I looked into technical analysis in the beginning of my racing trading days, and although I do to some extent think it is useful without other indicators confirming these "patterns" they can be as good as useless.
Looking for entry's or a long term trade I find them very useful just as an indicator by them self. Especially support and resistance.
I thought a topic would be a great Idea to share some ideas.
One of my favourite indicators are the directional triangles.
Usually when there is a directional trend on a drift you can find an over extended lay. The price is generally drifting a nice smooth direction but I find the price can spike up out straight up. What usually happens is the price will come back down to roughly the same price (but directionally so not breaking the directional trend line).However, time and time again when I see this pattern the market continues to drift.
The triangle that forms I find has to not really breached lower then the previous trend. So its a kind of directional triangle. I like to see two different behaviours.. a nice looking trend then a nice spike out and back. What I love about this is the move back down moves usually quite fast so if it breaches that trend the momentum usually continues and breaks for a complete reversal. Some times they end up way extending and steaming.
When I see this trend and a spike up.. If it starts to form a triangle.. I usually get on the way back down and if it breaches the trend line i add a little more to my trade. If it stalls or suddenly slows up.. then the trend usually goes back to normal and slowly drifts again.
It happens time after time.
You can use the the length of the triangle to determine roughly how far it is likely to move and can have pretty tight stop (not stop loss though)
Post your patterns here or ideas.
Here is an example of a small triangle.
Horse Racing Technical Analysis
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SeaHorseRacing
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ShaunWhite
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Interesting SHR, I always like a bit of TA, thanks for sharing.
But....have you managed to put any numbers on 'usually' ?
We humans are suckers for latching onto patterns that are memorable, even if their occurence is less than notable.
We all have our own views, that one of the joys of it all, but I'm starting to lose faith in TA as it creates issues with my psychology. I still have some occasional issues accepting when I'm wrong (which might take months to iron out) , so I'm therefore reluctant to add more 'evidence' that my initial decision was somehow right, re-inforcing a desire to hang on to a failing position.
I obviously know there must be some reason to open, but I'm trying to strip that back to the simplest set of rules possible, almost bot-like. It seems the less involvement I have in the process of opening, the more dispassionate I am about being wrong and I manage the position much more effectively. It's just the classic case of "I don't mind that my bot fails 33% of the time, but i DO mind that I do". Caring about the outcome of an individual trade is probably the most corrosive problem I can think of and I can only shake it off when I have belief in my basic skills. Feb was pencilled in as my month for doing that but I'm only looking back at my promising oct/nov/dec stats, the feb stats aren't what you'd call confidence builder.
Sorry to hijack your TA thread with psych mate but you know I do a lot of thinking out loud, so to speak.
But....have you managed to put any numbers on 'usually' ?
We humans are suckers for latching onto patterns that are memorable, even if their occurence is less than notable.
We all have our own views, that one of the joys of it all, but I'm starting to lose faith in TA as it creates issues with my psychology. I still have some occasional issues accepting when I'm wrong (which might take months to iron out) , so I'm therefore reluctant to add more 'evidence' that my initial decision was somehow right, re-inforcing a desire to hang on to a failing position.
I obviously know there must be some reason to open, but I'm trying to strip that back to the simplest set of rules possible, almost bot-like. It seems the less involvement I have in the process of opening, the more dispassionate I am about being wrong and I manage the position much more effectively. It's just the classic case of "I don't mind that my bot fails 33% of the time, but i DO mind that I do". Caring about the outcome of an individual trade is probably the most corrosive problem I can think of and I can only shake it off when I have belief in my basic skills. Feb was pencilled in as my month for doing that but I'm only looking back at my promising oct/nov/dec stats, the feb stats aren't what you'd call confidence builder.
Sorry to hijack your TA thread with psych mate but you know I do a lot of thinking out loud, so to speak.
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SeaHorseRacing
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Shaun-
Not sure whether this will help you but it has really helped me. If you know your weaknesses that's brilliant.
What I have been doing for the last few months have been reading a card I created.
The card reads as follows:
READ THIS WITH EMOTION AFTER EVERY TRADE:
1) Don't jump straight back into the market.
2) is there enough time to place this trade.
3) Losses are part of the game. Taking a loss doesn't mean I am a loser.
I read it after every single trade I make. At first it was hard now I never not read it. I have lots of other cards for different sceneries.
One which I read twice a day. Morning and after trading.
If a large order hits the market you will close your position no matter what. This will happen and does happen. Although at the moment it may be difficult to accept this. This will keep you profitable long term.
I have a plan in place for every scenario and I rehearse it everyday.
So for example- feeling the urge to act out of Control I have a role play of cards I read every morning in which puts me in check. P
If you try this and find your struggling to stick to doing it then you know that you have weaknesses. At first I couldn't even stick to a plan reading these cards.
Which showed my poor discipline.
There was a perfect example the other day. Looking at the chart the price was smashed in and it stalled. Thinking logically it looked like it should drift. Looking at the chart I could see that it was starting to reverse and drift. However although it was drifting I could see money was still coming on the back side and the volume matched was weaker yet it still drifted out 10/15 ticks.
so I entered on the back side. The second and third fav had a very small traded range and this drift just seemed wrong. It came back and steamed massively.
It may be helpful but for me I never use technical analysis to close my position. I have a predefined stop however I always close on what the market is telling me.
Not sure whether this will help you but it has really helped me. If you know your weaknesses that's brilliant.
What I have been doing for the last few months have been reading a card I created.
The card reads as follows:
READ THIS WITH EMOTION AFTER EVERY TRADE:
1) Don't jump straight back into the market.
2) is there enough time to place this trade.
3) Losses are part of the game. Taking a loss doesn't mean I am a loser.
I read it after every single trade I make. At first it was hard now I never not read it. I have lots of other cards for different sceneries.
One which I read twice a day. Morning and after trading.
If a large order hits the market you will close your position no matter what. This will happen and does happen. Although at the moment it may be difficult to accept this. This will keep you profitable long term.
I have a plan in place for every scenario and I rehearse it everyday.
So for example- feeling the urge to act out of Control I have a role play of cards I read every morning in which puts me in check. P
If you try this and find your struggling to stick to doing it then you know that you have weaknesses. At first I couldn't even stick to a plan reading these cards.
Which showed my poor discipline.
There was a perfect example the other day. Looking at the chart the price was smashed in and it stalled. Thinking logically it looked like it should drift. Looking at the chart I could see that it was starting to reverse and drift. However although it was drifting I could see money was still coming on the back side and the volume matched was weaker yet it still drifted out 10/15 ticks.
so I entered on the back side. The second and third fav had a very small traded range and this drift just seemed wrong. It came back and steamed massively.
It may be helpful but for me I never use technical analysis to close my position. I have a predefined stop however I always close on what the market is telling me.
Be careful using the betfair graphs for your technical analysis...? Remember they x axis (time) is not represented properly on there. For instance the second half of that betfair graph you posted could be the last 3 minutes but the first half would be hours worth. Don't get me wrong i'm not saying the betfair graphs aren't useful because they are, and can indicate possible support and resistance levels and long term trends. I use them for all racing markets, but I use advanced charting too.
Anyway, you MUST use advanced charting. If you want to benefit from using technical indicators then set up some advanced charts with candlesticks etc. If you want to get really creative I believe you can use excel to create charts but I haven't seen any examples.
Anyway, you MUST use advanced charting. If you want to benefit from using technical indicators then set up some advanced charts with candlesticks etc. If you want to get really creative I believe you can use excel to create charts but I haven't seen any examples.
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ShaunWhite
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- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Thanks for the ideas, I've knocked off all my sharp edges and big cock-ups (none since november) so now I'm getting harder on myself about the flaws that still exist and strategies for those that I'll maybe always have. Another month or two and I should have removed all trace of normal human behaviour from my personality........bleepSeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Thu Feb 16, 2017 9:13 amShaun-
Not sure whether this will help you but it has really helped me.
in my opinion the best you can do for horse racing, is just replicate the betfair graph with a advanced chart - simple line graph. thats it really.
candle sticks and the others look very meaningful and clever and pretty but are pointless and more or less useless.
the pre off horse markets move to quick especially the nearer to the off, for you to look and think "i can see a double inverted camel hump, which if followed by a a camels dick means, the price will reverse, but it a double dwarfs leg which means price will rise, oh no its a treble inverted, no a monks dojo , no a , on what the feck.,.,,,," and the market suspends and goes in play, and you have no idea what the price done
keep it simple the other stuff may work in financial markets (i would not know or care).
i have not seen any evidance they are of any use in pre off horse racing markets and certainly not inplay, and have no predictive value/ability whatsoever. might make you feel better and help convince yourself you know what direction and the market will move. WILL NOT.
candle sticks and the others look very meaningful and clever and pretty but are pointless and more or less useless.
the pre off horse markets move to quick especially the nearer to the off, for you to look and think "i can see a double inverted camel hump, which if followed by a a camels dick means, the price will reverse, but it a double dwarfs leg which means price will rise, oh no its a treble inverted, no a monks dojo , no a , on what the feck.,.,,,," and the market suspends and goes in play, and you have no idea what the price done
keep it simple the other stuff may work in financial markets (i would not know or care).
i have not seen any evidance they are of any use in pre off horse racing markets and certainly not inplay, and have no predictive value/ability whatsoever. might make you feel better and help convince yourself you know what direction and the market will move. WILL NOT.
You are wrong!!! Everyone knows that "a double inverted camel hump, which if followed by a a camels dick" means the trend will continue not reverse
I think the speed of the markets doesn't matter as the candlesticks still capture the orders, anyway each to there own but they definitely help me more
But you are absolutely right they do not make me feel better. And I never ever ever ever let anything convince me into thinking I could possibly "know" what (which) direction the market will go... I mean anything can happen, all traders remember that one.
I think the speed of the markets doesn't matter as the candlesticks still capture the orders, anyway each to there own but they definitely help me more
errrrmmmm.... they definitely add value (more than standard line graph) in reading what has just happened and they improve my ability to read a market more accurately. So there
But you are absolutely right they do not make me feel better. And I never ever ever ever let anything convince me into thinking I could possibly "know" what (which) direction the market will go... I mean anything can happen, all traders remember that one.