End of race confusion

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8ballprowler
Posts: 59
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2017 10:25 am

I've been taking great interest in the in play trader tool and how it correlates to actual race results.
The winner of each race according to the tool reaches 1.01.
Rest of horses, 2nd in running favourite for instance drift in price to let's say 40+ at the point the winner reaches 1.02-1.01.
One then checks the official result later only to discover that the winning horse only just won by a nose or short head.
How come the odds of winner and 2nd placed horse are so far apart at the post, but yet so close at the finishing post?
All explanations very welcome.
Neil.
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knome
Posts: 60
Joined: Fri Jun 17, 2016 8:48 am

In theory, a win market should give you one winner at 100% implied probability and all other entrants are losers (even by a nose) at 0% implied probability. The prices you see are just a function of the market.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 10527
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

8ballprowler wrote:
Tue Feb 21, 2017 1:57 pm
How come the odds of winner and 2nd placed horse are so far apart at the post, but yet so close at the finishing post?
Some people are just good at reading a race and how horses are doing. Even on a close race it's often pretty clear who's going to win to be honest. So when one goes short odds-on the others can only go to big prices to maintain the overround.
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2896
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

It could be a combination of trackside shrewd money and delayed players at home. I'm sure there must be bots effecting these odds.
I've seen a fair few races where the horse coming from behind looks like it can win, gets denied by a nose. I go back and check the in running prices and the second never even went as low as 10s. Must have something to do with players with a massive time advantage.
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