Putting patriotism aside and being brutally honest, are England a good lay at 1.48 to win?
I hate to say it, but if the same England turn up as played against Algeria, I can easily see it ending 0-0.
BTW, what happens if both us and the USA draw our games? What determines who goes through?
Jeff
SVN vs ENG
The BBC News website answers my latter question:
England have to win to stand a chance of topping the group but if both they and the US draw their respective games, England would need to score two goals more than the US (eg 2-2 as opposed to 0-0) just to stand a chance through the drawing of lots. Three goals better in those final draws would send England through on the number of goals scored overall.
Jeff
England have to win to stand a chance of topping the group but if both they and the US draw their respective games, England would need to score two goals more than the US (eg 2-2 as opposed to 0-0) just to stand a chance through the drawing of lots. Three goals better in those final draws would send England through on the number of goals scored overall.
Jeff
Ferru123 wrote:Putting patriotism aside and being brutally honest, are England a good lay at 1.48 to win?
I hate to say it, but if the same England turn up as played against Algeria, I can easily see it ending 0-0.
BTW, what happens if both us and the USA draw our games? What determines who goes through?
Jeff
Hi Jeff
There are many senario's that could be played and a wealth of markets. I am also not convinced of an England win, but if we do I can't see us beating Slovenia convincingly.
The one that is catching my eye is the 'to qualify' from Group C. There are 9 permutaions depending on the results of the two matches and the market will be volatile and offer lots of opps - liquidity is good with aroud £1.2m matched so far and plenty of money around. Also if you want to lay England then it is slightly better value to Lay England to qualify, which is currently 1.44/1.45 compared to the match odds of 1.46/1.47 (Arb opp as well)!
I accept that you are taking a slight risk that an England draw will be high scoring and mean we qualify that way but this is very unlikey IMO.
There are many senario's that could be played and a wealth of markets. I am also not convinced of an England win, but if we do I can't see us beating Slovenia convincingly.
The one that is catching my eye is the 'to qualify' from Group C. There are 9 permutaions depending on the results of the two matches and the market will be volatile and offer lots of opps - liquidity is good with aroud £1.2m matched so far and plenty of money around. Also if you want to lay England then it is slightly better value to Lay England to qualify, which is currently 1.44/1.45 compared to the match odds of 1.46/1.47 (Arb opp as well)!
I accept that you are taking a slight risk that an England draw will be high scoring and mean we qualify that way but this is very unlikey IMO.Thanks Stewart
I appreciate a high-scoring draw is unlikely, but is this not accounted for in the small difference between the two sets of odds, meaning the value is lost?
Part of me is tempted to lay England, particularly as Slovakia only need a draw to go through, so will defend deep and try to kill off the game from the start. But I think the England players will have a point to prove. No-one likes to be seen as workshy, unpatriotic or unable to handle pressure, so I think England will play with a focus and passion we haven't seen for a while. If players like Lampard, Gerrard and Rooney can play the way they play for their clubs, it will be a 0-3 drubbing with any luck!
Jeff
I appreciate a high-scoring draw is unlikely, but is this not accounted for in the small difference between the two sets of odds, meaning the value is lost?
Part of me is tempted to lay England, particularly as Slovakia only need a draw to go through, so will defend deep and try to kill off the game from the start. But I think the England players will have a point to prove. No-one likes to be seen as workshy, unpatriotic or unable to handle pressure, so I think England will play with a focus and passion we haven't seen for a while. If players like Lampard, Gerrard and Rooney can play the way they play for their clubs, it will be a 0-3 drubbing with any luck!
Jeff
Stewart wrote:Hi Jeff
Also if you want to lay England then it is slightly better value to Lay England to qualify, which is currently 1.44/1.45 compared to the match odds of 1.46/1.47 (Arb opp as well)!
I accept that you are taking a slight risk that an England draw will be high scoring and mean we qualify that way but this is very unlikey IMO.
Yes you are right but the beauty of it is that you can guage quicky enough how the match will play out. The risk here is that England score from the kick off!Ferru123 wrote:I appreciate a high-scoring draw is unlikely, but is this not accounted for in the small difference between the two sets of odds, meaning the value is lost?
However, there is a far better trade and I given et all a clue re market
The match is priced at 2.56 goals with a 1.60 goal advantage to England, so they should win. But then we thought that was the case in the other two matches as well. With so many people expressing doubt over the outcome my contrary streak is bubbling up and telling me that it may be time to back England.
The odds of 1.47 look a bit skinny though, I think I will need to see the final team before making any decision.
The odds of 1.47 look a bit skinny though, I think I will need to see the final team before making any decision.
Hi Mug
Don't be fooled into thinking you need to Lay at 1.45 and back at 1.46. The spread between the two markets is 1.44 to 1.47 and as mentioned by Jeff there is the risk that Eng still go through on a high scoring draw.
Anyway there are far better ops anyway.
Stewart
Don't be fooled into thinking you need to Lay at 1.45 and back at 1.46. The spread between the two markets is 1.44 to 1.47 and as mentioned by Jeff there is the risk that Eng still go through on a high scoring draw.
Anyway there are far better ops anyway.
Stewart
Here's the team:
James
Cole (A) Terry, Upson and Johnson
Barry (Holding)
Milner, Lampard & Gerrard
Rooney and Defoe
Just to cap a miserable week for Joe Cole, Man Utd have just confirmed they won't be signing him. Think Joe needs to change his aftershave
This line up doesn't really inspire me too much and I think Slov will be difficult to break down.
Let us hope that Cappello is a lucky manager
James
Cole (A) Terry, Upson and Johnson
Barry (Holding)
Milner, Lampard & Gerrard
Rooney and Defoe
Just to cap a miserable week for Joe Cole, Man Utd have just confirmed they won't be signing him. Think Joe needs to change his aftershave
This line up doesn't really inspire me too much and I think Slov will be difficult to break down.
Let us hope that Cappello is a lucky manager
I'd put Joe Cole on instead of Barry.
If we were playing Brazil in the finals, there might be a stronger case for a defensive midfielder. But today is literally a must-win game for us, and Slovenia won't pose too much of an attacking threat, so the emphasis should be on attack IMHO. Also, Slovenia will probably defend well today, so having someone who can put the cat amongst the pigeons can't hurt!
Jeff
If we were playing Brazil in the finals, there might be a stronger case for a defensive midfielder. But today is literally a must-win game for us, and Slovenia won't pose too much of an attacking threat, so the emphasis should be on attack IMHO. Also, Slovenia will probably defend well today, so having someone who can put the cat amongst the pigeons can't hurt!
Jeff
Stewart wrote:Here's the team:
James
Cole (A) Terry, Upson and Johnson
Barry (Holding)
Milner, Lampard & Gerrard
Rooney and Defoe
Just to cap a miserable week for Joe Cole, Man Utd have just confirmed they won't be signing him. Think Joe needs to change his aftershave
This line up doesn't really inspire me too much and I think Slov will be difficult to break down.
Let us hope that Cappello is a lucky manager
Turns out Capello did opt for Barry rather than Joe Cole.
I imagine John Terry is no longer on Joe Cole's Christmas card list!
But it is encouraging that Capello decided not to start with Heskey!
Jeff
I imagine John Terry is no longer on Joe Cole's Christmas card list!
But it is encouraging that Capello decided not to start with Heskey!
Jeff
Ferru123 wrote:I'd put Joe Cole on instead of Barry.
If we were playing Brazil in the finals, there might be a stronger case for a defensive midfielder. But today is literally a must-win game for us, and Slovenia won't pose too much of an attacking threat, so the emphasis should be on attack IMHO. Also, Slovenia will probably defend well today, so having someone who can put the cat amongst the pigeons can't hurt!
Jeff