Over/under 2.5 Goal market

[bevsy]

Hi all

Just wondering about this market if trading on unders and an early goal is scored do you trade out straight away? and if no goal before 30 minutes do u green up straight away or keep half in etc..?

any suggestions would be greatful

Regards Bevsy

[jonnyg]

I have spent the last 5 years looking at this very subject so I think I am in a position to give a detailed response > hang on >

"Just wondering about this market if trading on unders and an early goal is scored do you trade out straight away? and if no goal before 30 minutes do u green up straight away or keep half in etc..?"

If you are stupid enough to follow this approach and there is an early goal > you should take a loss immediately >


why ?


in general an early goal will result in expectation of acceleration of goal production > I have data for the early goal in a number of leagues around the globe which I have manually collated

[jonnyg]

so for example >

if we look at the Premier League 08-09 to 15-16 in games where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes

over 2.5 goals >


73% 69% 71% 69% 81% 74% 75% 76%

[jonnyg]

What I have noticed is that football data / trading is emerging because the truth is that it is in general at a very basic level < why ?

the analysts /quants > are not looking at the effect of the time of the opening goal because >

1. they dont have an interest in this area

2. they dont understand how important the effect of the time of the opening goal has on accuracy as time decays

3. they are unable to scrape the data >


I have had to manually collate all my early goal data which is rather labour intensive

[bevsy]

Thanks for the post, means a lot

[jonnyg]

i can also offer TEAM early goal data

slightly more complex < but in general you will see a quick response to the opening goal in an early goal game at a much higher % then in a game with no early goal