In the table below I have added the last 40 games in the Championship where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and the half time game state was 1-1 ;
18-12-10 <> 30% ended a draw , 1/0.3 = 9/4 +
QPR 1-1 HT > 13/8 13/10 3/1
85% ended over 2.5 goals and 50% ended over 3.5 goals
T HT FT
QPR Wigan 4 1 1 2 1
Ipswich Leeds 9 1 1 1 1
Newcastle QPR 1 1 1 2 2
Newcastle Forest 4 1 1 3 1
Hudds Bristol City 10 1 1 2 1
Ipswich Rotherham 3 1 1 2 2
Wigan Wolves 5 1 1 2 1
Forest Wigan 6 1 1 4 3
Reading Brighton 2 1 1 2 2
Dons Brentford 6 1 1 1 4
Reading Hull 4 1 1 1 2
Rotherham Hudds 10 1 1 1 1
Hull Wolves 5 1 1 2 1
Bolton Rotherham 2 1 1 2 1
Wolves Leeds 10 1 1 2 3
Burnley Sheff Wed 7 1 1 3 1
Birmingham Huddersfield 10 1 1 1 1
Ipswich Brentford 9 1 1 1 1
Brentford Huddersfield 4 1 1 4 1
Bournemouth Wolves 10 1 1 2 1
Brighton Birmingham 8 1 1 4 3
Fulham Birmingham 5 1 1 1 1
Boro Charlton 6 1 1 3 1
Birmingham Watford 2 1 1 2 1
Huddersfiled Brighton 10 1 1 1 1
Charlton Wigan 8 1 1 2 1
Charlton Yeovil 10 1 1 3 2
Leicester Sheff Wed 10 1 1 2 1
Watford Blackburn 4 1 1 3 3
Burnley Blackpool 7 1 1 2 1
Millwall Forest 8 1 1 2 2
ipswich Blackburn 4 1 1 3 1
Wolves Huddersfield 4 1 1 1 3
Millwall Sheff Wed 2 1 1 1 2
Charlton Brighton 9 1 1 2 2
Sheff Wed Bristol City 3 1 1 2 3
Sheff Wed Watford 3 1 1 1 4
Wolves Forest 5 1 1 1 2
Watord Boro 1 1 1 1 2
Bristol City Blackburn 1 1 1 3 5
The effect of the early home goal and 1-1 HT Championship
How does the time of the opening goal added to the game state ( current score ) effect accuracy as time decays ?
If you look at the QPR game last night > the odds offered re the DRAW was lower then the implied odds given the events in the first half which means that you could have " traded " the draw in the 2nd half = layed the draw as time decayed in the 2nd half > simply as 1-1 FT in this profile will be a rare event
If you look at the QPR game last night > the odds offered re the DRAW was lower then the implied odds given the events in the first half which means that you could have " traded " the draw in the 2nd half = layed the draw as time decayed in the 2nd half > simply as 1-1 FT in this profile will be a rare event
at HT I advised in the QPR game >
"in the QPR game the market algorithm does not understand that the game is 1-1 HT added to the early goal metric > all it can see is 1-1 HT which is a major flaw "
"over 3.5 should be around 4/5 with the least likely outcome being the draw > but the market has the draw as the most likely outcome "
"in the QPR game the market algorithm does not understand that the game is 1-1 HT added to the early goal metric > all it can see is 1-1 HT which is a major flaw "
"over 3.5 should be around 4/5 with the least likely outcome being the draw > but the market has the draw as the most likely outcome "
It is not that people are not interested in the time of the opening goal > they cannot work out how to collate the data easily > I have had to spend years manually collating early goal data 
and look forward to a site that can offer the data that I manually collate 
and look forward to a site that can offer the data that I manually collate