Taunton 14:30 Lay to Back?

[JollyGreen]

I read the post about finding a loser and having replied had a quick scan of today's cards. The Taunton 14:30 caught my eye because of Tactical Manoeuvre's position as favourite. At 4.0-4.5 there is no value in the price IMHO. It has never won a race and despite some small support last time out was soundly beaten into third. It is returning to fences today after a fruitless hurdles campaign. Just a quick look at the handicap mark and I cannot see how it can win; there would need to be some big change in its well-being if today is the day. After two chase attempts it records Pulled-up and Fell as its form!

I quickly watched its two chase runs and something really stood out for me. This horse struggles to make a shape over a fence, it travels okay but if it meets a fence wrong it really struggles to adjust and handle the transition. I looked closer and it's near rear nearly does a circle at times, the horse has poor conformation and the legs rolls out to the side instead of being in-line. This could be a back injury or even a slight deformity but it could explain why it struggles with fences and cannot make the correct jump.

I am not saying lay this with your whole bank but if you lay pre-race around 4.0 - 5.0 I am sure you can get a better price in running. If you watch the race you will soon learn if it is jumping correctly or if its near rear is still flicking out to the left!

I am going for the straight lay as I know long term I will profit from this type of runner.

Good luck if you play

JG

[iambic_pentameter]

Hi JG

Thanks for this - both for the heads up but also for the detail you go into about watching the runner in a previous race.

Couple of questions:

1) What is the handicap mark?

2) When you say 'chase run' what does this mean?

Thank you

Iambic

[JollyGreen]

Hi JG

Thanks for this - both for the heads up but also for the detail you go into about watching the runner in a previous race.

Couple of questions:

1) What is the handicap mark?

2) When you say 'chase run' what does this mean?

Thank you

Iambic

The handicap mark is the level assigned to the horse by the handicapper. It basically gives an indication of ability and the weight it carries in a race is determined by it. The very top horses are rated 170-175, Thistlecarck, Vautour and the likes. This horse is rated 88!

Chase = Fences

[Dallas]

As always an exceptional post JG and i really hope your able to find the time to share some more come Cheltenham

[iambic_pentameter]

Hi JG

Thanks for the prompt reply.

I hope that you manage to get some rest today.

Cheers,

Iambic

[sotilisuz]

As always an exceptional post JG and i really hope your able to find more horse racing betting tips the time to share some more come Cheltenham

Of course, Cheltenham Festival is one of the best horse racing events

[Korattt]

so in other words it'll win , you really should frequent on here more often Mr. R, your posts really are great to read, hope all's well your end

[JollyGreen]

so in other words it'll win , you really should frequent on here more often Mr. R, your posts really are great to read, hope all's well your end

Let's hope it trades bigger in running, if it runs the usual style it will. It needs to meet every fence spot on so they have a hard job on their hands!

[SeaHorseRacing]

I had a good look too and I have been on the second favourite Skint since early today for a steamer, So I am hopeful your post helps mine come in more haha.

However I dont think it is quite as weak as you think.

Alexandra Dunne is quite shrewed. She generally likes to run her horses from the front when she has a trier. This horse has generally been held up except the last race and it was a large field of 17 runners.

IMO that is a massive form improvement last time out. Gong from held up to up with the pace (ish) in a 17 runner race and comming third.

Tactical Manoeuvre Ran promintely ish last time with a little bit of support.
On the horses 3rd start it fell but it was in front ready to jump the last and it pretty much led most of the race. So any signs of form we have had the horse has ran promnent. All poor form had been midfield and held up.

Whether this horse wins or not I cannot say but I honestly believe it will run the best it has todate. Whether it can win, I dont know as the form is hard to read from this race.

Having a look at its previous races, the horse leg flicking out is called paddling and although its not ideal. I agree it doesnt have the best confirmation, but there are lots of race horses who suffer from paddling (outward movement) and wining (inward movement) that still win races.

The more and more I look at this runner the more I think it could be a great back to lay or even a D.O.B

As its current price I actualy think the price is fairly effiecnt IMO. Looking at the chart it does look a little weak so probably will drift but I am actually really curious to see if money comes for this horse and if it doesn I think it will make the running or right up with the pace.
There isnt much pace in the race and I am under the impression that either Tactical Manoeivre or Skint will make the running.

[SeaHorseRacing]

I really hope your right though I got on Skint at odds of 5.1 So I have a lovelly trade going so far.

[JollyGreen]

Hi SHR

That's the beauty of racing, many opinions! You have added some good points.

Skint is a strange horse but if he's back to any sort of form he should go close. When you think he is 26lb below his highest winning mark it shows how frustrating he is! Scudamore could find the key to him! The top horse Zama Zama is close to his winning mark and Evan Williams seems to gaining form.

I couldn't back Tactical Manoeuvre at the price. It tried last time out and was still well beaten into 3rd. That was off 90 over hurdles and today it is off 88 over fences so I am struggling to see where the improvement is coming from. The near hind is strange and I am sure it contributes to the fence jumping. If it meets them all perfectly it may offer a clear round. I know other horses win with this conformation issue but they are few and far between over fences.

You may be correct on the front running tactics so a BTL should also work. Lots of ways to dig for gold!

Good luck with Skint

[SeaHorseRacing]

Its important to understand when I say things they sometimes may come accross not they way I intend to say it.

I am extremely grateful for the post because it made me go back and look and if I saw it earlier would have had more on Skint. I think your spot on the money and if I see a late gamble come I am going to D.O.B Tactical Maneuvre, would never back the horse to win though. If i could take odds on it to fall I would.

Good to have you back.

[SeaHorseRacing]

Looking at your opinion and mine and putting the two together. I am actually going to lay Tactical Manouvre in runing at 1.01 1.1 and 1.5 for a spare bit of change.

[Khanivore]

I read the post about finding a loser and having replied had a quick scan of today's cards. The Taunton 14:30 caught my eye because of Tactical Manoeuvre's position as favourite. At 4.0-4.5 there is no value in the price IMHO. It has never won a race and despite some small support last time out was soundly beaten into third. It is returning to fences today after a fruitless hurdles campaign. Just a quick look at the handicap mark and I cannot see how it can win; there would need to be some big change in its well-being if today is the day. After two chase attempts it records Pulled-up and Fell as its form!

That was an awesome assessment, well done Jolly. Thanks!

[Kev123in]

Watched this race and JG your write up was absolutely spot on, travelled quite well for the first circuit but chucked in a few shocking jumps and that was that, nice call.