Posted on: November 10th, 2015
http://www.socdoc.co.uk/premier-league- ... relegated/
Crystal Palace fans should be concerned for the future because they are bottom of the shots conceded table and this is an indication that they will struggle in future seasons to maintain their Premier League status.
Premier League 2016-2017 Relegation Prediction Via the Shot Conceding Metric
Posted Dec 5th 2016
In the table below I have added the teams that were in the bottom 3 re the conceding shot metric in the Premier League ( bottom 4 2014-2015) to show that there is some correlation between conceding shots and being relegated which appears to be a logical conclusion.
What is of further interest is that teams that have been in the bottom 3 in a season with regard to shots conceded and have not gone down have found that they have in general been relegated in subsequent seasons.
Sundererland and Crystal Palace in the table below are the only 2 teams to have not been relegated in that time period .
In terms of the bottom three this season re shots conceded <> Burnley , Sunderland and Hull
To be relegated
Hull 4/11, Burnley 8/11, Sunderland 5/6 , Swansea 10/11 , Boro 4/1, West Ham 6/1 , Palace 7/1
Summary
Crystal Palace at 7/1 fit the profile of a relegated team in terms of the shot conceding metric with Hull, and Burnley likely to join them .
2008-2009 Position
Bolton 13th
West Ham 9th
Boro Relegated
2009-2010 Position
Hull Relegated
Burnley Relegated
Birmingham 9th
2010-2011 Position
Blackpool Relegated
West Ham Relegated
Birmingham Relegated
2011-2012 Position
Wolves Relegated
Bolton Relegated
Blackburn Relegated
2012-2013 Position
Sunderland 17th
Fulham 12th
Reading Relegated
2013-2014 Position
Fulham Relegated
West Ham 13th
Cardiff Relegated
2014-2015 Position
West Ham 12th
Burnley Relegated
QPR Relegated
Sunderland 16th
2015-2016
Newcastle Relegated
Palace 15th
Sunderland 17th
Premier League relegation data via Shot conceding data
Posted on: March 14th, 2013 
In this article I want to look at the relegation battle just from a prospective of shots as it is becoming a trend that the three teams that go down could be the three teams to concede the most shots so as the relegation battle is so tight, this may have a good indicator from this simple variable on who is value to go down.
We clearly see that since 2008-2009 the three teams to go down have either conceded the most shots and been relegated that season or have been relegated in subsequent seasons.
This appears to be very logical if we for one moment remove any academic argument about shots on target being of more interest then shots in the derimination of the outcome of a game.
People are discussing Newcastle at the moment and arguing that Pardew must be a good Manager as Newcastle came 5th last season and the position is irelevant but the data is not.
Newcastle and West Ham are statistically YO YO clubs and will over achieve and then revert back to their norm which in the case of both teams over the last few years has been relegation and a return to the EPL. Although West Ham currently sit 12th this season I would think they will struggle next season as should Sunderland and Fulham.
This is a really simple idea which is conceding more shots then other teams will lead to relegation in the same season or future seasons.
In this article there is no need to get worked up about Shot on Target data being of more value.
Remember this article next season and see if West Ham and Fulham and Sunderland do struggle next season.
In conclusion using the above data then Reading will not avoid the drop and QPR and Aston Villa should join them .
Aston Villa have an excellent youth academy and I think Lambert is an excellent manager so if they do go down then their future is very bright.
http://www.socdoc.co.uk/the-epl-relegat ... shot-data/
I predicted that Fulham would go down the season they went down on my blog at 13/2 <> I predicted at the start of the season that Palace would go down ( 13/2 )
In basic terms if you look at the PL in terms of relegation and want value > look for teams in previous seasons that were mid table that conceded a higher amount of shots then the average for the league > in effect this means their accuracy prevention = stopping shots tuning into shots on target will be higher then the average with expectation of regression to mean = they will drop down the table over the next few seasons
In this article I want to look at the relegation battle just from a prospective of shots as it is becoming a trend that the three teams that go down could be the three teams to concede the most shots so as the relegation battle is so tight, this may have a good indicator from this simple variable on who is value to go down.
We clearly see that since 2008-2009 the three teams to go down have either conceded the most shots and been relegated that season or have been relegated in subsequent seasons.
This appears to be very logical if we for one moment remove any academic argument about shots on target being of more interest then shots in the derimination of the outcome of a game.
People are discussing Newcastle at the moment and arguing that Pardew must be a good Manager as Newcastle came 5th last season and the position is irelevant but the data is not.
Newcastle and West Ham are statistically YO YO clubs and will over achieve and then revert back to their norm which in the case of both teams over the last few years has been relegation and a return to the EPL. Although West Ham currently sit 12th this season I would think they will struggle next season as should Sunderland and Fulham.
This is a really simple idea which is conceding more shots then other teams will lead to relegation in the same season or future seasons.
In this article there is no need to get worked up about Shot on Target data being of more value.
Remember this article next season and see if West Ham and Fulham and Sunderland do struggle next season.
In conclusion using the above data then Reading will not avoid the drop and QPR and Aston Villa should join them .
Aston Villa have an excellent youth academy and I think Lambert is an excellent manager so if they do go down then their future is very bright.
http://www.socdoc.co.uk/the-epl-relegat ... shot-data/
I predicted that Fulham would go down the season they went down on my blog at 13/2 <> I predicted at the start of the season that Palace would go down ( 13/2 )
In basic terms if you look at the PL in terms of relegation and want value > look for teams in previous seasons that were mid table that conceded a higher amount of shots then the average for the league > in effect this means their accuracy prevention = stopping shots tuning into shots on target will be higher then the average with expectation of regression to mean = they will drop down the table over the next few seasons
Hmmm......I think there was plenty of other signs and signals indicating that Crystal Palace were going to be in a relegation battle this season ... before the season even started !! ... not least a poll of Palace season ticket holders in which the majority verdict was . " Relegation beckons " for the 2016/17
The end to the 2015/16 season resulted in a league sequence from Boxing Day read two victories in 21 matches, a prolonged stretch of dismal form the club had not endured since groping blindly through nine months without a home win to finish bottom in 1998.
Sometimes you can overdo the stats and just use a bit of common sense
The end to the 2015/16 season resulted in a league sequence from Boxing Day read two victories in 21 matches, a prolonged stretch of dismal form the club had not endured since groping blindly through nine months without a home win to finish bottom in 1998.
Sometimes you can overdo the stats and just use a bit of common sense
Cassini wrote:so why were Palace offered at 7/1 to be relegated on Dec 1st 2016
over do the stats ?
is that not what the betting industry does ????
I suspect the answer is that they to overdid the stats!! As they did in the case of the mighty Burnley,.
As a wise man once said about using football stats . "relying on data alone is the classical statistical approach to this kind of prediction. And classical statistics is great at 'predicting the past'. The problem is that we actually want to predict the future not the past!
As in the recent matches between .. Liverpool v Swansea ... and Arsenal. V Watford ... and matches every day of the week . More so now that teams are prioritising competitions which make a lot of historic data obsolete !!
Arsenal since 2003-2004 in the Premier League at home have conceded the opening goal in the 0-20 minutes time band in 24 games and only lost 4/24 (17%) and in general we can see that when Arsenal concede the early goal metric at home ( opening goal 0-20 minutes ) that there will be expectation that Arsenal will “fightback’ and we see that Arsenal scored in 100% of the games.
Arsenal scored the 2nd goal of the game in 18/24 ( 75% ) and when they scored the 2nd goal of the game only Chelsea won.
Watford scored the second goal of the game and were offered at 11/10 to win and you should have looked at a sample of games where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes in the Premier League > 0-2 pathway because the home team fighting back is not common and last season in that profile in the PL 28/63 games that produced the opening goal by the away team in the 0-20 minutes tome band > 0-2 <> 1-3-24 away teams won 86% and we can see that Watford at 0-2 should have been offered at a shorter price because at 2-0 lead is not ” precarious ”
T HT FT Goal 80 +
Arsenal Watford 10 0 2 1 2
Arsenal Southampton 18 1 1 2 1 90
Arsenal Man City 18 0 1 1 1
Arsenal Swansea 11 0 1 2 2 90
Arsenal Liverpool 5 0 1 2 2
Arsenal West Ham 18 1 1 5 1
Arsenal Spurs 10 3 1 5 2 90
Arsenal Chelsea 20 1 1 1 2
Arsenal Wigan 7 1 2 1 2
Arsenal Newcastle 14 1 1 2 1 90
Arsenal Spurs 4 2 2 5 2
Arsenal Villa 11 0 2 1 2 90
Arsenal Bolton 7 1 2 4 2 85
Arsenal Everton 12 1 1 2 2 81 90
Arsenal Blackburn 4 3 2 6 2 89
Arsenal Spurs 13 1 1 4 4 89 90
Arsenal Everton 9 0 1 3 1 90
Arsenal Fulham 1 0 1 2 1 83 90
Arsenal Bolton 10 1 1 2 1
Arsenal Blackburn 3 3 1 6 2 85 88 90
Arsenal Bolton 12 0 1 1 1 90
Arsenal Villa 3 2 1 3 1
Arsenal Liverpool 5 1 2 4 2
Arsenal Spurs 5 0 1 2 1
In the table below I have added the last 30 games in the Premier League where the away team opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-20 minutes time band and 0-2 half time game state ;
2-1-27 <> away teams won 90% 1/0.90 = 1.11 ( at HT watford were offered at 1.63)
The home teams in the second half failed to score in the second half in 50%
The away teams failed to score in the second half in 47% and scored over 3.5 goals in only 17% , 1/0.17 = 5/1
T HT FT
Bourne Liverpool 20 0 2 4 3
WBA Man City 19 0 2 0 4
Chelsea Liverpool 17 0 2 1 2
Sunderland Boro 13 0 2 1 2
Southampton Liverpool 17 0 2 3 2
Everton Arsenal 7 0 2 0 2
Stoke South 11 0 2 1 2
Villa Everton 5 0 2 1 3
Norwich Chelsea 1 0 2 1 2
Villa Liverpool 16 0 2 0 6
Norwich Spurs 2 0 2 0 3
Villa Arsenal 8 0 2 0 2
Swansea Leicester 5 0 2 0 3
Everton Man UTD 18 0 2 0 3
Newcastle Watford 10 0 2 1 2
Liverpool West Ham 3 0 2 0 3
WHU Bourne 11 0 2 3 4
WBA City 9 0 2 0 3
Palace Arsenal 8 0 2 1 2
Sunderland QPR 17 0 2 0 2
WBA Spurs 6 0 2 0 3
Spurs Stoke 6 0 2 1 2
WBA Palace 16 0 2 2 2
Sunderland Swansea 7 0 2 1 3
Palace Man City 4 0 2 0 2
Norwich Liverpool 4 0 2 2 3
WHU Man UTD 8 0 2 0 2
Hull Newcastle 10 0 2 1 4
Cardiff Hull 18 0 2 0 4
Newcastle Sunderland 19 0 2 0 3
Arsenal scored the 2nd goal of the game in 18/24 ( 75% ) and when they scored the 2nd goal of the game only Chelsea won.
Watford scored the second goal of the game and were offered at 11/10 to win and you should have looked at a sample of games where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes in the Premier League > 0-2 pathway because the home team fighting back is not common and last season in that profile in the PL 28/63 games that produced the opening goal by the away team in the 0-20 minutes tome band > 0-2 <> 1-3-24 away teams won 86% and we can see that Watford at 0-2 should have been offered at a shorter price because at 2-0 lead is not ” precarious ”
T HT FT Goal 80 +
Arsenal Watford 10 0 2 1 2
Arsenal Southampton 18 1 1 2 1 90
Arsenal Man City 18 0 1 1 1
Arsenal Swansea 11 0 1 2 2 90
Arsenal Liverpool 5 0 1 2 2
Arsenal West Ham 18 1 1 5 1
Arsenal Spurs 10 3 1 5 2 90
Arsenal Chelsea 20 1 1 1 2
Arsenal Wigan 7 1 2 1 2
Arsenal Newcastle 14 1 1 2 1 90
Arsenal Spurs 4 2 2 5 2
Arsenal Villa 11 0 2 1 2 90
Arsenal Bolton 7 1 2 4 2 85
Arsenal Everton 12 1 1 2 2 81 90
Arsenal Blackburn 4 3 2 6 2 89
Arsenal Spurs 13 1 1 4 4 89 90
Arsenal Everton 9 0 1 3 1 90
Arsenal Fulham 1 0 1 2 1 83 90
Arsenal Bolton 10 1 1 2 1
Arsenal Blackburn 3 3 1 6 2 85 88 90
Arsenal Bolton 12 0 1 1 1 90
Arsenal Villa 3 2 1 3 1
Arsenal Liverpool 5 1 2 4 2
Arsenal Spurs 5 0 1 2 1
In the table below I have added the last 30 games in the Premier League where the away team opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-20 minutes time band and 0-2 half time game state ;
2-1-27 <> away teams won 90% 1/0.90 = 1.11 ( at HT watford were offered at 1.63)
The home teams in the second half failed to score in the second half in 50%
The away teams failed to score in the second half in 47% and scored over 3.5 goals in only 17% , 1/0.17 = 5/1
T HT FT
Bourne Liverpool 20 0 2 4 3
WBA Man City 19 0 2 0 4
Chelsea Liverpool 17 0 2 1 2
Sunderland Boro 13 0 2 1 2
Southampton Liverpool 17 0 2 3 2
Everton Arsenal 7 0 2 0 2
Stoke South 11 0 2 1 2
Villa Everton 5 0 2 1 3
Norwich Chelsea 1 0 2 1 2
Villa Liverpool 16 0 2 0 6
Norwich Spurs 2 0 2 0 3
Villa Arsenal 8 0 2 0 2
Swansea Leicester 5 0 2 0 3
Everton Man UTD 18 0 2 0 3
Newcastle Watford 10 0 2 1 2
Liverpool West Ham 3 0 2 0 3
WHU Bourne 11 0 2 3 4
WBA City 9 0 2 0 3
Palace Arsenal 8 0 2 1 2
Sunderland QPR 17 0 2 0 2
WBA Spurs 6 0 2 0 3
Spurs Stoke 6 0 2 1 2
WBA Palace 16 0 2 2 2
Sunderland Swansea 7 0 2 1 3
Palace Man City 4 0 2 0 2
Norwich Liverpool 4 0 2 2 3
WHU Man UTD 8 0 2 0 2
Hull Newcastle 10 0 2 1 4
Cardiff Hull 18 0 2 0 4
Newcastle Sunderland 19 0 2 0 3
