in the table below I have added the last 80 games in Portugal Segunda where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band and the half time game state was 0-1 and 53.75% ended over 2.5 goals , 1/0.5375 = 1.86
At half time in the last 2 games that fit the profile , the offer for over 2.5 was 2.5 and 2.625
GAME PATHWAY
16/80 0-1 FT
> 0-2 <> 25/80 <> 0-2-23 <> away teams won 92%
> 1-1 <> 39/80 <> 15-18-6 <> away teams won 15%
15-20-45 <> away teams won 56% < some expectation of the home team fighting back in the second half
The away teams won the 2nd half of the games in the table below in only 21%
44% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
in the games in the table below where the home team went to 1-1 pathway in the 46-70 minutes time band > 2-2 2-2 3-2 2-3 1-2 2-1 1-1 2-2 1-1 1-1 2-2 1-2 3-1 1-1 1-1 2-3 1-2 3-1 2-2 1-1 4-1 1-1 2-1 2-1 1-1 2-1 2-2 1-1 2-4 1-1, 67% ended over 2.5 goals
T T+1 HT FT Goal 80 +
Fam Covilhã 19 H67 0 1 2 2 90
Fafe Madeira 19 A63 0 1 1 2 90
Leixões Vitória 6 H75 0 1 2 1 90
Olh Porto 13 H59 0 1 2 2 80
Aca Penafiel 12 H50 0 1 3 2
Covilhã Penafiel 7 H66 0 1 2 3 90
CP Braga 13 H70 0 1 1 2 80
Varzim Fafe 6 H69 0 1 2 1
Vizela Vitoria 15 H52 0 1 1 1
Aca Olh 9 0 1 0 1
Varzim Madeira 8 H73 0 1 2 1 85
Gil Port 12 0 1 0 1
Olh CP 6 H58 1 1 2 2 8390
Vitoria Leixões 13 H79 0 1 2 1 90
Fafe Santa 15 A54 0 1 0 2
Olh Fafe 5 A59 0 1 2 3 8689
Aca Santa 5 0 1 0 1
Vitoria Aves 8 H47 0 1 1 1
Pen Fam 4 H59 0 1 1 1
Fam CP 13 A53 0 1 2 2
Leixões Olh 15 A81 0 1 0 2 81
Lisboa Varzim 15 A90 0 1 0 2 90
Vitoria Covilhã 15 H80 0 1 1 1 80
Mafra Chaves 19 0 1 0 1
Leixões Fream 18 A63 0 1 0 2
Olh Mafra 16 H90 0 1 2 1 9090
Pen Santa 7 H72 0 1 2 1 84
Fam Port 8 H71 0 1 1 1
Braga Varzim 1 A51 0 1 0 2
Braga Leixões 12 0 1 0 1
Porto Aves 19 0 1 0 1
Feirense Port 3 H72 0 1 2 1 88
Gil Santa 16 H63 0 1 2 2 90
Oliv Benfica 9 H51 0 1 1 2
Leixões Varzim 20 A56 0 1 0 4 83
CP Leixões 17 0 1 0 1
Fream Olh 3 H54 0 1 3 1 82
Varzim Braga 5 H54 0 1 1 1
Fream Feir 9 H46 0 1 1 1
Braga Penafiel 10 0 1 0 1
Braga Port 5 H51 0 1 2 3 87
Aca CP 10 0 1 0 1
Far Port 7 H49 0 1 1 2
Oriental Aves 16 A83 0 1 0 2
Porto II Penafiel 15 H47 0 1 3 1 88
Gil Port 16 H52 0 1 2 2 80
Gil Fam 7 H50 0 1 1 1
Santa Porto 2 8 A65 0 1 1 2
Oliveirense Oriental 20 A53 0 1 0 3 86
Oriental Madeira 9 A71 0 1 0 3 86
Farense Feirense 10 H46 0 1 4 1
Vitoria Braga 16 H58 0 1 1 1
União Covilhã 5 H61 0 1 2 1
Tondela Aves 15 A58 0 1 0 3
Braga 2 Covilhã 18 A67 0 1 1 2 81
Olhanense Braga 18 0 1 0 1
Trofense Farense 6 0 1 0 1
Olhanense Benfica 2 10 A68 0 1 1 2 86
Trofense Beira-Mar 16 A63 0 1 0 3 86
Braga 2 Madeira 11 A75 0 1 0 3 87
União Tondela 12 A73 0 1 1 2 90
Trofense Leixões 3 A65 0 1 0 2
Porto II Farense 9 H59 0 1 2 1
Porto II Sporting CP 16 0 1 0 1
União Aves 14 H54 0 1 1 1
Santa Sporting CP 15 0 1 0 1
Freamunde Viseu 20 A58 0 1 1 3 81
Leixões Olhanense 13 H82 0 1 2 1 8285
Marítimo II Aves 12 A90 0 1 0 2 90
Trofense Aves 17 A78 0 1 2 2 9090
Sporting CP Benfica 2 3 0 1 0 1
Feirense Santa 14 H56 0 1 2 1 90
União Farense 9 A75 0 1 0 2
Braga 2 Porto 2 4 H56 0 1 2 2
Chaves Olhanense 15 H58 0 1 1 1
Beira Oliveirense 20 H50 0 1 2 4 8190
Visu Feirense 13 0 1 0 1
Farense Chaves 8 0 1 0 1
Port Santa 11 H55 0 1 1 1
Chaves Madeira 2 A59 0 1 0 3
if you look at 0-1 HT goal 21-HT Portugal Segunda you are looking at around 30% expectation of over 2.5 goals which you can exploit because the betting industry in play algorithm when it was built did not factor the effect of the time of the opening goal on accuracy
