Fairly new to dutching football score markets. I'm trying to understand the source of profit. I assume the score market over the long run is priced efficiently so simply selecting score lines that account for say 54% of the book will lose me money in the long run (the cost of the over-round). Even if there was value in the 54% presumably only 1 or 2 of the scorelines would be holding the value and if you could identify them you would be better off just backing them.
I assume that the skill must come in managing the position you create when its open. In assessing what the likelihood of you reaching a profitable outcome is and adjusting the position accordingly. e.g. In the Bristol City Huddersfield match tonight I dutched all score lines 3 goals and below not including 0-0, 3-0 or 0-3. I called time on the dutch for a small loss in the second half when the score was 2-0 to Bristol. This saved me a large amount of loss as it ended up 4-0. I'm not certain this was a good idea though. If the market is efficient at the start of a game is it not efficient throughout? If the game was played 1000 times for every time I cancel a 2-0 bet and saved money would it not be balanced by the times I let the 2-0 run and got a win.
To think I could accurately forecast the outcome would be to say I could beat the market (basically that the market is offering up value). Is it plausible for the odds to accurately reflect the probable outcomes at the start but be incredibly off during an event. If money moves the markets would this not require the average punter to be over or under betting certain scorelines to cause this effect.
Finding the profit in dutching the score
You can't; at least not with any consistency. That's why it's better to trade scores during the game. I now view it more as a form of entertainment than a realistic way of making money. One idea in a match where you expect a quiet first half and a busier second half is to dutch 1-0 and 0-1, and possibly 2-0 to the favourite, and after say 25-35 minutes, if still goalless, use some profit from these scorelines (they'll have shortened substantially) to fund a couple of unlikely scorelines at what will now be very juicy odds - maybe 3-1 or 2-2 for example. If an early goal were scored, you'd still be able to re-coup some of your stake, unlike with the 0-0 score, which is now totally busted.To think I could accurately forecast the outcome would be to say I could beat the market (basically that the market is offering up value)
There are other creative things to do (see youtube for ideas), but please don't follow exactly the many examples of plain idiocy shown there! I'm sure it's perfectly possible to trade scorelines for profit, but in order to simply back scorelines pre-match and expect to profit long-term you'd have to know something the market doesn't, which is a pretty tall order.
Cheers for replying weemac. The point I was getting at though was that surely trading in play is also trying to beat the market.
Assuming it's efficient at the start of the game I would assume it stays efficient throughout. Taking the example of a slow first half where goals are expected in the 2nd half. You would assume that the rate of increase in odds on 2-0 would be slower for the slow burner where goals are expected in the 2nd half than with a game where little is expected to happen in the 2nd half. If the market is efficient then trading out will only result in you breaking even in the long run (not including fees). Unless your beating the markets cash out/ trade out values.
I can't see how you can trade order flow on an in play score market so I assume any succesful traders are getting value. I wonder if anyone consistently trading the goals market has identified what the source of their profit actually is.
Assuming it's efficient at the start of the game I would assume it stays efficient throughout. Taking the example of a slow first half where goals are expected in the 2nd half. You would assume that the rate of increase in odds on 2-0 would be slower for the slow burner where goals are expected in the 2nd half than with a game where little is expected to happen in the 2nd half. If the market is efficient then trading out will only result in you breaking even in the long run (not including fees). Unless your beating the markets cash out/ trade out values.
I can't see how you can trade order flow on an in play score market so I assume any succesful traders are getting value. I wonder if anyone consistently trading the goals market has identified what the source of their profit actually is.
Yes, I agree that general market efficiency should be relatively constant at all stages, but there are definitely pockets of inefficiency, particularly just after a goal's scored. There are those who monitor and trade upon in-play statistics e.g. shots, possession etc., so there might be an edge there. Commission's a bit of a killer too, as you suggest.
tbh - it's honestly down to game selection. appreciated you are not seeing these games, but believe me, they are there. there are tools out there to assist in this quest (IPT being one). of course, if you're handy with sql etc, you can create your own db and play (/party) on stats til the cows come home.
this is exactly how i play these markets. got no issue in popping up games over the next few days that i have validated as being *not non scoring* ties (i.e perfect for LTD strategies, if not correct score)
every time someone says LTD strategy I get very frustrated for the simple reason that you can adopt a more sophisticated in play approach by looking at the time of the opening goal in terms of the effect that it will have on expectation of a draw = will there be draw bias or not ?
for example >
Here we take a look at the Polish Ekstraklasa when the away team take the lead between 0-20 minutes and the score is 0-1 on 20 minutes.
The findings are taken from the 2011/12 season onwards and only include those sides that are currently in the League.
only 20% ended a draw
for example >
Here we take a look at the Polish Ekstraklasa when the away team take the lead between 0-20 minutes and the score is 0-1 on 20 minutes.
The findings are taken from the 2011/12 season onwards and only include those sides that are currently in the League.
only 20% ended a draw
Each game has within it scores that are more likely to occur than others so if you are happy to accept lower returns and break even on some results then you can split your stake accordingly. Also using other markets can sometimes help as part of your strategy. As an example I have used the Man City v Liverpool game today. From a stake of £100 you can cover a load of scores as per the attached screenshot. 2-2 looks to be the calculated prediction. I personally would go for a City win.
Glyn
Glyn
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Hi Dipstick, yes it was deliberate in this instance as I considered it unlikely to happen. I think the other score not covered is 0-3 to Liverpool which is not impossible but unlikely. A goal to Man City immediately kills those 2 potential results leaving you with a no lose but not win a lot position unless you put 50k on of course.
Glyn
Glyn
Cheers for the replies guys.
Athos if I look at your screen shot of the betfair prices the implied odds are
1-0 = 9.5%
0-1 = 6.1%
1-1 = 12.2%
2-0 = 8.3%
0-2 = 3.7%
2-1 = 10%
1-2 = 6.9%
3-0 = 4%
All scorelines over 3 goals are covered by over 3.5 at take up 34% of the book
in total 94% of the book is covered
The expected values are
Score lines over 3.5 = 54p
1-0 = 99p
0-1 = 50p
1-1 = £1.01
2-0 = 99p
0-2 = -0.004p
2-1 = £1
1-2= 0.004p
3-0 = 0
Other Score Lines = -£6
Overall expected value = -0.97p
So the point I'm making is as you obviously don't intend to make a loss in the long run you must reckon that the odds are wrong so this calculation stacks in your favour or that somehow you can regularly get value during the match by adjusting your position.
I'm wondering which it is but as your calculator seems to suggest 2-2 is the most likely scoreline and the betfair odds dont reflect this then I would guess you reckon the betfair odds are off
I dont have a calculator of my own at the moment Im trying to assemble one and learn the maths underpinning it.
Athos if I look at your screen shot of the betfair prices the implied odds are
1-0 = 9.5%
0-1 = 6.1%
1-1 = 12.2%
2-0 = 8.3%
0-2 = 3.7%
2-1 = 10%
1-2 = 6.9%
3-0 = 4%
All scorelines over 3 goals are covered by over 3.5 at take up 34% of the book
in total 94% of the book is covered
The expected values are
Score lines over 3.5 = 54p
1-0 = 99p
0-1 = 50p
1-1 = £1.01
2-0 = 99p
0-2 = -0.004p
2-1 = £1
1-2= 0.004p
3-0 = 0
Other Score Lines = -£6
Overall expected value = -0.97p
So the point I'm making is as you obviously don't intend to make a loss in the long run you must reckon that the odds are wrong so this calculation stacks in your favour or that somehow you can regularly get value during the match by adjusting your position.
I'm wondering which it is but as your calculator seems to suggest 2-2 is the most likely scoreline and the betfair odds dont reflect this then I would guess you reckon the betfair odds are off
I dont have a calculator of my own at the moment Im trying to assemble one and learn the maths underpinning it.