Naffman
Thanks.
I also hope for better things for the Tigers.
Systems, systems, there were never ...
rock and hard place
Last edited by jimibt on Wed Mar 08, 2017 8:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Anna, it does sound like you're having a hard time believing what you've found to be possible. Like some previous posts have alluded to, the best idea is simply to put a little bit of money on it, and you'll soon find out either way. If you make money then great, if you don't, then consider it the cost of confirming that. Like many businesses, you often have to spend a bit of money (or in some cases a lot!) up front doing research and verifying that the market is there and the business is viable. Consider your initial investment (which you should be prepared to lose) a similar thing. If you have done enough research then you should feel confident that this is a cost worth risking. No risk, no return! This doesn't mean you need to risk much though. The minimum bet on Betfair is £2, on Betdaq it's 50p I believe.
In answer to your question. There is no fundamental reason why systematic betting strategies should not exist (unless it's purely based on a staking method as already mentioned in earlier posts). In fact many of us on this forum use systematic betting systems with success. That doesn't mean all systems will work, nor that it is easy to find a system, nor even that a system that does work will work forever.
What you need is to:
1. Develop a plan. (e.g. How much am I going to stake? What size bank will I use? What's the maximum loss I will take before I'm pulling the plug? How am I going to determine if my strategy isn't working anymore if it initially is?)
2. Be happy with your reasoning about your plan. (e.g. Why have I chosen the stake and bank that I have? Why is my exit strategy what I have decided?)
3. Stick to the plan! If you have done 2 properly, then you should be happy with your plan, and will have no reason to divert from it. (e.g. If you hit your maximum loss then stop your system as planned). There's no reason why you can't go back to paper trading, but put that in your plan! e.g. After I lose X amount, I'll stop with real money and go back to paper trading.
As you mentioned earlier, there are a few reasons why a strategy might work on paper but not in real life, but assuming you've done as much research as you can, which it seems you have, you can't really know until you try it. And this is why you have a plan. It's the same as manual trading - have an exit strategy, don't go in-play, don't chase losses, etc... People often say that one benefit of having a "system" is that it's completely emotionless and won't trade badly after a loss - not 100% true. Systems can lose money, and when they do you need to decide what to do next - that part is discretionary again. Have a plan for that eventuality and it'll be easier to deal with if it happens.
Planning for the worst isn't the same as expecting the worst though. There's a good chance that the worst won't happen, so good luck!
In answer to your question. There is no fundamental reason why systematic betting strategies should not exist (unless it's purely based on a staking method as already mentioned in earlier posts). In fact many of us on this forum use systematic betting systems with success. That doesn't mean all systems will work, nor that it is easy to find a system, nor even that a system that does work will work forever.
What you need is to:
1. Develop a plan. (e.g. How much am I going to stake? What size bank will I use? What's the maximum loss I will take before I'm pulling the plug? How am I going to determine if my strategy isn't working anymore if it initially is?)
2. Be happy with your reasoning about your plan. (e.g. Why have I chosen the stake and bank that I have? Why is my exit strategy what I have decided?)
3. Stick to the plan! If you have done 2 properly, then you should be happy with your plan, and will have no reason to divert from it. (e.g. If you hit your maximum loss then stop your system as planned). There's no reason why you can't go back to paper trading, but put that in your plan! e.g. After I lose X amount, I'll stop with real money and go back to paper trading.
As you mentioned earlier, there are a few reasons why a strategy might work on paper but not in real life, but assuming you've done as much research as you can, which it seems you have, you can't really know until you try it. And this is why you have a plan. It's the same as manual trading - have an exit strategy, don't go in-play, don't chase losses, etc... People often say that one benefit of having a "system" is that it's completely emotionless and won't trade badly after a loss - not 100% true. Systems can lose money, and when they do you need to decide what to do next - that part is discretionary again. Have a plan for that eventuality and it'll be easier to deal with if it happens.
Planning for the worst isn't the same as expecting the worst though. There's a good chance that the worst won't happen, so good luck!
Yes systems can deliver profits if filtered correctly and used in a disciplined wayAnna List wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:45 pmA few moons ago, I came up with an idea for a system. Its nature was such that I needed to post the selections on a forum in order to test it. I would rather not explain why.
I joined a forum and began posting. It's a great pity that I didn't post on this forum but sadly I was unaware of it.
I was taken aback by the reception that I received from the forum members. I didn't need to be welcomed with open arms but I didn't expect the open hostility either. Tien.
As far as I was able to determine, many of the forum members were of the opinion that systems didn't work - mainly because they 'knew people' who had lost money using systems.
I'd be interested to hear what the members of this forum think about systems. Are you of a similar opinion to the members of "the other forum" in that systems don't work or do you feel that there are systems that can deliver a long-term profit.
If you want to test strategies and systems them Proform with its system builder and database Is an excellent tool to use , although it isn't cheap .
Some examples of systems which if filtered correctly that work are
1 laying horses drawn in stall 1 at Southwell in races over 7f or more ( subject to criteria regarding odds , size of field , type if race etc .
2 This is an odd one and requires knowledge of trainer profiles etc and assessing quality of a trainers horse and the level of form of a stable over previous seasons ... In 2013/ 2014 Johnathon Portman had some huge priced placed horses making their debut but no winners
From Jan 1st 2015 up until now . He had 50 debut runners ... and 5 winners at odds of 66/1, 33/1, 25/1, 25/1 and 20/1 producing a level stakes profit of 124 points !!
Will it continue into 2017 or has it had its shelf life ? . Who knows
3 A certain trainers 3yo stepped up in distance running in handicaps for the first time at a certain time of the year when the WFA is generous for 3yo . Again not many qualifiers but 8 winners from 11 runners over past 7 seasons
4 American bred horses which are making there debut for a certain trainer after having changed yards and running at a specific racecourse in a class 5 / 6 handicaps . This system has provided a decent level stakes profit for the last 9 seasons . But has few qualifiers ( less than 20)
Most systems if based on trainers , draw , etc have a limited shelf life and need to be checked and tweaked of just dumped because certain factors have changed
At the end of the day . it's a lot if effort and sometimes months without a qualifier .. compared to trading every day. And hopefully a steady profit
Ada Lovelace - genius, look her up on Wikipedia.
"The gambling led to her forming a syndicate with male friends, and an ambitious attempt in 1851 to create a mathematical model for successful large bets. This went disastrously wrong, leaving her thousands of pounds in debt to the syndicate, forcing her to admit it all to her husband." (Wikipedia)
She invented software!
Systems have been around for Centuries.
Hence the cynicism. It's nothing personal except for the usual trolls you get on any forum.
Good luck with your system.
"The gambling led to her forming a syndicate with male friends, and an ambitious attempt in 1851 to create a mathematical model for successful large bets. This went disastrously wrong, leaving her thousands of pounds in debt to the syndicate, forcing her to admit it all to her husband." (Wikipedia)
She invented software!
Systems have been around for Centuries.
Hence the cynicism. It's nothing personal except for the usual trolls you get on any forum.
Good luck with your system.
And more importantly a game sprinter for J Gallagher.. 5 times a winner .. won at Chelmsford last year .. not in training this year . So hopefully the mare has been covered and we can expect to see her foals on a racecourse soon !!kerberus wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:06 pmAda Lovelace - genius, look her up on Wikipedia.
"The gambling led to her forming a syndicate with male friends, and an ambitious attempt in 1851 to create a mathematical model for successful large bets. This went disastrously wrong, leaving her thousands of pounds in debt to the syndicate, forcing her to admit it all to her husband." (Wikipedia)
She invented software!
Systems have been around for Centuries.
Hence the cynicism. It's nothing personal except for the usual trolls you get on any forum.
Good luck with your system.
Xitianxitian wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2017 8:31 pmAnna, it does sound like you're having a hard time believing what you've found to be possible. Like some previous posts have alluded to, the best idea is simply to put a little bit of money on it, and you'll soon find out either way. If you make money then great, if you don't, then consider it the cost of confirming that. Like many businesses, you often have to spend a bit of money (or in some cases a lot!) up front doing research and verifying that the market is there and the business is viable. Consider your initial investment (which you should be prepared to lose) a similar thing. If you have done enough research then you should feel confident that this is a cost worth risking. No risk, no return! This doesn't mean you need to risk much though. The minimum bet on Betfair is £2, on Betdaq it's 50p I believe.
In answer to your question. There is no fundamental reason why systematic betting strategies should not exist (unless it's purely based on a staking method as already mentioned in earlier posts). In fact many of us on this forum use systematic betting systems with success. That doesn't mean all systems will work, nor that it is easy to find a system, nor even that a system that does work will work forever.
What you need is to:
1. Develop a plan. (e.g. How much am I going to stake? What size bank will I use? What's the maximum loss I will take before I'm pulling the plug? How am I going to determine if my strategy isn't working anymore if it initially is?)
2. Be happy with your reasoning about your plan. (e.g. Why have I chosen the stake and bank that I have? Why is my exit strategy what I have decided?)
3. Stick to the plan! If you have done 2 properly, then you should be happy with your plan, and will have no reason to divert from it. (e.g. If you hit your maximum loss then stop your system as planned). There's no reason why you can't go back to paper trading, but put that in your plan! e.g. After I lose X amount, I'll stop with real money and go back to paper trading.
As you mentioned earlier, there are a few reasons why a strategy might work on paper but not in real life, but assuming you've done as much research as you can, which it seems you have, you can't really know until you try it. And this is why you have a plan. It's the same as manual trading - have an exit strategy, don't go in-play, don't chase losses, etc... People often say that one benefit of having a "system" is that it's completely emotionless and won't trade badly after a loss - not 100% true. Systems can lose money, and when they do you need to decide what to do next - that part is discretionary again. Have a plan for that eventuality and it'll be easier to deal with if it happens.
Planning for the worst isn't the same as expecting the worst though. There's a good chance that the worst won't happen, so good luck!
Thanks for your excellent post.
I am having issues believing what I have found. When the members of the other forum stated that systems did not produce long-term profits, it increased my doubts about the system. Now that you guys have dispelled my doubts, I can move on.
Have a look at this PW blog about the wonders of strategies (aka systems)
https://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2013/1 ... ou-use-it/
Also a video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-i3fSkT9LI
Lots of interesting points
https://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2013/1 ... ou-use-it/
Also a video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-i3fSkT9LI
Lots of interesting points
Kerberuskerberus wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:06 pmAda Lovelace - genius, look her up on Wikipedia.
"The gambling led to her forming a syndicate with male friends, and an ambitious attempt in 1851 to create a mathematical model for successful large bets. This went disastrously wrong, leaving her thousands of pounds in debt to the syndicate, forcing her to admit it all to her husband." (Wikipedia)
She invented software!
Systems have been around for Centuries.
Hence the cynicism. It's nothing personal except for the usual trolls you get on any forum.
Good luck with your system.
Just read about Ada Lovelace. Interesting.
Thanks for your comments.
Anna List wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:20 pmKerberuskerberus wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2017 9:06 pmAda Lovelace - genius, look her up on Wikipedia.
"The gambling led to her forming a syndicate with male friends, and an ambitious attempt in 1851 to create a mathematical model for successful large bets. This went disastrously wrong, leaving her thousands of pounds in debt to the syndicate, forcing her to admit it all to her husband." (Wikipedia)
She invented software!
Systems have been around for Centuries.
Hence the cynicism. It's nothing personal except for the usual trolls you get on any forum.
Good luck with your system.
Just read about Ada Lovelace. Interesting.
Thanks for your comments.
Programme on BBC 4 next Tuesday 1 hour programme
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p030s5bx
Ada Lovelace was a most unlikely computer pioneer. In this film, Dr Hannah Fry tells the story of Ada's remarkable life. Born in the early 19th century, Ada was a countess of the realm, a scandalous socialite and an 'enchantress of numbers'. The film is an enthralling tale of how a life infused with brilliance, but blighted by illness and gambling addiction, helped give rise to the modern era of computing.
Hannah traces Ada's unlikely union with the father of computers, Charles Babbage. Babbage designed the world's first steam-powered computers - most famously the analytical engine - but it was Ada who realised the full potential of these new machines. During her own lifetime, Ada was most famous for being the daughter of romantic poet Lord Byron ('mad, bad and dangerous to know'). It was only with the advent of modern computing that Ada's understanding of their flexibility and power (that they could be far more than mere number crunchers) was recognised as truly visionary. Hannah explores how Ada's unique inheritance - poetic imagination and rational logic - made her the ideal prophet of the digital age.
This moving, intelligent and beautiful film makes you realise we nearly had a Victorian computer revolution.
Foxwoodfoxwood wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:07 pmHave a look at this PW blog about the wonders of strategies (aka systems)
https://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2013/1 ... ou-use-it/
Also a video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-i3fSkT9LI
Lots of interesting points
Thanks for your post - just finished reading and watching the vid.
As you say, lots of interesting points.
I've only ever bought one system in my life (a football CS system that I still use today) and that was because the creator kept detailed records of 4,000+ trades that he did using his system over a period of 2.5 years IIRC to prove that his system does make money. There were like 25+ PDF pages of results so that made me purchase it.
I'll never buy any system without such proofs.
Thanks for this Halliday. Will be watching with interest.Halliday wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:34 pm
Programme on BBC 4 next Tuesday 1 hour programme
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p030s5bx
Ada Lovelace was a most unlikely computer pioneer. In this film, Dr Hannah Fry tells the story of Ada's remarkable life. Born in the early 19th century, Ada was a countess of the realm, a scandalous socialite and an 'enchantress of numbers'. The film is an enthralling tale of how a life infused with brilliance, but blighted by illness and gambling addiction, helped give rise to the modern era of computing.
Hannah traces Ada's unlikely union with the father of computers, Charles Babbage. Babbage designed the world's first steam-powered computers - most famously the analytical engine - but it was Ada who realised the full potential of these new machines. During her own lifetime, Ada was most famous for being the daughter of romantic poet Lord Byron ('mad, bad and dangerous to know'). It was only with the advent of modern computing that Ada's understanding of their flexibility and power (that they could be far more than mere number crunchers) was recognised as truly visionary. Hannah explores how Ada's unique inheritance - poetic imagination and rational logic - made her the ideal prophet of the digital age.
This moving, intelligent and beautiful film makes you realise we nearly had a Victorian computer revolution.
would this per-chance be one of the systems from mr john duncan?? both the systems (that i've seen) from him have a great depth of knowledge and empirical proof provided. trialed both the fcg and asp and found that with well filtered matches, both worked well. so yes, systems can and do work, but require an almost fanatical attention to detail and adherence to the plan!!neld0r wrote: ↑Thu Mar 09, 2017 1:36 am
I've only ever bought one system in my life (a football CS system that I still use today) and that was because the creator kept detailed records of 4,000+ trades that he did using his system over a period of 2.5 years IIRC to prove that his system does make money. There were like 25+ PDF pages of results so that made me purchase it.
I'll never buy any system without such proofs.