The Effect of the Early Away Goal in the Championship and 1-1 Half Time Game State Via ” Game Pathway” analysis
In the table below I have added the last 59 games in the Championship where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes and the half time game state was 1-1 , 69% ended over 2.5 goals and 36% ended over 3.5 goals .
17-20-22
Game Pathway
18/59 FT 1-1
20/59 > 2-1 <> 17-2-1 <> home teams won 85% = 1.18 < at 2-1 Barnsley ( home to Leeds ) were offered at 1.5
21/59 1-2 <> 0-0-21 <> away teams won 100%
> 2-2 pathway <> 7/59
Summary
The opening goal by the away team in the Championship and 1-1 half time game state and in general there will not be any home bias with the pathway > 2-2 not a common event and as a result > 1-2 / 2-1 and that will in general be a signal in this profile in the Championship that the team conceding the 3rd goal are unlikely to fightback.
T HT T+2 T+3 FT
Barnsley Leeds 18 1 1 H48 H54 3 2
Derby Reading 16 1 1 H63 H74 3 2
Blackburn Birmingham 3 1 1 1 1
Wigan Ipswich 7 1 1 H62 A68 2 3
Fulham Rotherham 19 1 1 H54 2 1
Blackburn Hudd 6 1 1 1 1
Brighton Villa 20 1 1 1 1
Wed Wigan 5 1 1 H62 2 1
Leeds Birmingham 15 1 1 A55 1 2
MK Dons Forest 8 1 1 A74 1 2
Cardiff Birmingham 11 1 1 1 1
QPR Boro 18 1 1 A51 A57 2 3
Brentford Charlton 1 1 1 A69 1 2
Leeds Fulham 17 1 1 1 1
Boro Cardiff 20 1 1 H63 H83 3 1
Hudd Fulham 2 1 1 1 1
ipswich Preston 7 1 1 1 1
Cardiff Forest 9 1 1 1 1
Leeds Derby 13 1 1 H71 A78 2 2
Fulham Ipswich 1 1 1 A57 1 2
Fulham Brentford 18 1 1 H64 A71 2 2
Bolton Cardiff 13 1 1 A53 H71 2 3
Burnley Brighton 1 1 1 1 1
Hudd Derby 15 1 1 A48 1 2
Birmingham QPR 17 1 1 H63 2 1
Leeds Brighton 14 1 1 A89 1 2
Brighton Cardiff 5 1 1 1 1
Huddersfield Bolton 3 1 1 H51 H74 4 1
Ipswich Sheff Wed 19 1 1 H53 2 1
Forest Rotherham 13 1 1 H61 2 1
Bolton Norwich 9 1 1 A90 1 2
Leeds Cardiff 14 1 1 A62 1 2
Charlton Fulham 8 1 1 1 1
Bolton Norwich 9 1 1 A90 1 2
Millwall Huddersfield 17 1 1 A74 A86 1 3
Wolves Reading 1 1 1 A70 1 2
Huddersfield Leeds 7 1 1 A90 1 2
Huddersfield Bolton 1 1 1 H85 2 1
Blackburn Sheff Wed 3 1 1 A90 1 2
Norwich Blackburn 1 1 1 H86 H90 3 1
Blackburn Cardiff 18 1 1 1 1
Derby Watford 5 1 1 H60 A70 4 2
Derby Huddersfield 14 1 1 H50 H57 3 1
Reading Huddersfield 4 1 1 1 1
Reading Barnsley 16 1 1 A53 A57 1 3
Blackburn Leicester 20 1 1 1 1
Huddersfield Blackburn 4 1 1 A55 A65 2 4
QPR Leeds 14 1 1 1 1
QPR Reading 10 1 1 A56 A58 1 3
Bolton Charlton 11 1 1 1 1
Barnsley Yeovil 10 1 1 1 1
Charlton Leeds 17 1 1 A48 H70 2 4
Huddersfield Birmingham 11 1 1 A66 A81 1 3
Huddersfield Leeds 2 1 1 H63 A73 3 2
Sheff Wed Ipswich 12 1 1 1 1
Millwall Blackpool 15 1 1 H73 H74 3 1
Ipswich Boro 12 1 1 H56 H90 3 1
Bournemouth Blackpool 7 1 1 A47 1 2
Leeds Brighton 13 1 1 H90 2 1
Early away goal and 1-1 HT Championship data
In the table below I have added the last 50 games in La Liga where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes and 1-1 half time , 88% goal ended over 2.5 goals and 44% ended over 3.5 goals .
29-11-10 home teams won 58%
GAME PATHWAY
6/50 1-1 FT
> 2-1 29/50 27 Roll Eyes -2-0 <> home teams won 93%
> 1-2 15/50 2-3-10 <> away teams won 67%
3/50 ended 2-2
T HT T+2 T+3 FT
Bilbao Atl Madrid A3 1 1 H56 A80 2 2
Betis Celta A15 1 1 H53 A61 3 3
Gijon Sociedad A19 1 1 A51 A56 1 3
Malaga Gijon A13 1 1 A49 H65 3 2
Gijon Seville A4 1 1 1 1
Gijon Valencia A7 1 1 A65 1 2
Real Madrid Eibar A6 1 1 1 1
Granada Bilbao A15 1 1 A77 1 2
Levante Atl Madrid A2 1 1 H90 2 1
Bilbao Celta A13 1 1 H72 2 1
Gijon Sevilla A8 1 1 H90 2 1
Eibar Sociedad A7 1 1 H58 2 1
Levante Espanyol A7 1 1 H66 2 1
Malaga Espanyol A11 1 1 1 1
Barca Sevilla A20 1 1 H48 2 1
Las Celta A5 1 1 H90 2 1
Malaga Barca A2 1 1 A51 1 2
Valencia Real Madrid A16 1 1 A82 H83 2 2
Sociedad Eibar A4 1 1 H90 2 1
Barcelona Eibar A10 1 1 H48 H85 3 1
Bilbao Valencia A20 1 1 H60 H69 3 1
Getafe Granada A14 1 1 A59 1 2
Sociedad Cordoba A12 1 1 H75 H90 3 1
Rayo Deportivo A10 1 1 A72 1 2
Getafe Celta Vigo A15 1 1 H85 2 1
Rayo Espanyol A9 1 1 A76 A90 1 3
Barcelona Espanyol A13 1 1 H50 H53 5 1
Sociedad Atl Madrid A10 1 1 H82 2 1
Eibar Granada A8 1 1 1 1
Real Madrid Barcelona A3 1 1 H50 H61 3 1
Almeria Eiche A16 1 1 A56 H84 2 2
Sociedad Valencia A15 1 1 1 1
Rayo Bilbao A20 1 1 H39 H89 2 1
Real Madrid Atl Madrid A10 1 1 A76 1 2
Valencia Celta Vigo A5 1 1 H55 2 1
Betis Valladolid A1 1 1 A51 H54 4 3
Almeria Celta Vigo A20 1 1 A52 A71 2 4
Levante Real Betis A13 1 1 A70 A77 1 3
Sevilla Real Madrid A14 1 1 H72 2 1
Celta Osasuna A17 1 1 1 1
Ath Madrid Levante A1 1 1 H47 A56 3 2
Celta Almeria A9 1 1 H49 H59 3 1
Valencia Valladolid A9 1 1 A50 H76 2 2
Barcelona Valladolid A10 1 1 H52 H64 4 1
Ath Bilbao Celta A14 1 1 H61 H68 3 2
Getafe Osasuna A11 1 1 H52 2 1
Villarreal Valladolid A4 1 1 H83 2 1
Espanol Valencia A10 1 1 H47 H88 3 1
Real Madrid Betis A14 1 1 H86 2 1
Zaragoza Mallorca A12 1 1 H60 A83 3 2
29-11-10 home teams won 58%
GAME PATHWAY
6/50 1-1 FT
> 2-1 29/50 27 Roll Eyes -2-0 <> home teams won 93%
> 1-2 15/50 2-3-10 <> away teams won 67%
3/50 ended 2-2
T HT T+2 T+3 FT
Bilbao Atl Madrid A3 1 1 H56 A80 2 2
Betis Celta A15 1 1 H53 A61 3 3
Gijon Sociedad A19 1 1 A51 A56 1 3
Malaga Gijon A13 1 1 A49 H65 3 2
Gijon Seville A4 1 1 1 1
Gijon Valencia A7 1 1 A65 1 2
Real Madrid Eibar A6 1 1 1 1
Granada Bilbao A15 1 1 A77 1 2
Levante Atl Madrid A2 1 1 H90 2 1
Bilbao Celta A13 1 1 H72 2 1
Gijon Sevilla A8 1 1 H90 2 1
Eibar Sociedad A7 1 1 H58 2 1
Levante Espanyol A7 1 1 H66 2 1
Malaga Espanyol A11 1 1 1 1
Barca Sevilla A20 1 1 H48 2 1
Las Celta A5 1 1 H90 2 1
Malaga Barca A2 1 1 A51 1 2
Valencia Real Madrid A16 1 1 A82 H83 2 2
Sociedad Eibar A4 1 1 H90 2 1
Barcelona Eibar A10 1 1 H48 H85 3 1
Bilbao Valencia A20 1 1 H60 H69 3 1
Getafe Granada A14 1 1 A59 1 2
Sociedad Cordoba A12 1 1 H75 H90 3 1
Rayo Deportivo A10 1 1 A72 1 2
Getafe Celta Vigo A15 1 1 H85 2 1
Rayo Espanyol A9 1 1 A76 A90 1 3
Barcelona Espanyol A13 1 1 H50 H53 5 1
Sociedad Atl Madrid A10 1 1 H82 2 1
Eibar Granada A8 1 1 1 1
Real Madrid Barcelona A3 1 1 H50 H61 3 1
Almeria Eiche A16 1 1 A56 H84 2 2
Sociedad Valencia A15 1 1 1 1
Rayo Bilbao A20 1 1 H39 H89 2 1
Real Madrid Atl Madrid A10 1 1 A76 1 2
Valencia Celta Vigo A5 1 1 H55 2 1
Betis Valladolid A1 1 1 A51 H54 4 3
Almeria Celta Vigo A20 1 1 A52 A71 2 4
Levante Real Betis A13 1 1 A70 A77 1 3
Sevilla Real Madrid A14 1 1 H72 2 1
Celta Osasuna A17 1 1 1 1
Ath Madrid Levante A1 1 1 H47 A56 3 2
Celta Almeria A9 1 1 H49 H59 3 1
Valencia Valladolid A9 1 1 A50 H76 2 2
Barcelona Valladolid A10 1 1 H52 H64 4 1
Ath Bilbao Celta A14 1 1 H61 H68 3 2
Getafe Osasuna A11 1 1 H52 2 1
Villarreal Valladolid A4 1 1 H83 2 1
Espanol Valencia A10 1 1 H47 H88 3 1
Real Madrid Betis A14 1 1 H86 2 1
Zaragoza Mallorca A12 1 1 H60 A83 3 2
In the table below I have added the last 35 games in National North where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band and the half time game state was 1-1 , 86% ended over 2.5 goals and 57% ended over 3.5 goals
Game Pathway
5/35 1-1 FT
18/35 > 2-1 <> 14-4-0 <> home teams won 78%
12/35 > 1-2 <> 1-3-8 <> away teams won 67%
15-12-8 <> home teams won 43% < at 1-1 HT Brackley ( V Altrincham ) were offered at 8/13 ( 1/0.43 = 13/10 )
T HT T+2 FT
Brackley Altrincham 6 1 1 1 1
United Harrogate 3 1 1 A47 2 2
Telford Curzon 12 1 1 H58 3 1
Bradford Brackley 2 1 1 H90 2 1
Kiddy Darlington 7 1 1 H77 2 1
Nuneaton Alfreton 13 1 1 H63 4 1
Stalybridge Boston 5 1 1 H49 3 3
Curzon Chorley 9 1 1 1 1
Stockport Salford 7 1 1 H66 2 1
1883 Stockport 20 1 1 H65 2 1
Harrogate UTD 16 1 1 H58 3 1
Stalybridge Gain 14 1 1 H60 3 2
Gain Brackley 14 1 1 1 1
Harrogate Altrincham 10 1 1 H56 2 2
Nuneaton Halifax 2 1 1 A53 2 3
Boston Nuneaton 19 1 1 H49 2 1
Lowestoft Worcester 3 1 1 H80 2 1
Corby United 8 1 1 A49 2 3
Bradford United 5 1 1 H67 3 1
Boston Hednesford 11 1 1 H84 3 1
Gain Telford 4 1 1 1 1
Boston Lowestoft 7 1 1 H57 4 1
Stockport Harrogate 3 1 1 A74 1 2
Fylde Solihull 14 1 1 A50 1 2
United Gloucester 19 1 1 A69 1 2
Stalybridge Hednesford 20 1 1 H49 4 2
Boston Harrogate 10 1 1 A57 3 3
Lowestoft Solihull 11 1 1 A47 2 2
Ferriby Boston 13 1 1 A54 4 3
Lowestoft Harrogate 16 1 1 A84 1 2
Alfreton Stalybridge 10 1 1 A70 1 3
Harrogate Ferriby 2 1 1 H51 3 3
Stalybridge Solihull 16 1 1 A72 1 3
United Tamworth 5 1 1 1 1
Curzon Corby 1 1 1 H49 2 2
Game Pathway
5/35 1-1 FT
18/35 > 2-1 <> 14-4-0 <> home teams won 78%
12/35 > 1-2 <> 1-3-8 <> away teams won 67%
15-12-8 <> home teams won 43% < at 1-1 HT Brackley ( V Altrincham ) were offered at 8/13 ( 1/0.43 = 13/10 )
T HT T+2 FT
Brackley Altrincham 6 1 1 1 1
United Harrogate 3 1 1 A47 2 2
Telford Curzon 12 1 1 H58 3 1
Bradford Brackley 2 1 1 H90 2 1
Kiddy Darlington 7 1 1 H77 2 1
Nuneaton Alfreton 13 1 1 H63 4 1
Stalybridge Boston 5 1 1 H49 3 3
Curzon Chorley 9 1 1 1 1
Stockport Salford 7 1 1 H66 2 1
1883 Stockport 20 1 1 H65 2 1
Harrogate UTD 16 1 1 H58 3 1
Stalybridge Gain 14 1 1 H60 3 2
Gain Brackley 14 1 1 1 1
Harrogate Altrincham 10 1 1 H56 2 2
Nuneaton Halifax 2 1 1 A53 2 3
Boston Nuneaton 19 1 1 H49 2 1
Lowestoft Worcester 3 1 1 H80 2 1
Corby United 8 1 1 A49 2 3
Bradford United 5 1 1 H67 3 1
Boston Hednesford 11 1 1 H84 3 1
Gain Telford 4 1 1 1 1
Boston Lowestoft 7 1 1 H57 4 1
Stockport Harrogate 3 1 1 A74 1 2
Fylde Solihull 14 1 1 A50 1 2
United Gloucester 19 1 1 A69 1 2
Stalybridge Hednesford 20 1 1 H49 4 2
Boston Harrogate 10 1 1 A57 3 3
Lowestoft Solihull 11 1 1 A47 2 2
Ferriby Boston 13 1 1 A54 4 3
Lowestoft Harrogate 16 1 1 A84 1 2
Alfreton Stalybridge 10 1 1 A70 1 3
Harrogate Ferriby 2 1 1 H51 3 3
Stalybridge Solihull 16 1 1 A72 1 3
United Tamworth 5 1 1 1 1
Curzon Corby 1 1 1 H49 2 2