Has anyone looked at the correlation between the bookies' odds and those on Betfair?
(I'm happy to take this discussion off-line if required).
Correlation Street
-
SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
Yes. The bookies follow the exchanges (predominately betfair).
Actually, that's not always the case - Cheltenham's early morning prices were good examples of that. There were a number of instances where bookmakers shortened the prices of certain horses, before they moved on BetfairSeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:32 amYes. The bookies follow the exchanges (predominately betfair).
I always have Oddschecker open - it's surprising how useful it is. They do end up following each other, but it is totally incorrect to suggest the bookmakers always follow the exchanges
Thanks for your responses - especially LeTiss.
It's possible to determine, at low odds, and in a significant proportion of runners, what the exchange odds will be, given the bookies' odds - and vice versa.
On the odd occasion, the correlation does not hold.
Has anyone noticed a correlation between the race result and those occasions when the correlation doesn't hold?
It's possible to determine, at low odds, and in a significant proportion of runners, what the exchange odds will be, given the bookies' odds - and vice versa.
On the odd occasion, the correlation does not hold.
Has anyone noticed a correlation between the race result and those occasions when the correlation doesn't hold?
I don't like trading horses, so I only get involved with major meetings and festivals. Your day-to-day racing is quite volatile in the early morning, and it's difficult to see who follows who
However, on football and other sports - the bookmakers can be decent guides as to how far a steaming selection will travel until it reaches a point of resistance.
I'm not suggesting it as a strategy, but I have a quad screen set up, and I always keep 2 windows open for my BF graph and Oddschecker
However, on football and other sports - the bookmakers can be decent guides as to how far a steaming selection will travel until it reaches a point of resistance.
I'm not suggesting it as a strategy, but I have a quad screen set up, and I always keep 2 windows open for my BF graph and Oddschecker
-
Thebest147
- Posts: 94
- Joined: Thu Nov 05, 2015 8:01 am
Hi there le tiss
I have often pondered this very question about who follows who,in my mind 2 outcomes
1= why would paddy power betfair employ odds profilers and pay them good money if there odds are way out of wheck as to were they should be,so in that case would you say as a respected trader in these parts if a price first show on betfair is 4.2 for example and 5 mins before the off time it is 7.4 would i be right in saying that this is a value trade and i should back this team or player or horse,as someone who should know and i am sure has a blueprint to work from ie odds profilers,if the selection in there mind is 4.2,and giving that it hasnt bolted and no reason for such a drift to occur that is value all day long,
2= you could understand a horse drifting before the start,any thing could happen for this too happen,
but then another point if a horse is first show 4.2 and is steaming into 2.6 and no other horse is misbehaving then if the odds profilers done there job properly and no reason to think they have not done there job properly then surely this must be a value LAY as it is only traders jumping on the band wagon in fear off missing out on a gamble who have backed this horse into such silly odds as it is no value would like to hear your thoughts le tiss
thank you
ollie
I have often pondered this very question about who follows who,in my mind 2 outcomes
1= why would paddy power betfair employ odds profilers and pay them good money if there odds are way out of wheck as to were they should be,so in that case would you say as a respected trader in these parts if a price first show on betfair is 4.2 for example and 5 mins before the off time it is 7.4 would i be right in saying that this is a value trade and i should back this team or player or horse,as someone who should know and i am sure has a blueprint to work from ie odds profilers,if the selection in there mind is 4.2,and giving that it hasnt bolted and no reason for such a drift to occur that is value all day long,
2= you could understand a horse drifting before the start,any thing could happen for this too happen,
but then another point if a horse is first show 4.2 and is steaming into 2.6 and no other horse is misbehaving then if the odds profilers done there job properly and no reason to think they have not done there job properly then surely this must be a value LAY as it is only traders jumping on the band wagon in fear off missing out on a gamble who have backed this horse into such silly odds as it is no value would like to hear your thoughts le tiss
thank you
ollie
Have you noticed that when the two sets of odds diverge, there is a correlation between the result and the divergence that doesn't exist when there is no divergence?
No idea, I haven't done any analysis on this, as I use Oddschecker for pre-event stuff. I'm interested in price movements for trades, not for an actual bet on the outcome
It could be worth thinking about?LeTiss wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:47 pmNo idea, I haven't done any analysis on this, as I use Oddschecker for pre-event stuff. I'm interested in price movements for trades, not for an actual bet on the outcome
It could give an extra dimension for certain trades..