Chelsea last 37 away games in the Premier League when opening the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band
28-2 Sunny -7
< Chelsea open the scoring tonight in the 0-20 minutes time band > would there be lowered expectation of a draw or would it be random ? regression to the mean so back the draw ??????
key point > would see lower expectation of a draw for the simple reason > expectation of acceleration of goal production and if the game was 0-1 HT > ( goal 0-20 ) < lowered expectation of Liverpool fighting back so > lowered expectation of a draw
In the table below I have added all the games since 2003-2004 where Chelsea conceded the opening goal away in the league in the 0-10 minutes time band and 68% ended over 2.5 goals
Chelsea won 27%, 23% ended a draw and they lost 50%
Both teams scored in 73%
T HT FT
WBA Chelsea 9 1 0 3 0
Liverpool Chelsea 9 1 1 1 2
Everton Chelsea 2 1 1 1 2
WBA Chelsea 10 1 1 2 1
Everton Chelsea 5 1 0 2 0
Spurs Chelsea 8 1 1 1 1
QPR Chelsea 10 1 0 1 0
Man UTD Chelsea 8 3 0 3 1
Man UTD Chelsea 1 2 0 2 1
Stoke Chelsea 8 1 1 1 1
Sunderland Chelsea 4 2 2 2 4
Wolves Chelsea 5 1 0 1 0
Newcastle Chelsea 6 1 1 1 1
Fulham Chelsea 10 1 0 2 2
Fulham Chelsea 10 1 0 1 2
Liverpool Chelsea 3 2 0 4 1
Boro Chelsea 2 2 0 3 1
Man UTD Chelsea 7 1 1 2 1
Arsenal Chelsea 2 2 1 1 1
Blackburn Chelsea 3 1 2 0 1
Charlton Chelsea 1 2 1 1 1
Arsenal Chelsea 5 1 1 2 1
Liverpool since 2003-2004 at home in the Premier League have conceded the opening goal in the 0-20 time band in 18 games, and 67% ended over 2.5 goals.
Both team scored in 78% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 44%.
6-6-6
T HT FT
Liverpool Stoke 12 2 1 4 1
Liverpool WHU 3 0 2 0 3
Liverpool Man UTD 14 0 1 1 2
Liverpool Villa 9 0 1 0 1
Liverpool Newcastle 20 0 1 2 1
Liverpool Fulham 5 0 1 0 1
Liverpool Villa 10 0 1 1 1
Liverpool Spurs 9 0 1 0 2
Liverpool Hull 12 2 2 2 2
Liverpool Man UTD 3 1 1 2 1
Liverpool Reading 5 1 1 2 1
Liverpool Boro 9 2 1 3 2
Liverpool Charlton 2 0 1 2 2
Liverpool Blackburn 17 0 1 1 1
Liverpool WHU 12 2 1 2 1
Liverpool Boro 4 0 1 1 1
Liverpool Spurs 12 1 1 2 2
Liverpool Southampton 2 0 1 1 2
Liverpool last 20 at home in the PL when conceding the opening goal Eek 2-5-13
20 : 00
Chelsea last 20 at away in the PL when conceding the opening goal 11-2-7
Chelsea won a whopping 7/20 <> Number 1 in that profile in the PL
Effect of 2nd half away fightback in the Premier League
Southampton away fightback on 57 minutes
3/1 20/21 9/4
over 2.5 is offered at at 4/7
1. Since 2008-2009 in the Premier league in games where the home team winning 1-0 half time , only 6% away wins
2. Southampton last 20 away games in the Premier League when losing 1-0 half time , won 0/20
3. 3. The last 83 games in the Premier League where the home team were winning 1-0 at half time added to the 2nd half away fightback ( 1-1 ) in the 46-70 time band
34-30-17 <> away teams won 20% = 4/1
77% 1.30 of the games in the table below ended over 2.5 goals
T T+1 HT FT
Swansea South 38 57 1 0 2 1
Chelsea Stoke 34 46 1 0 4 2
Hull Palace 27 52 1 0 3 3
Man City Chelsea 45 60 1 0 1 3
Arsenal Spurs 42 51 1 0 1 1
Spurs Leicester 44 48 1 0 1 1
Burnley Everton 39 58 1 0 2 1
Swansea Liverpool 8 54 1 0 1 2
Everton Palace 35 50 1 0 1 1
Watford Man UTD 34 62 1 0 3 1
Everton Spurs 5 59 1 0 1 1
Boro Stoke 11 67 1 0 1 1
Hull Leicester 45 47 1 0 2 1
WHU Man UTD 10 51 1 0 3 2
Sunderland Palace 36 61 1 0 2 2
Swansea Palace 13 47 1 0 1 1
Palace Spurs 30 63 1 0 1 3
Bourne WHU 17 67 1 0 1 3
Sunderland Villa 30 63 1 0 3 1
Newcastle Villa 38 61 1 0 1 1
WHU WBA 17 50 1 0 1 1
WBA Leicester 30 57 1 0 2 3
WHU Chelsea 17 56 1 0 2 1
Leiecster Chelsea 45 48 1 0 1 3
Villa West Brom 22 66 1 0 2 1
Villa Man UTD 18 52 1 0 1 1
Everton Hull City 34 59 1 0 1 1
Burnley Newcastle 34 48 1 0 1 1
Hull Spurs 8 61 1 0 1 2
Everton West Ham 26 56 1 0 2 1
Chelsea QPR 32 62 1 0 2 1
Spurs Newcastle 18 46 1 0 1 2
WBA Man UTD 8 48 1 0 2 2
Man UTD Everton 27 55 1 0 2 1
Liverpool West Brom 45 56 1 0 2 1
Hull West Ham 39 50 1 0 2 2
Liverpool Southampton 23 56 1 0 2 1
Southampton Man UTD 28 54 1 0 1 1
West Ham Hull City 26 48 1 0 2 1
Swansea West Brom 2 52 1 0 1 2
Cardiff Fulham 45 59 1 0 3 1
Stoke Swansea 17 52 1 0 1 1
Hull Spurs 12 61 1 0 1 1
Stoke Man UTD 38 47 1 0 2 1
Southampton Arsenal 21 48 1 0 2 2
Everton Fulham 18 67 1 0 4 1
Newcastle Southampton 27 65 1 0 1 1
Newcastle West Brom 36 53 1 0 2 1
Chelsea West Brom 45 60 1 0 2 2
Chelsea Man City 33 49 1 0 2 1
Sunderland Newcastle 5 57 1 0 2 1
West Brom Arsenal 42 63 1 0 1 1
Sunderland Man UTD 5 55 1 0 1 2
Spurs Chelsea 19 65 1 0 1 1
West Ham Everton 31 62 1 0 2 3
Hull Cardiff 40 59 1 0 1 1
Palace Sunderland 9 64 1 0 3 1
Man UTD Swansea 39 49 1 0 2 1
Villa Chelsea 14 61 1 0 1 2
Wigan Swansea 45 50 1 0 2 3
Villa Liverpool 31 47 1 0 1 2
Arsenal Villa 6 68 1 0 2 1
Wigan Southampton 25 64 1 0 2 2
Newcastle Chelsea 41 55 1 0 3 2
Fulham West Ham 10 48 1 0 3 1
Sunderland Spurs 40 48 1 0 1 2
West Ham Everton 14 64 1 0 1 2
Norwich Wigan 15 51 1 0 2 1
Fulham Newcastle 19 54 1 0 2 1
Fulham Everton 7 55 1 0 2 2
Newcastle West Brom 35 55 1 0 2 1
Reading Fulham 26 61 1 0 3 3
Southampton Fulham 4 69 1 0 2 2
Everton Newcastle 15 49 1 0 2 2
Man City QPR 16 59 1 0 3 1
Liverpool Man City 34 63 1 0 2 2
Man City Southampton 40 59 1 0 3 2
Man City QPR 39 48 1 0 3 2
Villa Spurs 35 61 1 0 1 1
Spurs Swansea 19 59 1 0 3 1
Norwich Wigan 10 68 1 0 1 1
Bolton QPR 37 48 1 0 2 1
Swansea Norwich 23 48 1 0 2 3
3/1 20/21 9/4
over 2.5 is offered at at 4/7
1. Since 2008-2009 in the Premier league in games where the home team winning 1-0 half time , only 6% away wins
2. Southampton last 20 away games in the Premier League when losing 1-0 half time , won 0/20
3. 3. The last 83 games in the Premier League where the home team were winning 1-0 at half time added to the 2nd half away fightback ( 1-1 ) in the 46-70 time band
34-30-17 <> away teams won 20% = 4/1
77% 1.30 of the games in the table below ended over 2.5 goals
T T+1 HT FT
Swansea South 38 57 1 0 2 1
Chelsea Stoke 34 46 1 0 4 2
Hull Palace 27 52 1 0 3 3
Man City Chelsea 45 60 1 0 1 3
Arsenal Spurs 42 51 1 0 1 1
Spurs Leicester 44 48 1 0 1 1
Burnley Everton 39 58 1 0 2 1
Swansea Liverpool 8 54 1 0 1 2
Everton Palace 35 50 1 0 1 1
Watford Man UTD 34 62 1 0 3 1
Everton Spurs 5 59 1 0 1 1
Boro Stoke 11 67 1 0 1 1
Hull Leicester 45 47 1 0 2 1
WHU Man UTD 10 51 1 0 3 2
Sunderland Palace 36 61 1 0 2 2
Swansea Palace 13 47 1 0 1 1
Palace Spurs 30 63 1 0 1 3
Bourne WHU 17 67 1 0 1 3
Sunderland Villa 30 63 1 0 3 1
Newcastle Villa 38 61 1 0 1 1
WHU WBA 17 50 1 0 1 1
WBA Leicester 30 57 1 0 2 3
WHU Chelsea 17 56 1 0 2 1
Leiecster Chelsea 45 48 1 0 1 3
Villa West Brom 22 66 1 0 2 1
Villa Man UTD 18 52 1 0 1 1
Everton Hull City 34 59 1 0 1 1
Burnley Newcastle 34 48 1 0 1 1
Hull Spurs 8 61 1 0 1 2
Everton West Ham 26 56 1 0 2 1
Chelsea QPR 32 62 1 0 2 1
Spurs Newcastle 18 46 1 0 1 2
WBA Man UTD 8 48 1 0 2 2
Man UTD Everton 27 55 1 0 2 1
Liverpool West Brom 45 56 1 0 2 1
Hull West Ham 39 50 1 0 2 2
Liverpool Southampton 23 56 1 0 2 1
Southampton Man UTD 28 54 1 0 1 1
West Ham Hull City 26 48 1 0 2 1
Swansea West Brom 2 52 1 0 1 2
Cardiff Fulham 45 59 1 0 3 1
Stoke Swansea 17 52 1 0 1 1
Hull Spurs 12 61 1 0 1 1
Stoke Man UTD 38 47 1 0 2 1
Southampton Arsenal 21 48 1 0 2 2
Everton Fulham 18 67 1 0 4 1
Newcastle Southampton 27 65 1 0 1 1
Newcastle West Brom 36 53 1 0 2 1
Chelsea West Brom 45 60 1 0 2 2
Chelsea Man City 33 49 1 0 2 1
Sunderland Newcastle 5 57 1 0 2 1
West Brom Arsenal 42 63 1 0 1 1
Sunderland Man UTD 5 55 1 0 1 2
Spurs Chelsea 19 65 1 0 1 1
West Ham Everton 31 62 1 0 2 3
Hull Cardiff 40 59 1 0 1 1
Palace Sunderland 9 64 1 0 3 1
Man UTD Swansea 39 49 1 0 2 1
Villa Chelsea 14 61 1 0 1 2
Wigan Swansea 45 50 1 0 2 3
Villa Liverpool 31 47 1 0 1 2
Arsenal Villa 6 68 1 0 2 1
Wigan Southampton 25 64 1 0 2 2
Newcastle Chelsea 41 55 1 0 3 2
Fulham West Ham 10 48 1 0 3 1
Sunderland Spurs 40 48 1 0 1 2
West Ham Everton 14 64 1 0 1 2
Norwich Wigan 15 51 1 0 2 1
Fulham Newcastle 19 54 1 0 2 1
Fulham Everton 7 55 1 0 2 2
Newcastle West Brom 35 55 1 0 2 1
Reading Fulham 26 61 1 0 3 3
Southampton Fulham 4 69 1 0 2 2
Everton Newcastle 15 49 1 0 2 2
Man City QPR 16 59 1 0 3 1
Liverpool Man City 34 63 1 0 2 2
Man City Southampton 40 59 1 0 3 2
Man City QPR 39 48 1 0 3 2
Villa Spurs 35 61 1 0 1 1
Spurs Swansea 19 59 1 0 3 1
Norwich Wigan 10 68 1 0 1 1
Bolton QPR 37 48 1 0 2 1
Swansea Norwich 23 48 1 0 2 3
Liverpool home fightback
9/4 20/21 3/1
Last 50 games in the Premier League 0-1 HT with the opening goal in the 21-30 minute time band >
6-13-31
21/50 > 1-1 <> 6-12-3 <> 57% ended a DRAW < draw bias = 1.75 > Liverpool at 1-1 should have been around 5/2 and Chelsea at 1-1 > out with washing
9/4 20/21 3/1
Last 50 games in the Premier League 0-1 HT with the opening goal in the 21-30 minute time band >
6-13-31
21/50 > 1-1 <> 6-12-3 <> 57% ended a DRAW < draw bias = 1.75 > Liverpool at 1-1 should have been around 5/2 and Chelsea at 1-1 > out with washing
In the table below I have added all the games since 2003-2004 where Everton conceded the opening goal away in the league in the 0-10 minutes time band and 67% ended over 2.5 goals
16-8-3 <> Everton lost 59%
Both teams scored in 67% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 70%
T HT FT
Hull Everton 6 1 1 2 2
Southampton Everton 1 1 0 1 0
WBA Everton 9 1 1 1 2
Leicester Everton 5 2 0 3 1
Villa Everton 10 2 0 3 2
Southampton Everton 1 2 0 2 0
Chelsea Everton 7 1 1 2 1
Spurs Everton 1 1 1 2 2
Newcastle Everton 2 1 1 1 2
Fulham Everton 7 1 0 2 2
QPR Everton 2 1 1 1 1
Wigan Everton 10 2 1 2 2
WBA Everton 10 1 0 1 0
Bolton Everton 10 1 0 2 0
Blackpool Everton 10 1 1 2 2
Villa Everton 9 1 0 1 0
Hull Everton 9 3 0 3 2
Liverpool Everton 7 1 0 1 0
WHU Everton 10 2 1 2 2
Arsenal Everton 8 3 0 7 0
Newcastle Everton 5 1 0 1 1
Palace Everton 9 1 1 1 3
Newcastle Everton 5 2 1 4 2
Birmingham Everton 8 2 0 3 0
Man UTD Everton 9 2 1 3 2
Blackburn Everton 6 2 0 2 1
Boro Everton 6 1 0 1 0
16-8-3 <> Everton lost 59%
Both teams scored in 67% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 70%
T HT FT
Hull Everton 6 1 1 2 2
Southampton Everton 1 1 0 1 0
WBA Everton 9 1 1 1 2
Leicester Everton 5 2 0 3 1
Villa Everton 10 2 0 3 2
Southampton Everton 1 2 0 2 0
Chelsea Everton 7 1 1 2 1
Spurs Everton 1 1 1 2 2
Newcastle Everton 2 1 1 1 2
Fulham Everton 7 1 0 2 2
QPR Everton 2 1 1 1 1
Wigan Everton 10 2 1 2 2
WBA Everton 10 1 0 1 0
Bolton Everton 10 1 0 2 0
Blackpool Everton 10 1 1 2 2
Villa Everton 9 1 0 1 0
Hull Everton 9 3 0 3 2
Liverpool Everton 7 1 0 1 0
WHU Everton 10 2 1 2 2
Arsenal Everton 8 3 0 7 0
Newcastle Everton 5 1 0 1 1
Palace Everton 9 1 1 1 3
Newcastle Everton 5 2 1 4 2
Birmingham Everton 8 2 0 3 0
Man UTD Everton 9 2 1 3 2
Blackburn Everton 6 2 0 2 1
Boro Everton 6 1 0 1 0
In the Premier League LAST season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band, 73% ended over 2.5 goals and 51% ended over 3.5 goals
Both teams scored in 56% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 73%
The home teams won 78%, 15% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 7% < lowered expectation of the games ending a DRAW
31% of the games in the table below produced a goal 80 + minutes
GAME PATHWAY
3/41 1-0 FT
26/41 > 2-0 24-2-0 <> home teams won 92%
12/41 > 1-1 5-4-3 home teams won 42%
Both teams scored in 56% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 73%
The home teams won 78%, 15% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 7% < lowered expectation of the games ending a DRAW
31% of the games in the table below produced a goal 80 + minutes
GAME PATHWAY
3/41 1-0 FT
26/41 > 2-0 24-2-0 <> home teams won 92%
12/41 > 1-1 5-4-3 home teams won 42%
in the Championship LAST season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band , 70% ended over 2.5 goals and 38% ended over 3.5 goals
The home teams won 68%, 20% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 12% < lowered expectation of the away teams fighting back .
Both teams scored in 68% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 64%
The home teams won the first half in 82% of the games
1-0 half added to the early home goal metric in the Championship this season , 50% ended a home win , 39% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 11% with 72% ending under 2.5 goals
44% produced a goal 80 +
GAME PATHWAY
FT 1-0 > 6/50 12%
> 2-0 22/50 <> 20-2-0 <> home teams won 91%
> 1-1 > 22/50 <> 8-8-6 <> home teams won 36%
Newcastle opened the scoring > 1-1 pathway
The home teams won 68%, 20% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 12% < lowered expectation of the away teams fighting back .
Both teams scored in 68% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 64%
The home teams won the first half in 82% of the games
1-0 half added to the early home goal metric in the Championship this season , 50% ended a home win , 39% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 11% with 72% ending under 2.5 goals
44% produced a goal 80 +
GAME PATHWAY
FT 1-0 > 6/50 12%
> 2-0 22/50 <> 20-2-0 <> home teams won 91%
> 1-1 > 22/50 <> 8-8-6 <> home teams won 36%
Newcastle opened the scoring > 1-1 pathway
1-1 half time in the Premier League added to the early home goal metric ( first goal of the game ) and there will be lowered expectation of the home team winning the game as a result of expectation of lowered accuracy in the second half and you should back against ( LAY THE HOME TEAM ) at half time and HEDGE with the correct score 2-1.
If you followed the above trading strategy in the 62 games in the table below then you would have won 58/62 trades
16-25-21 <> 77% over 2.5 goals and 44% over 3.5 goals
T HT FT
Hull Everton 6 1 1 2 2
South Spurs 2 1 1 1 4
Bourne South 6 1 1 1 3
Stoke Swansea 3 1 1 3 1
WBA Everton 9 1 1 1 2
Man City Arsenal 8 1 1 2 2
Man UTD Leicester 8 1 1 1 1
Everton Bournemouth 7 1 1 2 1
Sunderland Man UTD 3 1 1 2 1
West Ham Man City 1 1 1 2 2
Bournemouth Man UTD 2 1 1 2 1
Chelsea Liverpool 4 1 1 1 3
Chelsea Southampton 10 1 1 1 3
Chelsea Liverpool 5 1 1 1 1
Spurs Swansea 7 1 1 3 2
Spurs Sunderland 3 1 1 2 1
Stoke Man UTD 2 1 1 1 1
West Ham WBA 10 1 1 1 1
Sunderland Hull 1 1 1 1 3
Liverpool Chelsea 9 1 1 1 2
Everton Palace 9 1 1 2 3
Fulham Liverpool 8 1 1 2 3
Villa Swansea 7 1 1 1 1
Stoke Southampton 1 1 1 1 1
Everton Hull 8 1 1 2 1
Chelsea Villa 6 1 1 2 1
Arsenal Villa 6 1 1 1 3
Chelsea Everton 7 1 1 2 1
Stoke Spurs 3 1 1 1 2
Arsenal Man UTD 2 1 1 1 1
Spurs Everton 1 1 1 2 2
Spurs Newcastle 5 1 1 2 1
Reading Sunderland 7 1 1 2 1
Newcastle Everton 2 1 1 1 2
Swansea Villa 9 1 1 2 2
Everton Chelsea 2 1 1 1 2
WBA Chelsea 10 1 1 2 1
QPR Everton 2 1 1 1 1
Fulham Man City 10 1 1 1 2
Wigan Stoke 5 1 1 2 2
Stoke Arsenal 10 1 1 1 1
Arsenal Wolves 8 1 1 1 1
Spurs Chelsea 8 1 1 1 1
Sunderland Wigan 8 1 1 1 2
WBA Spurs 10 1 1 1 3
Arsenal Sunderland 1 1 1 2 1
Chelsea Newcastle 2 1 1 2 2
West Ham Villa 2 1 1 1 2
Stoke Chelsea 8 1 1 1 1
Everton Spurs 3 1 1 2 1
Newcastle Chelsea 6 1 1 1 1
Blackpool Everton 10 1 1 2 2
Bolton Man UTD 6 1 1 2 2
Liverpool Sunderland 5 1 1 2 2
Portsmouth Villa 10 1 1 1 2
Hull Burnley 3 1 1 1 4
Stoke Arsenal 8 1 1 1 3
Everton Birmingham 5 1 1 1 1
Burnley Wigan 4 1 1 1 3
Bolton Spurs 4 1 1 2 2
Man UTD Man City 2 1 1 4 3
WBA Wigan 8 1 1 3 1
If you followed the above trading strategy in the 62 games in the table below then you would have won 58/62 trades
16-25-21 <> 77% over 2.5 goals and 44% over 3.5 goals
T HT FT
Hull Everton 6 1 1 2 2
South Spurs 2 1 1 1 4
Bourne South 6 1 1 1 3
Stoke Swansea 3 1 1 3 1
WBA Everton 9 1 1 1 2
Man City Arsenal 8 1 1 2 2
Man UTD Leicester 8 1 1 1 1
Everton Bournemouth 7 1 1 2 1
Sunderland Man UTD 3 1 1 2 1
West Ham Man City 1 1 1 2 2
Bournemouth Man UTD 2 1 1 2 1
Chelsea Liverpool 4 1 1 1 3
Chelsea Southampton 10 1 1 1 3
Chelsea Liverpool 5 1 1 1 1
Spurs Swansea 7 1 1 3 2
Spurs Sunderland 3 1 1 2 1
Stoke Man UTD 2 1 1 1 1
West Ham WBA 10 1 1 1 1
Sunderland Hull 1 1 1 1 3
Liverpool Chelsea 9 1 1 1 2
Everton Palace 9 1 1 2 3
Fulham Liverpool 8 1 1 2 3
Villa Swansea 7 1 1 1 1
Stoke Southampton 1 1 1 1 1
Everton Hull 8 1 1 2 1
Chelsea Villa 6 1 1 2 1
Arsenal Villa 6 1 1 1 3
Chelsea Everton 7 1 1 2 1
Stoke Spurs 3 1 1 1 2
Arsenal Man UTD 2 1 1 1 1
Spurs Everton 1 1 1 2 2
Spurs Newcastle 5 1 1 2 1
Reading Sunderland 7 1 1 2 1
Newcastle Everton 2 1 1 1 2
Swansea Villa 9 1 1 2 2
Everton Chelsea 2 1 1 1 2
WBA Chelsea 10 1 1 2 1
QPR Everton 2 1 1 1 1
Fulham Man City 10 1 1 1 2
Wigan Stoke 5 1 1 2 2
Stoke Arsenal 10 1 1 1 1
Arsenal Wolves 8 1 1 1 1
Spurs Chelsea 8 1 1 1 1
Sunderland Wigan 8 1 1 1 2
WBA Spurs 10 1 1 1 3
Arsenal Sunderland 1 1 1 2 1
Chelsea Newcastle 2 1 1 2 2
West Ham Villa 2 1 1 1 2
Stoke Chelsea 8 1 1 1 1
Everton Spurs 3 1 1 2 1
Newcastle Chelsea 6 1 1 1 1
Blackpool Everton 10 1 1 2 2
Bolton Man UTD 6 1 1 2 2
Liverpool Sunderland 5 1 1 2 2
Portsmouth Villa 10 1 1 1 2
Hull Burnley 3 1 1 1 4
Stoke Arsenal 8 1 1 1 3
Everton Birmingham 5 1 1 1 1
Burnley Wigan 4 1 1 1 3
Bolton Spurs 4 1 1 2 2
Man UTD Man City 2 1 1 4 3
WBA Wigan 8 1 1 3 1
West Ham since 2005-2006 at home in the Premier League have conceded the opening goal in the 0-20 time band in 43 games, 77% ended over 2.5 goals and 51% ended over 3.5 goals
Both team scored in 79% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 58%.
11-10-22 <> West Ham lost 51%
T HT FT
WHU City 17 0 3 0 4
WHU Arsenal 18 2 2 3 3
WHU Palace 15 2 1 2 2
WHU Southampton 13 0 1 2 1
WHU Norwich 9 1 1 2 2
WHU Bournemouth 11 0 2 3 4
WHU Swansea 19 1 1 3 1
WHU Man UTD 8 0 2 0 2
WHU Southampton 8 2 1 3 1
WHU Newcastle 16 1 2 1 3
WHU Man City 16 0 1 1 3
WHU Spurs 13 1 1 2 3
WHU QPR 14 0 1 1 1
WHU Liverpool 11 2 1 2 3
WHU Chelsea 13 0 1 3 1
WHU Stoke 13 0 1 1 1
WHU Sunderland 10 0 1 1 1
WHU Sunderland 17 0 1 0 3
WHU Blackburn 13 0 1 1 1
WHU Arsenal 13 0 2 0 3
WHU Chelsea 2 0 2 1 3
WHU Wigan 4 2 1 3 2
WHU Bolton 10 0 2 1 2
WHU Arsenal 16 0 2 2 2
WHU Liverpool 20 2 2 2 3
WHU Liverpool 2 0 2 0 3
WHU Stoke 4 0 1 2 1
WHU Blackburn 19 1 1 2 1
WHU Chelsea 17 0 3 0 4
WHU Fulham 7 1 1 2 1
WHU Man UTD 14 0 1 2 1
WHU Arsenal 12 0 1 0 1
WHU Man City 18 0 1 0 2
WHU Watford 12 0 1 0 1
WHU Fulham 16 1 1 3 3
WHU Portsmouth 16 0 2 1 2
WHU Reading 2 0 1 0 1
WHU Villa 4 0 1 1 1
WHU Charlton 15 0 1 3 1
WHU Liverpool 19 0 1 1 2
WHU Portsmouth 19 0 3 2 4
WHU Newcastle 5 1 2 2 4
WHU Blackburn 18 0 1 3 1
Both team scored in 79% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 58%.
11-10-22 <> West Ham lost 51%
T HT FT
WHU City 17 0 3 0 4
WHU Arsenal 18 2 2 3 3
WHU Palace 15 2 1 2 2
WHU Southampton 13 0 1 2 1
WHU Norwich 9 1 1 2 2
WHU Bournemouth 11 0 2 3 4
WHU Swansea 19 1 1 3 1
WHU Man UTD 8 0 2 0 2
WHU Southampton 8 2 1 3 1
WHU Newcastle 16 1 2 1 3
WHU Man City 16 0 1 1 3
WHU Spurs 13 1 1 2 3
WHU QPR 14 0 1 1 1
WHU Liverpool 11 2 1 2 3
WHU Chelsea 13 0 1 3 1
WHU Stoke 13 0 1 1 1
WHU Sunderland 10 0 1 1 1
WHU Sunderland 17 0 1 0 3
WHU Blackburn 13 0 1 1 1
WHU Arsenal 13 0 2 0 3
WHU Chelsea 2 0 2 1 3
WHU Wigan 4 2 1 3 2
WHU Bolton 10 0 2 1 2
WHU Arsenal 16 0 2 2 2
WHU Liverpool 20 2 2 2 3
WHU Liverpool 2 0 2 0 3
WHU Stoke 4 0 1 2 1
WHU Blackburn 19 1 1 2 1
WHU Chelsea 17 0 3 0 4
WHU Fulham 7 1 1 2 1
WHU Man UTD 14 0 1 2 1
WHU Arsenal 12 0 1 0 1
WHU Man City 18 0 1 0 2
WHU Watford 12 0 1 0 1
WHU Fulham 16 1 1 3 3
WHU Portsmouth 16 0 2 1 2
WHU Reading 2 0 1 0 1
WHU Villa 4 0 1 1 1
WHU Charlton 15 0 1 3 1
WHU Liverpool 19 0 1 1 2
WHU Portsmouth 19 0 3 2 4
WHU Newcastle 5 1 2 2 4
WHU Blackburn 18 0 1 3 1
In the table below I have added all the games since 2003-2004 where Everton conceded the opening goal away in the league in the 0-10 minutes time band and 64% ended over 2.5 goals
16-9-3 <> Everton lost 57%
Both teams scored in 68% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 71%
T HT FT
Stoke Everton 7 1 1 1 1
Hull Everton 6 1 1 2 2
Southampton Everton 1 1 0 1 0
WBA Everton 9 1 1 1 2
Leicester Everton 5 2 0 3 1
Villa Everton 10 2 0 3 2
Southampton Everton 1 2 0 2 0
Chelsea Everton 7 1 1 2 1
Spurs Everton 1 1 1 2 2
Newcastle Everton 2 1 1 1 2
Fulham Everton 7 1 0 2 2
QPR Everton 2 1 1 1 1
Wigan Everton 10 2 1 2 2
WBA Everton 10 1 0 1 0
Bolton Everton 10 1 0 2 0
Blackpool Everton 10 1 1 2 2
Villa Everton 9 1 0 1 0
Hull Everton 9 3 0 3 2
Liverpool Everton 7 1 0 1 0
WHU Everton 10 2 1 2 2
Arsenal Everton 8 3 0 7 0
Newcastle Everton 5 1 0 1 1
Palace Everton 9 1 1 1 3
Newcastle Everton 5 2 1 4 2
Birmingham Everton 8 2 0 3 0
Man UTD Everton 9 2 1 3 2
Blackburn Everton 6 2 0 2 1
Boro Everton 6 1 0 1 0
16-9-3 <> Everton lost 57%
Both teams scored in 68% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 71%
T HT FT
Stoke Everton 7 1 1 1 1
Hull Everton 6 1 1 2 2
Southampton Everton 1 1 0 1 0
WBA Everton 9 1 1 1 2
Leicester Everton 5 2 0 3 1
Villa Everton 10 2 0 3 2
Southampton Everton 1 2 0 2 0
Chelsea Everton 7 1 1 2 1
Spurs Everton 1 1 1 2 2
Newcastle Everton 2 1 1 1 2
Fulham Everton 7 1 0 2 2
QPR Everton 2 1 1 1 1
Wigan Everton 10 2 1 2 2
WBA Everton 10 1 0 1 0
Bolton Everton 10 1 0 2 0
Blackpool Everton 10 1 1 2 2
Villa Everton 9 1 0 1 0
Hull Everton 9 3 0 3 2
Liverpool Everton 7 1 0 1 0
WHU Everton 10 2 1 2 2
Arsenal Everton 8 3 0 7 0
Newcastle Everton 5 1 0 1 1
Palace Everton 9 1 1 1 3
Newcastle Everton 5 2 1 4 2
Birmingham Everton 8 2 0 3 0
Man UTD Everton 9 2 1 3 2
Blackburn Everton 6 2 0 2 1
Boro Everton 6 1 0 1 0
When betting on soccer live bettors must be wary of falling into a trap of being swayed by events that occur in a relatively short space of time. This article looks at why bettors shouldn't overweigh the importance of a goal glut in the first half.
A rapid sequence of events, most notably multiple goals in a short timeframe are always memorable, but they are almost always uncharacteristic of the way in which a soccer match is played out.
This can lead to either an overreaction by live bettors as to how the course of a match will continue or how sides will perform subsequently in other contests by pregame bettors.
Chelsea vs. Bradford – An example of short termism & small sample size
Bradford City’s four-goal reply to falling 2-0 behind at Chelsea was astonishing. But it would be unwise to rely on this evidence to project Chelsea as being inferior to a mid-table League one side.
Small sample sizes can throw up anomalies, and if Chelsea were to play Bradford City numerous times would almost certainly prove themselves the superior team.
Chelsea are unlikely to have the opportunity to gain revenge in the near future for Bradford City’s audacious feat of scoring at the rate of a goal every 13 minutes for just over a half of soccer.
A typical Premier League game will have an average of 1.19 first half goals and 1.45 second half scores
But we can use the scoring feats of a wider batch of sides to illustrate that rare and unusual scoring patterns that will inevitably appear in matches are poor indicators of what might occur generally in the future.
Goalscoring pattern analysis in soccer
The average number of goals scored in the Premier League per game over the past decade is just over 2.6 goals. This number tends to rise as the gap between the relative strengths of the teams increases.
So two evenly matched teams might be expected to average less than the league average total goals and a mismatch between top and bottom might expect to see the average creep towards 3 goals per game.
The plot below shows how the probability of a particular number of goals being scored in a Premier League match changes as the favourite has an increased per-game likelihood of winning the contest. Goalless games become less likely as the gap in quality between the sides increases, while the chances of a game having 4 goals becomes more likely as the size of the mismatch increases.
article-1st-half-goals-in-soccer-graph.jpg
55% of the total goals are scored in the second half, as players begin to tire and more risks are taken. So in addition to the relative pre-game supremacy of the favourite driving total goals, we should expect, on average to see more goals scored in the second half than in the first.
A typical Premier League game will have an average of 1.19 first half goals and 1.45 second half scores. However, these figures are just averages. Nearly 70% of Premier League games had one or fewer first half goals, but over 10% of matches witnessed three or more goals being scored prior to the interval.
There are two scenarios that could be played out in matches where three or more goals are scored in the opening 45 minutes. If short-term recently occurring events are more important in determining the course of a game, we might expect to see the frequency of the scoring to continue into the second period when the first half has been full of goals.
Longer term trends are always more predictive of future events than short bursts of atypical performance
However, if, as we surmised with the Chelsea and Bradford City example, apparently unusual scoring rates are bound to happen from time to time, merely through random variation, we should expect subsequent events in the second half to more closely resemble our pre-game expectations based on the relative strengths of the two teams.
Over a five season period, Premier League matches where three or more goals were scored in the opening half, had an average of 1.6 goals in the second period. This compares to 1.52 goals per second half that were scored in games where one or fewer goals were recorded before the break.
So superficially it does appear that lots of goals in the opening 45 minutes do lead to more scoring in the second half, although the rise is small.
However, as we have seen in the plot above, the total goal expectation for a match is also dependent upon the gap in quality between the competing teams. And matches where three or more goals were scored in the first half in the sample also featured more short priced favourites than those games where scoring was scarcer in the first 45 minutes.
And once we account for this competitive imbalance between the two groups of matches, the number of goals scored in the second period of matches with 3 or more first half goals tallies closely with our pre-game estimates of how many second half goals would be scored.
Conclusion
In short, events, such as goals can occur in clumps quite naturally. But this shouldn’t be taken as a sign that rapid rates of scoring will continue within the game or that a team has suddenly become much improved or suddenly poorer than they have previously shown.
Longer term trends are always more predictive of future events than short bursts of atypical performance.
First half goal gluts don’t on average herald a continuation of higher than normal scoring, even within the same match and Chelsea can also continue to be confident that they will remain among the dominant Premier League teams, despite the short term heroics of their FA Cup conquerors, Bradford City.
This article therefore explains to bettors the danger in drawing faulty conclusions from limited, but memorable events, such as one off results or a large number of goals in the first half.
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-art ... are-events
what the author of the above article has concluded is flawed , people are conditioned to back unders in games that have a high first half goal production without understanding the effect of the variables that occurred in the first half such as an early goal metric,
A rapid sequence of events, most notably multiple goals in a short timeframe are always memorable, but they are almost always uncharacteristic of the way in which a soccer match is played out.
This can lead to either an overreaction by live bettors as to how the course of a match will continue or how sides will perform subsequently in other contests by pregame bettors.
Chelsea vs. Bradford – An example of short termism & small sample size
Bradford City’s four-goal reply to falling 2-0 behind at Chelsea was astonishing. But it would be unwise to rely on this evidence to project Chelsea as being inferior to a mid-table League one side.
Small sample sizes can throw up anomalies, and if Chelsea were to play Bradford City numerous times would almost certainly prove themselves the superior team.
Chelsea are unlikely to have the opportunity to gain revenge in the near future for Bradford City’s audacious feat of scoring at the rate of a goal every 13 minutes for just over a half of soccer.
A typical Premier League game will have an average of 1.19 first half goals and 1.45 second half scores
But we can use the scoring feats of a wider batch of sides to illustrate that rare and unusual scoring patterns that will inevitably appear in matches are poor indicators of what might occur generally in the future.
Goalscoring pattern analysis in soccer
The average number of goals scored in the Premier League per game over the past decade is just over 2.6 goals. This number tends to rise as the gap between the relative strengths of the teams increases.
So two evenly matched teams might be expected to average less than the league average total goals and a mismatch between top and bottom might expect to see the average creep towards 3 goals per game.
The plot below shows how the probability of a particular number of goals being scored in a Premier League match changes as the favourite has an increased per-game likelihood of winning the contest. Goalless games become less likely as the gap in quality between the sides increases, while the chances of a game having 4 goals becomes more likely as the size of the mismatch increases.
article-1st-half-goals-in-soccer-graph.jpg
55% of the total goals are scored in the second half, as players begin to tire and more risks are taken. So in addition to the relative pre-game supremacy of the favourite driving total goals, we should expect, on average to see more goals scored in the second half than in the first.
A typical Premier League game will have an average of 1.19 first half goals and 1.45 second half scores. However, these figures are just averages. Nearly 70% of Premier League games had one or fewer first half goals, but over 10% of matches witnessed three or more goals being scored prior to the interval.
There are two scenarios that could be played out in matches where three or more goals are scored in the opening 45 minutes. If short-term recently occurring events are more important in determining the course of a game, we might expect to see the frequency of the scoring to continue into the second period when the first half has been full of goals.
Longer term trends are always more predictive of future events than short bursts of atypical performance
However, if, as we surmised with the Chelsea and Bradford City example, apparently unusual scoring rates are bound to happen from time to time, merely through random variation, we should expect subsequent events in the second half to more closely resemble our pre-game expectations based on the relative strengths of the two teams.
Over a five season period, Premier League matches where three or more goals were scored in the opening half, had an average of 1.6 goals in the second period. This compares to 1.52 goals per second half that were scored in games where one or fewer goals were recorded before the break.
So superficially it does appear that lots of goals in the opening 45 minutes do lead to more scoring in the second half, although the rise is small.
However, as we have seen in the plot above, the total goal expectation for a match is also dependent upon the gap in quality between the competing teams. And matches where three or more goals were scored in the first half in the sample also featured more short priced favourites than those games where scoring was scarcer in the first 45 minutes.
And once we account for this competitive imbalance between the two groups of matches, the number of goals scored in the second period of matches with 3 or more first half goals tallies closely with our pre-game estimates of how many second half goals would be scored.
Conclusion
In short, events, such as goals can occur in clumps quite naturally. But this shouldn’t be taken as a sign that rapid rates of scoring will continue within the game or that a team has suddenly become much improved or suddenly poorer than they have previously shown.
Longer term trends are always more predictive of future events than short bursts of atypical performance.
First half goal gluts don’t on average herald a continuation of higher than normal scoring, even within the same match and Chelsea can also continue to be confident that they will remain among the dominant Premier League teams, despite the short term heroics of their FA Cup conquerors, Bradford City.
This article therefore explains to bettors the danger in drawing faulty conclusions from limited, but memorable events, such as one off results or a large number of goals in the first half.
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-art ... are-events
what the author of the above article has concluded is flawed , people are conditioned to back unders in games that have a high first half goal production without understanding the effect of the variables that occurred in the first half such as an early goal metric,
Everton
6 - 3
AFC Bournemouth View events More info
R. Lukaku 1'
1 - 0
J. McCarthy 23'
2 - 0
R. Lukaku 29'
3 - 0
3 - 1
59' J. King
3 - 2
70' J. King
R. Lukaku 83'
4 - 2
R. Lukaku 84'
5 - 2
5 - 3
90' H. Arter
R. Barkley 90'
6 - 3
early goal data would have given a signal re expectation of the late goal(s) , naturally if a model does not factor the time of the opening goal re effect on accuracy then it would have you believe that the Everton game would have not produced a landslide of goals in 2nd half
6 - 3
AFC Bournemouth View events More info
R. Lukaku 1'
1 - 0
J. McCarthy 23'
2 - 0
R. Lukaku 29'
3 - 0
3 - 1
59' J. King
3 - 2
70' J. King
R. Lukaku 83'
4 - 2
R. Lukaku 84'
5 - 2
5 - 3
90' H. Arter
R. Barkley 90'
6 - 3
early goal data would have given a signal re expectation of the late goal(s) , naturally if a model does not factor the time of the opening goal re effect on accuracy then it would have you believe that the Everton game would have not produced a landslide of goals in 2nd half