The Effect of the 2nd Half Away Fight Back Metric in La Liga in games that are 1-0 at Half Time to the Home Team
Posted on: March 12th, 2017 by Jonny Grossmark
In the table below I have added the last 68 games in La Liga where the home team was winning 1-0 half time game state added to the 2nd half away fightback ( 1-1 ) with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minutes time band and 71% ended over 2,5 goals , 1/0.71 = 2/5
27-24-17 > the away teams won 25%< did you back Barca at 1-1 at 8/15 ? ( ouch )
T T+1 T+2 T+3 FT
Deportivo Barca 40 46 74 2 1
Deportivo AM 13 68 1 1
Malaga Betis 39 48 74 1 2
Betis Sevilla 36 56 76 1 2
Las Palmas Deportivo 13 69 1 1
Alaves Las Palmas 4 57 1 1
Deportivo Valencia 45 56 1 1
Deportivo Gijon 35 65 90 2 1
Bilbao Sevilla 26 55 66 90 3 1
Deportivo Leganes 31 55 61 1 2
Barca AM 41 61 1 1
Celta Granada 16 69 76 2 1
Las Palmas Sporting 3 48 1 1
Deportivo Levante 43 50 85 2 1
Espanyol Rayo 12 67 77 2 1
Gijon Getafe 16 69 71 1 2
Bilbao Las Palmas 17 62 66 81 2 2
RM Sociedad 42 49 67 86 3 1
Rayo Malaga 6 59 87 1 2
Celta Gijon 15 66 84 2 1
Valencia Las Palmas 8 57 1 1
Bilbao Espanyol 8 51 64 2 1
Gijon Betis 17 46 57 1 2
Celta Deportivo 3 55 72 2 1
Espanyol Malaga 16 53 88 93 2 2
Atletico Cordoba 44 53 58 62 4 2
Levante Almeria 26 70 75 2 1
Barcelona Sevilla 21 47 49 65 5 1
Espanyol Granada 34 61 90 2 1
Sociedad Bilbao 3 61 1 1
Eiche Malaga 45 49 77 1 2
Bilbao Atl.Madrid 17 46 53 73 1 4
Cordoba Almeria 10 61 66 1 2
Getafe Sevilla 29 66 85 2 1
Malaga Getafe 10 55 57 68 3 2
Granada Sevilla 16 69 1 1
Rayo Valencia 19 66 1 1
Barcelona Atl.Madrid 34 49 1 1
Espanyol Almeria 42 69 72 1 2
Valencia Bilbao 23 53 1 1
Malaga Sevilla 31 49 66 77 3 2
Bilbao Rayo 32 61 66 2 1
Barcelona Villarreal 30 48 68 2 1
Betis Rayo 27 51 81 91 2 2
Espanyol Sociedad 31 69 88 1 2
Malaga Bilbao 38 69 85 1 2
Getafe Eiche 18 61 1 1
Valencia Almeria 33 62 70 1 2
Eiche Espanyol 40 66 74 2 1
Valencia Sevilla 32 52 73 82 3 1
Celta Granada 29 62 1 1
Almeria Villarreal 39 65 74 83 2 3
Espanyol Real Madrid 23 58 1 1
Valladolid Sevilla 41 62 1 1
Bilbao Barcelona 27 67 69 90 2 2
Espanyol Valencia 45 53 82 87 3 3
Sevilla Bilbao 5 55 87 2 1
Valladolid Osasuna 11 50 60 69 1 3
Granada Levante 32 50 1 1
Mallorca Sevilla 16 61 66 2 1
Granada Barcelona 26 50 73 1 2
Sevilla Rayo 45 51 54 2 1
Espanyol Levante 42 47 67 69 3 2
Celta Sociedad 32 59 1 1
Sociedad Sevilla 18 49 69 2 1
Bilbao Deportivo 24 52 1 1
Malaga Levante 27 46 59 93 3 1
Espanyol Zaragoza 43 51 89 1 2
1-0 HT to the home team La Liga > 1-1 with 2nd goal in 46-70 minutes = effect of the 2nd half fightback metric
What I have done is look at the " 2nd half fightback metric " which I define as 1-0/0-1 HT with the 2nd goal > 1-1 in the 46-70 minutes time band to calculate expectation of
1. accuracy for the rest of the game > in that individual league
2. to define if there is draw expectation or not at 1-1
this is a great in play metric which has still to be discovered by the mainstream
1. accuracy for the rest of the game > in that individual league
2. to define if there is draw expectation or not at 1-1
this is a great in play metric which has still to be discovered by the mainstream
Posted on: November 28th, 2016 by Jonny Grossmark
“In this masterwork Pullein explains how you can work out what is likely to happen …. Kevin Pullein is the leading football commentator for the Racing Post. … for instance, a team which is losing by 0-1 is 6% more likely to score the next goal …”
In the table below I have added all the games since 2012-2013 in the Premier League where the home teams were winning 1-0 at half time with the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band, the home teams scored the second goal of the game in 49%, no second goal in 16% and the away teams scored the second goal in 35%
Game Pathway
Game pathway is simply the current score and in games in the Premier League that are 1-0 at half time to the home team added to the early home goal metric ( goal in the 0-10 minutes time band ) , expectation that the game will not go to the 1-1 pathway with a goal in the 46-70 minutes time band and if that does happen then high expectation that the game will not end 1-1.
In the table below 13 games (25% ) followed the pathway 1-1 with a goal in the 46-70 minutes time band and 1/13 ended 1-1.
38-9-4 <> the home teams won 74.5% , 1/0.745 = 1.34
53% ended over 2.5 goals
Trading Strategy
In games in the Premier League that are 1-0 at half time to the home team added to the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band ;
1. At half time LAY ( Back against 1-1 correct score )
2. If the game is still 1-0 on 69 minutes then close the trade by backing 1-1 with the aim of avoiding any late goals by the away team.
South Everton 1 1 0 1 0
Swansea Liverpool 8 1 0 1 2 A54
Man City Sunderland 4 1 0 2 1 A71
Everton Spurs 5 1 0 1 1 A59
West Ham Man UTD 10 1 0 3 2 A51
Man UTD Palace 4 1 0 2 0
West Ham Spurs 7 1 0 1 0
Southampton WHU 9 1 0 1 0
Bournemouth Norwich 10 1 0 3 0
WHU Liverpool 10 1 0 2 0
Swansea WBA 9 1 0 1 0
Liverpool Villa 2 1 0 3 2 H59
WHU Newcastle 9 1 0 2 0
Swansea Newcastle 9 1 0 2 0
WBA Chelsea 9 1 0 3 0
Man City Villa 3 1 0 3 2 H66
Liverpool Newcastle 9 1 0 2 0
WHU Stoke 7 1 0 1 1 A90
WBA Southamp. 2 1 0 1 0
Arsenal Villa 8 1 0 5 0
Chelsea Hull 7 1 0 2 0
Hull Spurs 8 1 0 1 2 A61
WBA Man UTD 8 1 0 2 2 A48
West Ham QPR 5 1 0 2 0
Chelsea Villa 7 1 0 3 0
Man City Sunderland 2 1 0 2 2 A73
Southampton Norwich 5 1 0 4 2 H57
Swansea WBA 2 1 0 1 2 A52
Man UTD Cardiff 6 1 0 2 0
Everton Southampton 9 1 0 2 1 A71
Cardiff Sunderland 6 1 0 2 2 H58
Palace Cardiff 6 1 0 2 0
Arsenal Hull 2 1 0 2 0
City Swansea 8 1 0 3 0
Sunderland Newcastle 5 1 0 2 1 A57
Sunderland Man UTD 5 1 0 1 2 A61
Liverpool Man UTD 4 1 0 1 0
Palace Sunderland 9 1 0 3 1 A64
Everton West Ham 6 1 0 2 0
Arsenal Villa 6 1 0 2 1 A68
Fulham West Ham 10 1 0 3 1 A48
Man City Fulham 2 1 0 2 0
Reading West Ham 5 1 0 1 0
Man UTD West Brom 9 1 0 2 0
Fulham Southampton 8 1 0 1 1 A85
Man UTD West Ham 1 1 0 1 0
Fulham Everton 7 1 0 2 2 A55
Man UTD Arsenal 3 1 0 2 1 H67
Wigan West Ham 8 1 0 2 1 H47
Southampton Fulham 4 1 0 2 2 A70
Man City Sunderland 5 1 0 3 0
“In this masterwork Pullein explains how you can work out what is likely to happen …. Kevin Pullein is the leading football commentator for the Racing Post. … for instance, a team which is losing by 0-1 is 6% more likely to score the next goal …”
In the table below I have added all the games since 2012-2013 in the Premier League where the home teams were winning 1-0 at half time with the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band, the home teams scored the second goal of the game in 49%, no second goal in 16% and the away teams scored the second goal in 35%
Game Pathway
Game pathway is simply the current score and in games in the Premier League that are 1-0 at half time to the home team added to the early home goal metric ( goal in the 0-10 minutes time band ) , expectation that the game will not go to the 1-1 pathway with a goal in the 46-70 minutes time band and if that does happen then high expectation that the game will not end 1-1.
In the table below 13 games (25% ) followed the pathway 1-1 with a goal in the 46-70 minutes time band and 1/13 ended 1-1.
38-9-4 <> the home teams won 74.5% , 1/0.745 = 1.34
53% ended over 2.5 goals
Trading Strategy
In games in the Premier League that are 1-0 at half time to the home team added to the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band ;
1. At half time LAY ( Back against 1-1 correct score )
2. If the game is still 1-0 on 69 minutes then close the trade by backing 1-1 with the aim of avoiding any late goals by the away team.
South Everton 1 1 0 1 0
Swansea Liverpool 8 1 0 1 2 A54
Man City Sunderland 4 1 0 2 1 A71
Everton Spurs 5 1 0 1 1 A59
West Ham Man UTD 10 1 0 3 2 A51
Man UTD Palace 4 1 0 2 0
West Ham Spurs 7 1 0 1 0
Southampton WHU 9 1 0 1 0
Bournemouth Norwich 10 1 0 3 0
WHU Liverpool 10 1 0 2 0
Swansea WBA 9 1 0 1 0
Liverpool Villa 2 1 0 3 2 H59
WHU Newcastle 9 1 0 2 0
Swansea Newcastle 9 1 0 2 0
WBA Chelsea 9 1 0 3 0
Man City Villa 3 1 0 3 2 H66
Liverpool Newcastle 9 1 0 2 0
WHU Stoke 7 1 0 1 1 A90
WBA Southamp. 2 1 0 1 0
Arsenal Villa 8 1 0 5 0
Chelsea Hull 7 1 0 2 0
Hull Spurs 8 1 0 1 2 A61
WBA Man UTD 8 1 0 2 2 A48
West Ham QPR 5 1 0 2 0
Chelsea Villa 7 1 0 3 0
Man City Sunderland 2 1 0 2 2 A73
Southampton Norwich 5 1 0 4 2 H57
Swansea WBA 2 1 0 1 2 A52
Man UTD Cardiff 6 1 0 2 0
Everton Southampton 9 1 0 2 1 A71
Cardiff Sunderland 6 1 0 2 2 H58
Palace Cardiff 6 1 0 2 0
Arsenal Hull 2 1 0 2 0
City Swansea 8 1 0 3 0
Sunderland Newcastle 5 1 0 2 1 A57
Sunderland Man UTD 5 1 0 1 2 A61
Liverpool Man UTD 4 1 0 1 0
Palace Sunderland 9 1 0 3 1 A64
Everton West Ham 6 1 0 2 0
Arsenal Villa 6 1 0 2 1 A68
Fulham West Ham 10 1 0 3 1 A48
Man City Fulham 2 1 0 2 0
Reading West Ham 5 1 0 1 0
Man UTD West Brom 9 1 0 2 0
Fulham Southampton 8 1 0 1 1 A85
Man UTD West Ham 1 1 0 1 0
Fulham Everton 7 1 0 2 2 A55
Man UTD Arsenal 3 1 0 2 1 H67
Wigan West Ham 8 1 0 2 1 H47
Southampton Fulham 4 1 0 2 2 A70
Man City Sunderland 5 1 0 3 0
E0 1617 2017-01-15 Everton Man City 1-0 4-0
E0 1617 2016-12-31 Liverpool Man City 1-0 1-0
E0 1415 2015-04-06 Crystal Palace Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 1415 2014-10-25 West Ham Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 1314 2013-11-10 Sunderland Man City 1-0 1-0
E0 1314 2013-10-27 Chelsea Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 1213 2013-03-16 Everton Man City 1-0 2-0
E0 1213 2012-08-26 Liverpool Man City 1-0 2-2
E0 1011 2011-02-12 Man United Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 1011 2011-01-22 Aston Villa Man City 1-0 1-0
E0 0910 2010-03-14 Sunderland Man City 1-0 1-1
E0 0910 2010-02-06 Hull Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 0910 2009-12-16 Tottenham Man City 1-0 3-0
E0 0910 2009-10-18 Wigan Man City 1-0 1-1
E0 0910 2009-10-05 Aston Villa Man City 1-0 1-1
E0 0809 2009-05-16 Tottenham Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 0809 2009-04-04 Arsenal Man City 1-0 2-0
E0 0809 2009-03-15 Chelsea Man City 1-0 1-0
E0 0809 2009-01-31 Stoke Man City 1-0 1-0
E0 0809 2008-12-28 Blackburn Man City 1-0 2-0
in effect when the perceived stronger away team in the PL are losing 1-0 HT < the betting industry is very keen for their affiliates to advise backing the away team especially if the game > 1-1 < when in effect you should be looking to oppose the perceived stronger away team on the asian handicap
if you are new to game state analysis > go on simplesoccerstats > ideas < pull up HT score in PL 1-0 to home team < now look at the away wins since 08/09 = very few = very basic game state analysis without the time of the opening goal showing you in the PL how difficult even strong away teams on paper find life when -1 goal at HT
E0 1617 2016-12-31 Liverpool Man City 1-0 1-0
E0 1415 2015-04-06 Crystal Palace Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 1415 2014-10-25 West Ham Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 1314 2013-11-10 Sunderland Man City 1-0 1-0
E0 1314 2013-10-27 Chelsea Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 1213 2013-03-16 Everton Man City 1-0 2-0
E0 1213 2012-08-26 Liverpool Man City 1-0 2-2
E0 1011 2011-02-12 Man United Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 1011 2011-01-22 Aston Villa Man City 1-0 1-0
E0 0910 2010-03-14 Sunderland Man City 1-0 1-1
E0 0910 2010-02-06 Hull Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 0910 2009-12-16 Tottenham Man City 1-0 3-0
E0 0910 2009-10-18 Wigan Man City 1-0 1-1
E0 0910 2009-10-05 Aston Villa Man City 1-0 1-1
E0 0809 2009-05-16 Tottenham Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 0809 2009-04-04 Arsenal Man City 1-0 2-0
E0 0809 2009-03-15 Chelsea Man City 1-0 1-0
E0 0809 2009-01-31 Stoke Man City 1-0 1-0
E0 0809 2008-12-28 Blackburn Man City 1-0 2-0
in effect when the perceived stronger away team in the PL are losing 1-0 HT < the betting industry is very keen for their affiliates to advise backing the away team especially if the game > 1-1 < when in effect you should be looking to oppose the perceived stronger away team on the asian handicap
if you are new to game state analysis > go on simplesoccerstats > ideas < pull up HT score in PL 1-0 to home team < now look at the away wins since 08/09 = very few = very basic game state analysis without the time of the opening goal showing you in the PL how difficult even strong away teams on paper find life when -1 goal at HT