Seasonality, or am I losing the knack?

[andygreen1965]

I have been playing with strategies for some time now on small odds, and to be honest I am getting to my wits end. I'm not exactly losing money but not making it either. Strategies seem to work for a few days then they don't.

I am wondering if seasonality is making this more dispiriting? One of the BA videos is on 'seasonality' and tells me I should lower my expectations in the winter months.

My main strategy had been around choosing the right horses to B2L using Winning Warlock site stats. But my success rates have really fallen away - the horses that are supposed to do well just seem to be running as duds. Seasonality, or luck? I just wonder if, having come into this during the late summer and early autumn, I am now running into a really difficult time of year.

Depending on your advice, I feel I have three options:
1) Give up
2) Wait patiently til the Spring (and see if seasonality is at play, and maybe I will feel fresher)
3) Struggle on as I am - maybe these hard times are a good time to learn.

What do you think?

Andy

[Euler]

The year troughs in mid-February before picking up again. Some of the racing at the moment (from a racing perspective) is very poor. So it's not going to feel the same at this time of the year.

[Dallas]

If your serious about trading then it would be your third option and that will natually lead into your second option. Remember there is more than just horse racing to trade and this monday sees the start of the Aus open
https://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2016/1 ... -the-dogs/

[ShaunWhite]

Strategies seem to work for a few days then they don't.
What do you think?

Andy, I wonder if you're giving your stategies long enough to give you a decent measure of their success?

I don't know if you've seen Peter's video "Is your betting / trading strategy profitable? " https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-i3fSkT9LI

[EyePeaSea]

Andy, I wonder if you're giving your stategies long enough to give you a decent measure of their success?

I don't know if you've seen Peter's video "Is your betting / trading strategy profitable? " https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-i3fSkT9LI

Shaun,

I first saw that video a few months ago, and it certainly makes me think that I abandoned some of my earlier strategies too early. It's an excellent video and very useful.

This time round (starting again after a couple of years away from BA/BF) I didn't start betting until I could see how the system would perform over about 70 days and now that it's been running for nearly 100 days I'm only just starting to get hopeful that the positive results will continue long term. Peter's video definitely helped me to accept early negative variations.

Ian

[Bluesky]

I am wondering if seasonality is making this more dispiriting? One of the BA videos is on 'seasonality' and tells me I should lower my expectations in the winter months.

If you haven't seen it, take a look at what jimibt had to say in this thread regarding seasonality and horse trading, sometimes its helpful to know your not the only person struggling with this.

https://www.betangel.com/forum/viewtopi ... =2&t=12612

[andygreen1965]

Thank you all for your thoughtful and considered replies. They have all really helped.

I have decided to go back to the 'laboratory' - spend more time in practice mode, be more patient, more analytical, and less tinkering. And I will spend time figuring out just how signals work, so that I can make sure I am selecting the best horses under the best conditions.

Cheers

Andy

[EyePeaSea]

Andy, I wonder if you're giving your strategies long enough to give you a decent measure of their success?

I don't know if you've seen Peter's video "Is your betting / trading strategy profitable? " https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-i3fSkT9LI

Andy,

Another helpful thing that I find is to look at averages over longer time frames. Daily views of things like Return on Investment can (well, at least for me) fluctuate. But look at a rolling average over a month and things start to flatten out, making it easier to see the trends (I'm not a big fan of auto-trendlines in Excel).

As an example, here is my ROI % using first a daily average and then a monthly average.

All-Exchanges-Daily-ROI.png

All-Exchanges-Monthly-ROI.png

In the daily chart, there's a 100% loss on the 8th Jan and that's a very disheartening to see that dip. But on the monthly rolling average, that dip gets flattened to a 0.5% drop. A loss is still a loss, but not such a big deal if you look at the bigger picture.

Ian

[Zodiac108]

When I looked again at my statistics after last nights racing they are not what I should be seeing (I have been comparing with data gathered over an entire year).

Glad to see external confirmation that it really is a Christmas/NY thing.