Doubling back and surf the wave

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10GreenBottles
Posts: 9
Joined: Thu Jun 04, 2009 9:36 am

Hello BetAngel Forum,

If you're trading and it goes the other way (and looks as though it could keep going away from you) does anyone doubleback on their position instead of taking a red all over hit?

It's something I've been trying out and it does take a huge amount of focus especially if I've had to doubleback a few times on my position. Does anyone else use the same technique to avoid redding up?

I liken it to trying to surf the market as if the graph is an ocean wave and at every turn againt my position I have a wobble but doubleback on my position and steady myself.

Obviously it's impossible to doubleback forever as the bets keep doubling and a large bank would be required and an even larger market to take the huge stakes.

Just wondered if anyone had any thoughts or where I may be able to find some useful info regarding this way of trading. As nearly all the advice out there advocates redding up asap, does this gung ho way of trading have any long term benefit?

Cheers guys
10GB's
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LeTiss
Posts: 5489
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

In my experience, you need to just 'red up' ASAP and take the hit. Perhaps going back into the market to recoup, but doubling up, or letting the trade go 'in play' will eventually wipe out your bank
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10GreenBottles
Posts: 9
Joined: Thu Jun 04, 2009 9:36 am

Thanks for your reply LeTiss. Yes the strategy is a very risky to the bank and in retrospect is a crap idea to risk all for the sake of taking a one tick loss.

However, it would be good if you could somehow ride the waves, each time for each change in direction, for example:

back £100 @ 2
lay £200 @ 1.95
back £200 @ 1.99
lay £200 @ 1.92
back £200 @ 1.97
lay £100 @ 1.94
Hedge for green

I guess this sort of thing is standard technique for some, perhaps should be posting in the newbie section :oops:

So do some of you price surf like this?

Cheers
10GBs
Brent
Posts: 58
Joined: Sun May 03, 2009 2:12 am

Please excuse me for not understanding. The way I see it you are asking 1 of 2 things.
"doubleback".
Now this when I first read it, meant to me, that you reverse your position. Meaning, you double the stake of your initial bet and go the opposite way to your initial bet.
This would in fact be nothing more than redding out, and then entering another trade, and as such, the same conditions should be there to warrant you entering the trade.

Or
"doubleback" could mean that rather than red out, you in fact double your position, as the odds keep coming in backing your initial trade, by increasing the risk, waiting for it to inevitably? go the direction that you suspected?
If that is the case, I would suggest you use very low stakes. That is pretty much how I see trading a few markets. For example, the draw in Soccer, if you get the right %s, this would be a reasonable strategy. The other, is cricket, laying a team all the way down til a wicket falls.
What you essentially are doing, is getting yourself a better starting point, by increasing your stakes at the lower odds. But it does get heaps costly, and I certainly wouldn't recommend it.
The only certainty about this strategy, is you will come across a horse that just keeps getting backed in, and jumps to the front, wins, costing you bulk. A 0-0 all draw happens in soccer, about 1/12 games?, and when this happens, will cost you big. England struggle to make 111, and SAF cruise to victory without so much as a struggle, and will cost you big (2 grand. Fancy relying on the English cricket team.. :S).
So on your succesful trades, you need to make sure that they make up for your unsuccesful trades.

In looking at your second post, I will assume that you are referring to the first I suggested. Even though your second post is referring to a winning trade that would be nice for any of us here.

There are a few questions I think that most people would ask themself before entering a trade. One of them, will be is the price going up, down, or nowhere.
Now you have entered your first trade. So you have already answered, that you think the price is either going down, or will trade lower.
You backed 100@2. Now for some reason, when the price hit 1.95, you have entered a lay, to not only trade out of that, but to trade it on the way up. Now I can only assume, that the answer to the question when you traded out, was the price is going up. As I think you need to ask yourself the same question at the start of a trade, in the middle of a trade, and to end the trade.
Obviously, if you back the horse, you think it is going down. And obviously, if you lay to trade out, you no longer think the price is going down. But does that mean it is going up?

I would suggest that each time you ask yourself that question, you will never get such a consistant answer. Sometimes, it is better to simply trade out and wait for another move.
What you have suggested, would be perfect for a range trade, but then not every market creates those conditions. Some horses will simply drift. Some will shorten. Some will go up and down perfectly between 2 magic numbers. And some you can't get money on.
Take each market as it comes. But only enter a trade, if you are confident you can come out on the other side with a profit. If that means playing around with such strategies, then go for your life, as there is no better way to learn, than to do. But my recommendation, would be to keep your mind open. Adapt and succeed, or be stagnant and left behind.
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LeTiss
Posts: 5489
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

I assumed his reference to 'doubleback' was with regards to an unsuccessful trade. If he was due to lose £20 on a selection, and break even on all others, is it wise to 'red up' across the board, or let the event take place & just hope the given selection doesn't win. Perhaps I misunderstood his point
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10GreenBottles
Posts: 9
Joined: Thu Jun 04, 2009 9:36 am

Wow, what a great answer Brent. Thanks very much for your time and explaining your thoughts there, very interesting. I was talking about two different situations yes sorry to confuse, one where instead of taking a loss doubling the stakes the other direction to keep doubling on each direction change until catch it right and get back in the green. The second situation I meant was to use that method when in a resistance 'tunnel' when it's seems as though the price is going bounce up and down - instead of closing and then reopening the position, I was just asking if anyone surfs the movement by just doubling the stake when reversing their position which in effect is the same thing but with only one click.

Can graph anaysis and practise lead you to a state of mind whereby you are at one with the movements/graph/price and you can flow with it?

Currently, I'm learning what the fundamentals are of pre-race horse trading. I had previously been led to beleive that charting and graphs hold no indications of where the price will go however, after looking at Jimmakos's betting blog (recommended in another thread) the articles on technical analysis have opened my eyes up to relying more on charts and the BF graph rather than believing that every psotition opened is a 'coin-flip' situation.
Having a reason (through analysis) to believe which way a big move will go is far more rewarding than assuming it's a 50/50. If anyone can direct me to more examples of BF graph analysis I'd really appreciate that as I have googled and googled.


Thanks Brent and LeTiss 4pm once again.

Cheers
10GBs
aligammack
Posts: 104
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 2:49 pm

As I come from a financial background most of my knowledge about technical analysis comes from financial markets. This knowledge can be very easy transferred to betting exchange trading.

I would therefore recommend the website www.investopedia.com that has lots of articles about different technical analysis such as how to use candlesticks, patterm formations, bollinger bands etc.

The past can definitely give you an insight to the future.
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10GreenBottles
Posts: 9
Joined: Thu Jun 04, 2009 9:36 am

Many thanks aligammack, perfect advice. There is tonnes of info on this website. Crikey o'blimey I've got a lot of reading to do now.

Thanks again.

10GBs
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