Today's Horse Racing
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ShaunWhite
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- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Pow !
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
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Naffman wrote:Santa comes only once a year, this guy comes 20x a day
I think Santa is the perfect name for him.-
SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
I have a very strong opinion on what I think will be a winner tonight at Kempton.
6.15 Kempton- Dark Destroyer. This horse has had 4 starts and it has reached a rating already of 80 which is pretty decent for maiden. The horse run against two fancied newcomers. The first is Marco Botti- In which its sibiling was already trained by him, needed to wear the headgear too. Maidens needing headgear is not usually a great sign. Only one sibling is any good. The mother ran in a group race but never won anything. The same as the John gosden new comer the mother never won anything and grandmother was no good on a racecourse. All its progeny suggest that both of these horse will get better over time.
Back onto Dark Destroyer- This horse has been ridden by J F Egan on all four starts. If I had a horse and I wanted the handicap rating down or not try to run my horseon its merits I would be calling up someone like him. He is currently banned, which is a shame as Id like to see if he was booked for this ride. If he wasnt banned and wasnt booked id be lumping on.
Anyway This horse has drifted big time in the betting at small odds on its last two starts.
Now my view is the trainer is trying to get his handicap rating down ready for the spring/summer to win a handful of races. The trainer Joesph Tuite has had two winners from four runners over the last two weeks and both winners have very simlar background stories. It is my view that because his stable is in such good form they are taking the plunge early- today is the day they are trying to win.
Thinking logically about this the horse has had many runs spread out over a year and Egan has rode it everytime- If hes banned why are they not waiting for him to ride it for lyalty? The owners a syndicate so this would also pinpoint to me that the trainer has chosen and advised a Jockey for the syndicate.
Its had one run this season, it drifted out and if you watch that race the horse pulled John Egan up with the winner of the race onto the bridle- Egan only hit the horse in the last 50yds or so. It is my view that the horse was so far inferior that he could do nothing to bury this horse (save for a rainy day) and he made a little effort to make it look like he was trying. Although it finished second they finished three lengths a head of the rest of the field- Additonally the race was a very slowly run race and Dark Destroyer was not up with the pace, shouldnt have made it in the frame. Quite astonishing this horse hasnt won a race yet and I believe its down to not trying.
Personally I would like to see money come for this later and I think it will. It is currently 4.7 and 3rd Favourtite
I think its a great bet because I truly believe today is the first day after 4 starts it is trying to win a race.
Addiotionally the horse has run at 6f 6f 1m 6f and nowtoday entered at 7f. Those who know about Horse Racing know that 7f is a very specialist distance why would you move a horse from 6f to a 1m and then back to 6f? The only logical reason to do so is to avoid its optimum distance.
6.15 Kempton- Dark Destroyer. This horse has had 4 starts and it has reached a rating already of 80 which is pretty decent for maiden. The horse run against two fancied newcomers. The first is Marco Botti- In which its sibiling was already trained by him, needed to wear the headgear too. Maidens needing headgear is not usually a great sign. Only one sibling is any good. The mother ran in a group race but never won anything. The same as the John gosden new comer the mother never won anything and grandmother was no good on a racecourse. All its progeny suggest that both of these horse will get better over time.
Back onto Dark Destroyer- This horse has been ridden by J F Egan on all four starts. If I had a horse and I wanted the handicap rating down or not try to run my horseon its merits I would be calling up someone like him. He is currently banned, which is a shame as Id like to see if he was booked for this ride. If he wasnt banned and wasnt booked id be lumping on.
Anyway This horse has drifted big time in the betting at small odds on its last two starts.
Now my view is the trainer is trying to get his handicap rating down ready for the spring/summer to win a handful of races. The trainer Joesph Tuite has had two winners from four runners over the last two weeks and both winners have very simlar background stories. It is my view that because his stable is in such good form they are taking the plunge early- today is the day they are trying to win.
Thinking logically about this the horse has had many runs spread out over a year and Egan has rode it everytime- If hes banned why are they not waiting for him to ride it for lyalty? The owners a syndicate so this would also pinpoint to me that the trainer has chosen and advised a Jockey for the syndicate.
Its had one run this season, it drifted out and if you watch that race the horse pulled John Egan up with the winner of the race onto the bridle- Egan only hit the horse in the last 50yds or so. It is my view that the horse was so far inferior that he could do nothing to bury this horse (save for a rainy day) and he made a little effort to make it look like he was trying. Although it finished second they finished three lengths a head of the rest of the field- Additonally the race was a very slowly run race and Dark Destroyer was not up with the pace, shouldnt have made it in the frame. Quite astonishing this horse hasnt won a race yet and I believe its down to not trying.
Personally I would like to see money come for this later and I think it will. It is currently 4.7 and 3rd Favourtite
I think its a great bet because I truly believe today is the first day after 4 starts it is trying to win a race.
Addiotionally the horse has run at 6f 6f 1m 6f and nowtoday entered at 7f. Those who know about Horse Racing know that 7f is a very specialist distance why would you move a horse from 6f to a 1m and then back to 6f? The only logical reason to do so is to avoid its optimum distance.
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10605
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Great stuff SHR 
On @ 4.7 out at 3.4.... my best trade of the day. Shame it wasn't for more.
On @ 4.7 out at 3.4.... my best trade of the day. Shame it wasn't for more.
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10605
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Out at 1.01 would have been even better. But that's not the game.
..I'm looking forward to your next insight already.
..I'm looking forward to your next insight already.
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ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2198
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
remember folks, there's a right-hand side to the normal distribution. but matt le blanc liked it
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Last edited by ruthlessimon on Fri Feb 03, 2017 6:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
Thanks guys. Won well didnt it.
Sometimes I just burst out a view on a race without explanantion, this is just my inital view of a market. Only take note of my descriptive selections like this one. not the ones when I say i think this horse should be odds on 3 mins before the off as thats just a genral opinion without a great deal of thought and I usually have a spare minute between trading.
Ive had two good bets over the last couple of weeks so I am happy, hoping one day i can use betfair with my betting and trading together but currently I use Betdaq as I try to divide my gambling and trading.
Sometimes I just burst out a view on a race without explanantion, this is just my inital view of a market. Only take note of my descriptive selections like this one. not the ones when I say i think this horse should be odds on 3 mins before the off as thats just a genral opinion without a great deal of thought and I usually have a spare minute between trading.
Ive had two good bets over the last couple of weeks so I am happy, hoping one day i can use betfair with my betting and trading together but currently I use Betdaq as I try to divide my gambling and trading.