Opportunity in the 3.50 Hereford

[SeaHorseRacing]

Big opportunity in the 3.50 Hereford.

Although my objective is to concentrate on trading I still have interest in form and something last night from one of my softwares alerted a great and rare Opportunity, so I thought Id share it.

There are two horses in the race that pretty much look the only winners.

Lady Karina

Lamanver Odyssey.


Now looking at the horses form its difficuilt to see why Lady Karina is favourite with two mediocre starts.
Looking into detail there is a clear reason for such a short price. Lady Karinas mother Lady Rebecca was a very special mare! She won everything at cheltenham in late 90s. This is clearly why Lady Karina is such a short price.
What is really really important to note is her mother Lady Rebecca only won on a left handed course! A special horse who could only win left handed. Now...
Hereford is a very unique Galloping Right Handed track and there a few courses where form is very similar which include Kempton, Hereford, Huntingdon, Ludlow, Folkstone, Taunton, Wincanton. Lady Rebeca (Dam/mother) generally preferred Good quick ground although could win on anything due to her class.
Lady Karina has already showed some ability however her two only runs have been on right handed tracks one at Hereford (same as today) and the other at Exeter another right handed track.


Lamanver Oddyssey- She has had only 5 runs. Two of which were on similar galloping tracks right handed which she won on both. Her other three runs were 8/3/3 and they were all on left handed tracks. Her mother Lamanver Homerun was a fairly decent horse, however she only seemed to manage to ever win right handed on similar tracks to Hereford... excluding one national hunt flat race on a left hand track. She preferred softer ground.

Lamanver Oddyssey has already beaten Lady Karina last time at a simalr track and everyone thinks (whoever has priced the market) that Lady Karina was clearly better and will win next time. I dissagree, she cant handle the track and I rekon history will repeat itself.


Anyway my point is this.

Lady Karina is currently 2.00 and Lamanver Oddysey is currently 3.00 Whether Lamanver wins I cannot predict the future ( I think 3.0 is a huge price) but I expect a great trading opportunity as I am sure the trainer/owner and connections are aware of this.

If I was to price this race I would be 4/6 Lamanver Oddysey, Lady Karin +3/1


Cheers

[ShaunWhite]

Well done for putting your cards on the table before the race but....If that's what a great and rare opportunity looks like, it proves everything I thought about the value of spending 100s of hours looking at breeeding and who goes left or right etc. But each to their own.

I'm a believer in the far simpler wisdom of crowds (unless it comes to elections obviously ), the efficiency of the market vindicates that belief week in week out. I'll stick to watching order flow.

[ShaunWhite]

Just to clarify, all that wasn't a criticism of you, and i DO appreciate you sharing your thoughts. It's just my personal view.

[SeaHorseRacing]

Just to clarify, all that wasn't a criticism of you, and i DO appreciate you sharing your thoughts. It's just my personal view.

The winner didnt like the track at all was been ridden along 7 out. It only won due to its class and the long run in.

[Crazyskier]

Just to clarify, all that wasn't a criticism of you, and i DO appreciate you sharing your thoughts. It's just my personal view.

The winner didnt like the track at all was been ridden along 7 out. It only won due to its class and the long run in.

Well it was always between the first 3, no doubt at all. My usual penny-pinching and dutching was a reasonable result with no more than £2 liability at any point, as you can see.

[Crazyskier]

And talking of opportunity, Liverpool are waaay overpriced IMO at 2.5 for the Soton game (but don't tell Le Tiss)...

Jurgen Klopp has vowed to go strong with his line up at St Mary's and I believe that's the right decision. This is a cup semi-final and there's enough time between this game and Sunday's trip to Old Trafford without worrying about resting anyone.

In fact considering most of the senior players haven't played since the Sunderland game on January 2 they could do with a match. In goal I'd go with Simon Mignolet. He's the No 1 and should start in a semi-final.

The back four of Nathaniel Clyne, Dejan Lovren, Ragnar Klavan and James Milner picks itself with Joel Matip not yet ready to return. In the continued absence of Jordan Henderson, I'd start Lucas Leiva in the holding midfield role with Emre Can and Gini Wijnaldum ahead of him.

That leaves a front three of Adam Lallana, Daniel Sturridge and Roberto Firmino with Divock Origi missing out.

My team (4-3-3): Mignolet, Clyne, Lovren, Klavan, Milner, Lucas, Can, Wijnaldum, Lallana, Sturridge, Firmino.

At the very least they'll score first and allow a 45 - 60% ROI, mark my words

CS

[SeaHorseRacing]

Another Saints fan here my friend. Born and bred too.

[Crazyskier]

Another Saints fan here my friend. Born and bred too.

Ah, well sadly I can't wish you good luck as my BF balance is hoping to cash in £15 - £20 profit after Liverpool open the scoring...

[napshnap]

SeaHorseRacing
Great analytics , very impressive and interesting. Claimer spoiled that ride in my opinion. Thank you!