In the table below I have added the last 64 games in Serie B where the home teams were winning 1-0 at half time with the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band ;
52-9-3 home teams won 81%
Game Pathway
18/64 1-0 FT
> 2-0 30/64 29-1-0
> 1-1 16/64 5-8-3
“In this masterwork Pullein explains how you can work out what is likely to happen …. Kevin Pullein is the leading football commentator for the Racing Post. … for instance, a team which is losing by 0-1 is 6% more likely to score the next goal …” < well not in this profile of game.
The 1-1 pathway in the table below with the second goal in the 46-70 minutes time band was seen in 13/64 ( 20% ) with 3/64 ending 1-1.
Trading Strategy
In Serie B in games where the home teams open the scoring 0-10 minutes and the half time score is 1-0 ; back against ( lay ) the 1-1 correct score and if still 1-0 on 69 minutes then scratch the trade by backing 1-1.
1-0 half time to the home team in Serie B added to the early goal metric and 1-1 with a goal in 46-70 minutes time band will not be a common event and if this does happen then 1-1 full time will be an unlikely outcome.
If you followed the above strategy in the last 64 games below then you would have lost 3/64 trades ( 5%) which is not too shabby
T HT T+1 FT
Perugia Cesena 10 1 0 A47 3 3
Latina Hellas 10 1 0 H90 2 0
Cittadella Bari 9 1 0 H78 2 0
Avellino Ben 7 1 0 A82 1 1
Cittadella Latina 4 1 0 H74 2 1
Bari Trapani 9 1 0 H64 3 0
Latina Pisa 8 1 0 A62 1 1
Spal Carpi 8 1 0 H50 3 1
Carpi Latina 5 1 0 H52 2 0
Novara Sal 7 1 0 1 0
Ternana Pisa 6 1 0 1 0
Brescia Fros 9 1 0 H63 2 0
Novara Medina 4 1 0 H64 4 0
Sal Como 5 1 0 1 0
Cesena Novara 5 1 0 1 0
Spezia Novara 8 1 0 1 0
Entella Ternana 8 1 0 H53 2 2
Cesena Latina 5 1 0 H70 3 0
Spezia Trapani 5 1 0 A52 1 2
Novara Bari 4 1 0 A57 1 2
Entella Spezia 6 1 0 A51 2 2
Perugia Latina 2 1 0 H62 2 0
Entella Perugia 7 1 0 A87 2 1
Spezia Lanciano 7 1 0 H86 2 0
Avellino Entella 4 1 0 H86 2 0
Cesena Ternana 8 1 0 H76 4 0
Perugia Modena 8 1 0 1 0
Trapani Modena 7 1 0 A64 2 1
Novara Brescia 4 1 0 H52 4 0
Bari Sal. 7 1 0 A70 2 1
Entella Sal. 9 1 0 1 0
Brescia Vercelli 2 1 0 H60 2 0
Latina Ascoli 4 1 0 1 0
Ascoli Entella 4 1 0 1 0
Trapani Pro Vercelli 4 1 0 H49 2 1
Entella Latina 6 1 0 H74 2 0
Perugia Trapani 4 1 0 1 0
Trapani Virtus 3 1 0 1 0
Frosinone Carpi 10 1 0 1 0
Trapani Frosinone 7 1 0 A56 3 1
Crotone Spezia 8 1 0 H56 2 0
Avellino Frosinone 5 1 0 H51 3 0
Brescia Frosinone 7 1 0 H53 3 1
Ternana Crotone 5 1 0 H52 2 1
Cittadella Catania 3 1 0 H54 3 2
Prescara Varese 4 1 0 H51 2 0
Varesse Crotone 4 1 0 1 0
Catania Latina 10 1 0 1 0
Cittadella Latina 6 1 0 A67 1 1
Carpi Pro 8 1 0 1 0
Bologna Cittadella 2 1 0 1 0
Trapani Vicenza 4 1 0 A60 2 1
Spezia Bari 9 1 0 H90 2 0
Bari Juve 9 1 0 H70 3 0
Avellino Crotone 9 1 0 H90 2 0
Carpi Modena 7 1 0 A55 2 2
Crotone Cittadella 2 1 0 H80 2 0
Trapani Modena 10 1 0 H69 2 0
Reggina Avellino 2 1 0 A57 1 1
Trapani Crotone 7 1 0 1 0
Carpi Varese 4 1 0 1 0
Juve Bari 2 1 0 A72 1 1
Reggina Spezia 1 1 0 A49 1 2
Empoli Lanciano 10 1 0 H63 3 0
trading correct scores in play via game state analysis
at 1-1 HT > Wolfsburg were offered at 6/5 ( 2.4 on the exchange ) and 2-1 FT to Wolfsburg was offered at 4.3-4.6
n the table below I have added all the games in Bundesliga since 2010-2012 where the home team opened the scoring 0-10 and 1-1 half time and I have added the shot on target data from the 2012-2013 season
11-19-13 <> the home teams won 26% , 1/0.26 = 3.85
TRADING STRATEGY
Back against the home team in the Bundesliga ( lay ) at half time in games where the home team open the scoring 0-10 minutes and 1-1 half time and hedge with a cover of the correct score 2-1 to the home team .
If you followed the above strategy in the table below then you would have won 39/43 TRADES = 91%
Summary
In Bundesliga in games where the home team open the scoring 0-10 minutes and 1-1 half time , there will be expectation that although it is likely that the home shot on target average will be higher then the away team in the second half , it is likely that the away team will be more accurate in the second half.
First Half SOT 2nd half SOT T FT
2016/2017
Leipzig Schalke 3 3 2 2 H2 2 1
2015/2016
Hertha Bremen 1 1 1 2 H6 1 1
Hoffenheim Bayern M. 1 4 0 5 H1 1 2
Köln Ingolstadt 3 4 1 1 H10 1 1
Hertha Leverkusen 2 2 2 0 H7 2 1
Hannover Darmsatdt 3 2 2 3 H10 1 2
Schalke Bremen 2 1 2 5 H4 1 3
Ingolstadt Stuttgart 4 3 4 3 H4 3 3
Hertha Hannover 2 2 6 1 H4 2 2
Stuttgart Mainz 2 3 1 7 H6 1 3
2014/2015
Mainz Bremen 2 4 1 3 H3 1 2
Monch Hertha 4 1 6 2 H9 3 2
Dortmund Wolfsburg 2 2 4 2 H8 2 2
Wolfsburg Hertha 1 2 4 0 H10 2 1
Augsburg Stuttgart 2 5 2 2 H7 2 1
Schalke Stuttgart 2 2 4 5 H9 3 2
Wolfsburg Dortmund 4 3 4 1 H1 2 1
Paderborn Stuttgart 2 2 3 1 H4 1 2
2013/2014
Freiburg Hertha 1 2 1 2 H6 1 1
Stuttgart Bremen 3 2 3 0 H5 1 1
Stuttgart Nunrberg 2 3 2 3 H3 1 1
Hertha Nurnberg 4 1 0 3 H4 1 3
Broussia M. Augsburg 4 3 4 1 H5 1 2
Augsburg Schalke 2 3 1 1 H5 1 2
Mainz Hamburg 1 4 5 3 H8 3 2
2012/2013
Hoffenheim Greuter F. 2 4 9 4 H8 3 3
Greuther F. Bremen 2 5 1 3 H8 1 1
Fortuna D Hoffenheim 1 1 2 1 H4 1 1
Broussia M. Stuttgart 5 2 0 4 H7 1 2
Augsburg Freiburg 1 2 3 1 H9 1 1
Mainz Hannover 2 2 1 2 H10 2 1
Mainz Wolfsburg 1 2 1 1 H5 1 1
Fortuna D Mainz 2 2 1 1 H6 1 1
Greuther F. Eintracht F. 2 2 3 2 H2 2 3
Fortuna D Bremen 1 2 2 2 H2 2 2
2011/2012
Augsburg Kaiser. H5 2 2
Augsburg Schalke H6 1 1
Bayern Augsburg H1 2 1
Hoffenheim Mainz H9 1 1
Kaiser. Hertha H5 1 1
Leverkusen Kaiser. H1 3 1
Schalke Dortmund H9 1 2
Stuttgart Bayern M. H6 1 2
n the table below I have added all the games in Bundesliga since 2010-2012 where the home team opened the scoring 0-10 and 1-1 half time and I have added the shot on target data from the 2012-2013 season
11-19-13 <> the home teams won 26% , 1/0.26 = 3.85
TRADING STRATEGY
Back against the home team in the Bundesliga ( lay ) at half time in games where the home team open the scoring 0-10 minutes and 1-1 half time and hedge with a cover of the correct score 2-1 to the home team .
If you followed the above strategy in the table below then you would have won 39/43 TRADES = 91%
Summary
In Bundesliga in games where the home team open the scoring 0-10 minutes and 1-1 half time , there will be expectation that although it is likely that the home shot on target average will be higher then the away team in the second half , it is likely that the away team will be more accurate in the second half.
First Half SOT 2nd half SOT T FT
2016/2017
Leipzig Schalke 3 3 2 2 H2 2 1
2015/2016
Hertha Bremen 1 1 1 2 H6 1 1
Hoffenheim Bayern M. 1 4 0 5 H1 1 2
Köln Ingolstadt 3 4 1 1 H10 1 1
Hertha Leverkusen 2 2 2 0 H7 2 1
Hannover Darmsatdt 3 2 2 3 H10 1 2
Schalke Bremen 2 1 2 5 H4 1 3
Ingolstadt Stuttgart 4 3 4 3 H4 3 3
Hertha Hannover 2 2 6 1 H4 2 2
Stuttgart Mainz 2 3 1 7 H6 1 3
2014/2015
Mainz Bremen 2 4 1 3 H3 1 2
Monch Hertha 4 1 6 2 H9 3 2
Dortmund Wolfsburg 2 2 4 2 H8 2 2
Wolfsburg Hertha 1 2 4 0 H10 2 1
Augsburg Stuttgart 2 5 2 2 H7 2 1
Schalke Stuttgart 2 2 4 5 H9 3 2
Wolfsburg Dortmund 4 3 4 1 H1 2 1
Paderborn Stuttgart 2 2 3 1 H4 1 2
2013/2014
Freiburg Hertha 1 2 1 2 H6 1 1
Stuttgart Bremen 3 2 3 0 H5 1 1
Stuttgart Nunrberg 2 3 2 3 H3 1 1
Hertha Nurnberg 4 1 0 3 H4 1 3
Broussia M. Augsburg 4 3 4 1 H5 1 2
Augsburg Schalke 2 3 1 1 H5 1 2
Mainz Hamburg 1 4 5 3 H8 3 2
2012/2013
Hoffenheim Greuter F. 2 4 9 4 H8 3 3
Greuther F. Bremen 2 5 1 3 H8 1 1
Fortuna D Hoffenheim 1 1 2 1 H4 1 1
Broussia M. Stuttgart 5 2 0 4 H7 1 2
Augsburg Freiburg 1 2 3 1 H9 1 1
Mainz Hannover 2 2 1 2 H10 2 1
Mainz Wolfsburg 1 2 1 1 H5 1 1
Fortuna D Mainz 2 2 1 1 H6 1 1
Greuther F. Eintracht F. 2 2 3 2 H2 2 3
Fortuna D Bremen 1 2 2 2 H2 2 2
2011/2012
Augsburg Kaiser. H5 2 2
Augsburg Schalke H6 1 1
Bayern Augsburg H1 2 1
Hoffenheim Mainz H9 1 1
Kaiser. Hertha H5 1 1
Leverkusen Kaiser. H1 3 1
Schalke Dortmund H9 1 2
Stuttgart Bayern M. H6 1 2
at 2-1 Eibar were offered at 2/5 >
La liga in games where the home team opened the scoring 0-10 minutes > 2-0 > FT
3-1 3-1 2-0 3-2 2-1 2-0 2-3 4-2 5-0 2-2 3-1 4-1 5-0 5-2 2-0 5-0 2-3 4-0 4-0 4-0 6-0 4-0 3-0 3-0 2-0 3-0 6-0 3-1 5-1 6-0 5-1 4-0 2-0 4-1 2-0 2-0 2-1 3-1 4-0 3-1 2-0 3-1 5-0
40
-1-2
La liga in games where the home team opened the scoring 0-10 minutes > 2-0 > FT
3-1 3-1 2-0 3-2 2-1 2-0 2-3 4-2 5-0 2-2 3-1 4-1 5-0 5-2 2-0 5-0 2-3 4-0 4-0 4-0 6-0 4-0 3-0 3-0 2-0 3-0 6-0 3-1 5-1 6-0 5-1 4-0 2-0 4-1 2-0 2-0 2-1 3-1 4-0 3-1 2-0 3-1 5-0
40
-1-20-1 half time added to the early away goal metric Ligue 2 2014-2015 > 48% ended under 2.5 goals and the away teams won the second half of the game in only 14% 
0-1 half time added to the early away goal metric Ligue 2 2013-2014 > 59% ended under 2.5 goals and the away teams won the second half of the game in only 19%
0-1 half time added to the early away goal metric ligue 2 2015-2016 > 68% ended under 2.5 goals and the away teams won the second half of the games in only 19%
Red Star
19 : 45
Reims View events More info
0 - 1
10' G. Kyei
at HT Reims were offered at 7/4 to win the 2nd half when they should have been 4/1 + to win the 2nd half
0-1 half time added to the early away goal metric Ligue 2 2013-2014 > 59% ended under 2.5 goals and the away teams won the second half of the game in only 19%
0-1 half time added to the early away goal metric ligue 2 2015-2016 > 68% ended under 2.5 goals and the away teams won the second half of the games in only 19%
Red Star
19 : 45
Reims View events More info
0 - 1
10' G. Kyei
at HT Reims were offered at 7/4 to win the 2nd half when they should have been 4/1 + to win the 2nd half
Cassini wrote:at 1-1 HT > Wolfsburg were offered at 6/5 ( 2.4 on the exchange ) and 2-1 FT to Wolfsburg was offered at 4.3-4.6
n the table below I have added all the games in Bundesliga since 2010-2012 where the home team opened the scoring 0-10 and 1-1 half time and I have added the shot on target data from the 2012-2013 season
11-19-13 <> the home teams won 26% , 1/0.26 = 3.85
TRADING STRATEGY
Back against the home team in the Bundesliga ( lay ) at half time in games where the home team open the scoring 0-10 minutes and 1-1 half time and hedge with a cover of the correct score 2-1 to the home team .
If you followed the above strategy in the table below then you would have won 39/43 TRADES = 91%
Summary
In Bundesliga in games where the home team open the scoring 0-10 minutes and 1-1 half time , there will be expectation that although it is likely that the home shot on target average will be higher then the away team in the second half , it is likely that the away team will be more accurate in the second half.
First Half SOT 2nd half SOT T FT
2016/2017
Leipzig Schalke 3 3 2 2 H2 2 1
2015/2016
Hertha Bremen 1 1 1 2 H6 1 1
Hoffenheim Bayern M. 1 4 0 5 H1 1 2
Köln Ingolstadt 3 4 1 1 H10 1 1
Hertha Leverkusen 2 2 2 0 H7 2 1
Hannover Darmsatdt 3 2 2 3 H10 1 2
Schalke Bremen 2 1 2 5 H4 1 3
Ingolstadt Stuttgart 4 3 4 3 H4 3 3
Hertha Hannover 2 2 6 1 H4 2 2
Stuttgart Mainz 2 3 1 7 H6 1 3
2014/2015
Mainz Bremen 2 4 1 3 H3 1 2
Monch Hertha 4 1 6 2 H9 3 2
Dortmund Wolfsburg 2 2 4 2 H8 2 2
Wolfsburg Hertha 1 2 4 0 H10 2 1
Augsburg Stuttgart 2 5 2 2 H7 2 1
Schalke Stuttgart 2 2 4 5 H9 3 2
Wolfsburg Dortmund 4 3 4 1 H1 2 1
Paderborn Stuttgart 2 2 3 1 H4 1 2
2013/2014
Freiburg Hertha 1 2 1 2 H6 1 1
Stuttgart Bremen 3 2 3 0 H5 1 1
Stuttgart Nunrberg 2 3 2 3 H3 1 1
Hertha Nurnberg 4 1 0 3 H4 1 3
Broussia M. Augsburg 4 3 4 1 H5 1 2
Augsburg Schalke 2 3 1 1 H5 1 2
Mainz Hamburg 1 4 5 3 H8 3 2
2012/2013
Hoffenheim Greuter F. 2 4 9 4 H8 3 3
Greuther F. Bremen 2 5 1 3 H8 1 1
Fortuna D Hoffenheim 1 1 2 1 H4 1 1
Broussia M. Stuttgart 5 2 0 4 H7 1 2
Augsburg Freiburg 1 2 3 1 H9 1 1
Mainz Hannover 2 2 1 2 H10 2 1
Mainz Wolfsburg 1 2 1 1 H5 1 1
Fortuna D Mainz 2 2 1 1 H6 1 1
Greuther F. Eintracht F. 2 2 3 2 H2 2 3
Fortuna D Bremen 1 2 2 2 H2 2 2
2011/2012
Augsburg Kaiser. H5 2 2
Augsburg Schalke H6 1 1
Bayern Augsburg H1 2 1
Hoffenheim Mainz H9 1 1
Kaiser. Hertha H5 1 1
Leverkusen Kaiser. H1 3 1
Schalke Dortmund H9 1 2
Stuttgart Bayern M. H6 1 2
You may have spotted that Bayern at 1-1 HT were offered at 1/2
