Today's Horse Racing

[Halliday]

The thing SHR mentioned about the Tuite stable being in form is something I'm a great believer in .
When small stables strike form it often pays to look closely at their entries/ runners . Sometimes the "window of opportunity " is small ,but there is value in their odds.

One recent example was Johnny Portman..50/1 placed followed by 3 wins from 5 at decent odds( since had 2 upl)

1/11 Broad Appeal Kemp 8f std C5 Mitch Godwin (5) 25/1
1/7 Implausible Ling 7f std C6 R Kingscote 5/1
BD Madame Lafite Leic 20f Sft C5 Harry Cobden 7/1
1/10 Monsieur Rieussec Chfd 10f std C4 David Probert 16/1
4/8 Russian Radiance Kemp 8f std C3 Mitch Godwin (5) 10/1
3/14 Mayflair Kemp 8f std C5 Mitch Godwin (5) 50/1

Trainers are also creatures of habit and often target specific races/ race types, or hit form at certain times of the season.
A very interesting subject, and the fact that some stables are "overbet", and the form of stables ( especially the larger ones does offer trading opportunities if one digs deep enough ( and have the time !!)

[Halliday]

Peter Hedger another recent example of a small stable striking form

03/02/17 1/9 Franco's Secret Kemp 8f std C4 Tom Marquand 8/1
01/02/17 8/14 Mr Mac Kemp 8f std C6 Tom Marquand 12/1
21/01/17 1/11 Bridge Builder Ling 6f std C5 Tom Marquand 9/2
21/01/17 1/7 Franco's Secret Ling 8f std C4 Tom Marquand 7/1
18/01/17 7/9 Ruzeiz (USA) Ling 13f std C6 Tom Marquand 20/1
06/01/17 4/10 Bridge Builder Kemp 6f std C4 Tom Marquand 9/1


That's my lot for tonight !!

[SeaHorseRacing]

Completely agree with you. Dai Burchell- His horse win a three week break between runs- over chases and they dont come often but when they do all at once.

[napshnap]

I have a very strong opinion on what I think will be a winner tonight at Kempton.
6.15 Kempton- Dark Destroyer. This horse has had 4 starts and it has reached a rating already of 80 which is pretty decent for maiden. The horse run against two fancied newcomers. The first is Marco Botti- In which its sibiling was already trained by him, needed to wear the headgear too. Maidens needing headgear is not usually a great sign. Only one sibling is any good. The mother ran in a group race but never won anything. The same as the John gosden new comer the mother never won anything and grandmother was no good on a racecourse. All its progeny suggest that both of these horse will get better over time.

Back onto Dark Destroyer- This horse has been ridden by J F Egan on all four starts. If I had a horse and I wanted the handicap rating down or not try to run my horseon its merits I would be calling up someone like him. He is currently banned, which is a shame as Id like to see if he was booked for this ride. If he wasnt banned and wasnt booked id be lumping on.
Anyway This horse has drifted big time in the betting at small odds on its last two starts.

Now my view is the trainer is trying to get his handicap rating down ready for the spring/summer to win a handful of races. The trainer Joesph Tuite has had two winners from four runners over the last two weeks and both winners have very simlar background stories. It is my view that because his stable is in such good form they are taking the plunge early- today is the day they are trying to win.
Thinking logically about this the horse has had many runs spread out over a year and Egan has rode it everytime- If hes banned why are they not waiting for him to ride it for lyalty? The owners a syndicate so this would also pinpoint to me that the trainer has chosen and advised a Jockey for the syndicate.
Its had one run this season, it drifted out and if you watch that race the horse pulled John Egan up with the winner of the race onto the bridle- Egan only hit the horse in the last 50yds or so. It is my view that the horse was so far inferior that he could do nothing to bury this horse (save for a rainy day) and he made a little effort to make it look like he was trying. Although it finished second they finished three lengths a head of the rest of the field- Additonally the race was a very slowly run race and Dark Destroyer was not up with the pace, shouldnt have made it in the frame. Quite astonishing this horse hasnt won a race yet and I believe its down to not trying.

Personally I would like to see money come for this later and I think it will. It is currently 4.7 and 3rd Favourtite
I think its a great bet because I truly believe today is the first day after 4 starts it is trying to win a race.

Addiotionally the horse has run at 6f 6f 1m 6f and nowtoday entered at 7f. Those who know about Horse Racing know that 7f is a very specialist distance why would you move a horse from 6f to a 1m and then back to 6f? The only logical reason to do so is to avoid its optimum distance.

You're like Sherlock of horseracing .

[gutuami]

muss 13:30

[Dallas]

Crazy

[SeaHorseRacing]

2.00 Lingfield was a horrible race. why I traded it ill never know!

[ShaunWhite]

2.00 Lingfield was a horrible race. why I traded it ill never know!

Same here SHR....steady as she goes. Just one out of many (or that's what I keep telling myself

[SeaHorseRacing]

Day started well... seems to have gone a little flat a mintue...

[SeaHorseRacing]

Poor day for me. Nevermind.

[cyxstudio]

hello people, just a random question.

i just went to betfair historal data site to download some data from year 2017, i realise the csv file has no in play low and in play high, is that normal?

[gutuami]

http://www.betfairpromo.com/betfairsp/prices/

[SeaHorseRacing]

Wow the markets are tough today! for me anyhow!!

[SeaHorseRacing]

Unless I am missing my head this weekend.. it is officially my worse weekend ever from a edge perspectively.. Havent lost much but in context- certainly the worse. Would have done my absloloute nuts 6 months ago.

Everything I have done has gone the other way.lol

It must be more traders then gamblers in the markets in these months. You can see where a price should be going.. one ounce of it moving the other way its like everybody gets out of there position.. Must be no real money moving these markets.

[Dallas]

Lingfield Abandoned