Soccer Mystic

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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sarkec
Posts: 54
Joined: Thu Sep 29, 2016 12:38 pm

Hello everyone,

Yesterday I was using Soccer Mystic on Lyon-AZ match. After the 5th goal was scored, I was looking the U7.5 goals odds and Soccer mystic showed at that moment that 1.19 is the real price for it, but at Betfair the price was 1.6, so I backed it.
My question is, how true are the Soccer Mystics predicted odds?
Can I base on it Inplay, chasing the value?

Anyway I greened up for 85 % profit, after the 6th goal was scored. The match ended 7-1.

Thanks
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jonnyg
Posts: 691
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

Yesterday I was using Soccer Mystic on Lyon-AZ match. After the 5th goal was scored, I was looking the U7.5 goals odds and Soccer mystic showed at that moment that 1.19 is the real price for it, but at Betfair the price was 1.6, so I backed it.
My question is, how true are the Soccer Mystics predicted odds?
Can I base on it Inplay, chasing the value?

Anyway I greened up for 85 % profit, after the 6th goal was scored. The match ended 7-1.


I can put you in the right direction on this one >


Olympique Lyonnais
7 - 1
AZ View events More info
N. Fekir 4'
1 - 0
M. Cornet 17'
2 - 0
2 - 1
26' L. Garcia
N. Fekir 27'
3 - 1
Sergi Darder 34'
4 - 1
N. Fekir 78'
5 - 1
H. Aouar 86'
6 - 1
M. Diakhaby 89'
7 - 1


does the " model " you use factor the time of the opening goal in terms of the effect on accuracy ?

if you look at the early goal around the globe > a goal 80(s) + is far more likely in games then where there is no early goal metric >


In the Lyon game you should have been looking to bag expectation of the late goal
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Dallas
Posts: 23550
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm

sarkec wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2017 7:06 am
Hello everyone,

Yesterday I was using Soccer Mystic on Lyon-AZ match. After the 5th goal was scored, I was looking the U7.5 goals odds and Soccer mystic showed at that moment that 1.19 is the real price for it, but at Betfair the price was 1.6, so I backed it.
My question is, how true are the Soccer Mystics predicted odds?
Can I base on it Inplay, chasing the value?

Anyway I greened up for 85 % profit, after the 6th goal was scored. The match ended 7-1.

Thanks

Soccer Mystic is modelled from the prices of several thousand historic matches, it is desgined to be a guide
so there may be a deviation in some matches but over the long term is accurate to within a few percent.
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jonnyg
Posts: 691
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

Soccer Mystic is modelled from the prices of several thousand historic matches, it is desgined to be a guide
so there may be a deviation in some matches but over the long term is accurate to within a few percent.

but it does not factor the time of the opening goal which is a crucial metric in terms of defining accuracy for the rest of the game :idea:


add that function and you have a very powerful model
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