Who is on the other side?

[Euler]

I've often wondered who is on the other side of some of my trades, but I'm pretty sure it's mainly punters. When you look at the matched bet values they are pretty small most of the time. Have a look at this trade from today.

2017-02-13 - 16-50 - Matched bets 02.png

[SeaHorseRacing]

Thats very interesting. I have always wondered that.

[LinusP]

Why would you say that? Rare for a human to bet such odd amounts, no?

[SeaHorseRacing]

When I used to bet with Betfair. If I had say £100 in my account soon as I have winner and say I have won 124.44 from my last bet its likely that my next bet maybe 4.44 odd. Also most poople are probably dragiing the remaining stake up or down a tick to get filled?

[Euler]

Why would you say that? Rare for a human to bet such odd amounts, no?

I've got some analysis somewhere of the frequency of round numbers and minimum stakes was huge. Very few big stakes. I'll have to see if I can find the spreadsheet.

[Euler]

Found it, you can see it peaks at £2, £10, £20, £50 and £100. Smaller peaks at £25 and £30

Matched bet volume by frequency.png

[LinusP]

Nice was this done manually based on orders you had in the market or the delta in the traded volume?

[Euler]

A bit of everything. When I put large orders in the market people chip away at them revealing the stake size on the other side. I also collect data on traded volume etc so while a simple chart there is a lot of work behind it. I think it's the most accurate representation I can get of the underlying market.

[giblespaul89]

Though it may not always be... matched bettors probably are a fair amount of them. It would make sense as the 'stake not returned' lay or backs for redeeming a free bet if you follow it directly from a calculator

[ShaunWhite]

6/13 on that example under £5? I'd have thought a good chunk of that must be bots.

[RentonT]

This is a great topic.

It would be interesting to see if there was difference between backs and lays as you would expect the casual punters to be backing, and also the liabilities for laying are not as round numbery.

And finally Peter how much do you think comes from the sportsbook?

[Euler]

And finally Peter how much do you think comes from the sportsbook?

Pretty much nothing comes from the sportsbook. Betfair originally said that cash out would be an exchange function, that never happened. Then that the sportsbook would drive additional volume to the exchange, never happened. Then price rush would help the exchange, but a lot of price rushes never hit the exchange now, if any. That's the unfortunate fact on how the sportsbook has evolved. It's a margin generating tool for the low hanging fruit. It's a shame Betfair's name is attached to it! The brand was built on the fairness of the exchange. Rant over.

[SeaHorseRacing]

Rant well said. If I was wealthy enough I would challenge betfair.

The name is based on their intial exchange idea.

Who remembers there intial campagain with the hurse and coffin sying it as over for the bookies?

They offer bookmaker prices and margins. IMO not too sure on the laws. I dont think the name betfair should be allowed with any form of casino or bookmaker.

Imagine if I opened an online shop called the heallthycigaratteshop.com initaly sold new iniative E-Cigarrates however 5 years down the line sarted selling tobacco. What would happen than?

Its very misleading. The betfair spoorts book should be a different site and name.

[Jukebox]

The brand was built on the fairness of the exchange.
[/quote]

It does seem like a confidence trick - with the Exchange cleverly hidden in plain sight.

When you think of the stick a supermarket gets if it mistakenly runs a multibuy 'special offer' for a few p more than if bought seperately