So, I have had this idea for a while – stupid as it may be – but I’m going to give it ago.
One of the most unique features of the FA cup is the fixtures are not predictable, unlike tennis, the world cup etc. After each round every team that is left goes into a hat, no seeding, and out you come. So, with all that in mind how would laying the favourite go and then lay their opponents.
Chelsea are favourite at 6.20 now. So, take 100 against your 520.
To win the FA Cup from round three, you need to win six games.
So, if you take the stake money (the 100 against your 520) and lay it against the team playing Chelsea each game, if your AVERAGE odds of 1.4 you should get about 100 profit if you add the profit from each bet to the principle bet of 100. Should Chelsea lose you would break even (theoretically). Should there be a draw, then that becomes a bonus game for you.
Now that looks like a bad bet, but should Chelsea draw Man City away next game, an average of 1.40 now looks good.
Once again, stupid or not?
Dumb FA Cup Strategy???
id be interested to see how this plays out.
The dumb strategies are those that involve chasing losers, yours isn't one of those
You would need them to get a couple tough draws, and maybe even a replay, but the only way you will find out for sure is to test it - give it a try Shamrock, what's the worst that can happen?......you certainly won't lose £520, as you will have 6 winning lays to return some of the cash
Are you sticking to £100?
A) Don't forget you only have £95 to play with after commission
B) With each round you successfully lay their opponents, are you using that profit added onto the £95, as some kind of accumulator?
You would need them to get a couple tough draws, and maybe even a replay, but the only way you will find out for sure is to test it - give it a try Shamrock, what's the worst that can happen?......you certainly won't lose £520, as you will have 6 winning lays to return some of the cash
Are you sticking to £100?
A) Don't forget you only have £95 to play with after commission
B) With each round you successfully lay their opponents, are you using that profit added onto the £95, as some kind of accumulator?
All profits are added to the original bet.
Also if the draw a tough one the outright win odds may drift enough to let you lay and walk away with all previous profit.
I'll let you know how much tomorrow, I am waiting on the Australia v Pakistan draw (maybe).
Also if the draw a tough one the outright win odds may drift enough to let you lay and walk away with all previous profit.
I'll let you know how much tomorrow, I am waiting on the Australia v Pakistan draw (maybe).
now thats food for thought! do you know if the betfair historical odds files contain fa cup win data or just match data? be interesting to simulate it for last few years. wonder if that process would work on any team regardless of favourite or not. just finished importing all the horse/greyhound data into my databases now onto football i guess!
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10497
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Can someone help me here, I'm being a bit thick. Where are you going to find 6 opponents for Chelsea who average lay odds of 1.4 ?Shamrock wrote: Chelsea are favourite at 6.20 now. So, take 100 against your 520.
To win the FA Cup from round three, you need to win six games.
So, if you take the stake money (the 100 against your 520) and lay it against the team playing Chelsea each game, if your AVERAGE odds of 1.4 you should get about 100 profit if you add the profit from each bet to the principle bet of 100. Should Chelsea lose you would break even (theoretically). Should there be a draw, then that becomes a bonus game for you.
Now that looks like a bad bet, but should Chelsea draw Man City away next game, an average of 1.40 now looks good.
Once again, stupid or not?
(edit : laying for the tourny and backing at 1.4 avg over 6 rounds might be possible but a draw would screw you...doesn't this technique only work where there's always a winner eg tennis?)