I hope you can help me out, I've been fiddling around with an Excel sheet for a while trying to visualize data in a simple way so I can get something useful out of it! I've used Data Queries from soccerstats.com to collect data and manual exports from CGMBet Systems and that works fine for me!
But know I have run into a problem! I'd like to create a goal scoring probability based on SOT's and avg. goal scored/conceded.
I have following data collected :
Home Team
AVG. goal scored.
Avg. SOT pr Goal.
Conversion Rate
AVG. Goal Conceded.
AVG. SOTA pr Conceded.
Conversion Rate
Away Team
Home Team
AVG. goal scored.
Avg. SOT pr Goal.
Conversion Rate
AVG. Goal Conceded.
AVG. SOTA pr Conceded.
Conversion Rate
But I can't seem to wrap my head around how to use those stats to create a formula to calculate a probability for next goal?
I hope someone can help me out a bit and if it is totally mumbo-jumbo please ask questions!
I have attached a screenshot of my sheet just so you can get an idea of what I'm trying to do!
Thanks
