell you that, if you really like it, keep going with it... just in a much safer manner.

I think what lilgreenback said is a classic... most of us don't care of :). If you're wrong, you're wrong... go back and review it. You can't be right all the time, but if day aafter day you're losing you have to reconsider things. One thing that completely changed my view was being with a pro trader (Jack Birkhead, who has been living in Madrid till now). Just seeing how naturally he admited his mistakes and losses completely took my stress out in accepting my own mistakes.

As I said... play with 2€ stakes. If at the end of the day you're losing, go back and think about why, what you're doing wrong, what you may do different the next time, reserach from other experienced people... but don't try to win, try to learn. Profits will come after learning. If you just think you don't have the time to learn and need the cash now and at the moment... then please step back and do any other thing as this will wipe you out making it all just worse.

Good luck in the future. Cheers!
motorhead
Posts: 105
Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 2:43 pm

@lilgreenback
Thanks for the suggestions, without a doubt Ishould have started with very small stakes as you said and possibly examining my errors. I've come to the conclusion that even when I had positive days in the past it was solely due to luck, as someone already said I was betting on the market to go in a certain direction without having a clue most of the times. Although there were times when I was very positive about a certain movement and I guess that was the real 'edge'I should pursue.

As for the camtasia records; I'm actually trying to find another software cause camtasia seems to be really to ram consuming and when I used it I could barely launch fireforx (after about 2 minutes of waiting).

@jacobo
I didn't know about that blog, it's an interesting reading. I've read he does some courses as well.
On a side note I love Madrid :) I've been there many times.
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