Today's Horse Racing
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
Well done mate, dont be hard on yourself. You are trading mighty fine my friend. Maybe only check your P &L once a week will distract you and stop reminding you from unavoidable losses?
I currently use 4 screens but I am upgrading to 6 screens soon. I genuinely think you can trade with just one screen though.
I have market overview on my left screen, 4 ladders and enhanced charts on the right. Guardian and enhanced volume charts on the top right and my browser loaded in the top left.
I am only going 6 screens because I trade financials too and I like to have an eye on them throughout the day rather than on my laptop.
I currently use 4 screens but I am upgrading to 6 screens soon. I genuinely think you can trade with just one screen though.
I have market overview on my left screen, 4 ladders and enhanced charts on the right. Guardian and enhanced volume charts on the top right and my browser loaded in the top left.
I am only going 6 screens because I trade financials too and I like to have an eye on them throughout the day rather than on my laptop.
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ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2153
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
yeah vwddragontrades wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2017 5:45 pmVery consistent today. I never used to like Monday's but over the past couple of months I have found a way of being more defensive and it seems to be paying off.
Only made one real mistake where I was scalping a runner between 20-22 and a spike came in and it went up into the 30s that cotst me about £17 but I had a profit on another runner which I was trading at the same time and didn't react to the bad trade fast enough.
I think I need to buy a new monitor because I can only see 5 ladders at a time. Any advice on what screen to get or should I use 2 normal sized screens and have ladders on both?
don't dis your scalping, it aint easy (I suck at scalping)! if you can crack those homerun markets, you're gonna be a very very good trader-
SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
Thats a flash logo you have there RuthlessSimon.
This forum is so busy lately.
This forum is so busy lately.
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
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ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2153
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
what I get to when I'm up at stupid o'clock (if I'm not analysing the markets)!
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
It looks like there is going to be alot of noise around today in the markets.
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
Every small field looks really competitve to me. Usually find carnage and big price spikes.
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
Two embarrasing trades from me today. Enjoy your trading today guys, just not focused today.
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
I have spent the evening looking into detail of an opportunity I think I have found.
Godolphin have one runner tomorrow Good Run in the 3.30 Newcastle. This horse opened up at 9/4 and is currently 6/4 with the bookies.
On paper and from the form book everything suggests this horse is going to breeze the race easily tomorrow, However I will explain my reasons for laying it. I think this could go off very very short tomorrow. 1.72... maybe shorter, unless the form gurus have clicked onto to what I have seen.
Good Run won its last race from what seems initially impressive. I have watched the race a few times over and what these form sites have seemed to have missed is that they have already stated the race was at a steady to slow gallop with Good Run just sat off the leaders, however once the race got going one horse whipped himself up to the front and took on the leader half way through. This race in November was really tactical. The very clever sod riding Good Run last time out saw this and immediately pulled Good Run to the back of the field. As the race got to the business end Good Run was completely out of sorts but still managed to win. Ridden along at the back of the field, now the only reason this was the case imo is because of the change in race shape and pace. It went from a very ordinarily/slow gallop to a pretty forceful one. Lack of inexperience catching him out.
All the runners that rode in this race have pretty much been running over the winter, not one of them have won yet since that race. The top rated horse has dropped 10lbs and still cant win a race. I think that race at best was a 0-80. For two year olds this could be a fairly decent race but for horses aged upto 7/8 years it was pretty mediocre with every horse bar the second place finisher out of form.
Back to the previous race. There was an illusion in this race, because the stop clocks have said it was a slowly run race, the way in which Good Run came from last to first to win has made it look impressive.
I believe he only came last to first simply because everybody else rode a crazy race.
Looking at the video form the horse had no movement if anything he appeared to be very stiff in the neck for a horse who won so easily. Most of the good ones run with a nice rhythm and a good bobble of the head. I didnt see it and quite unimpressed tbh.
I have looked into the pedigree of this horse and for a Godolphin runner I am not impressed. The mother was rated in the 70s. The horses progeny doesn't have a rating higher than 100. The form book tells you rubbish how its related to this and that, but tbh, if everybody listened to the sire side, every horse would have potential. (just my opinion)
Good Run had been off the track for quite a while and was recently gelded before its last win. Looking at that handicap race on the 28th November, Saed bin Suroor was in great form and I believe the horse ran because it had recently been gelded and the yard were in good form.
I have been trying to think in the trainers mind and lets be honest. If the horse really truly has the scope that the form is giving off, why has the horse ran late November to than re run in March back at Newcastle AW weather track. If this horse is going to be progressive why are they running a horse that has been off the track for so long to start really early in the spring at Newcastle.
If its going to be running in big handicaps this year going for the win tomorrow is a stupid idea as there will be a 6/10lb rise. This tells me it has to be either pretty average or a group horse. If it is a group horse, why has it taken until its four to get there? It won its first three races.. than ran an absolute shocker than gets gelded to run at Newcastle laet November.. hmmm... Seems pretty strange to me.
Based on the way its paper form looks we can suggest this horse could be rated 100/105 maybe higher in the coming months. This horse wont win many big races in the summer off a mark like that, so tomorrow it appears all guns are blazing and there going for a race which is probably about the horses limit imo.
Lightly raced four year old that is probably rated about spot on for its ability but looking at the competition and probably how short the price will be will be... I dont think thats value to back it.
The 3.30 Newcastle tomorrow is the biggest race on the card a class 2. So its no walkabout. Its a tough race.
The only other Godolphin horse with a similar profile I can think of was a horse name Tryster who ran over the AW to go on to win a group 1. Somehow I dont see it being quite the same with Good Run.
I am of the opinion that this horse is not what the backers think its cracked up to be. IMO this horse is probably a right ******* to train and can just have days where it wont turn up. It ran a race last year and showed no ability whatsoever, that race was possibly weaker than tomorrows.
The reason for my post is that I believe this horse will get smashed of the boards as everything in the form book suggest that it will just get shorter and shorter. I think everybody thinks this is a lightly raced special Godolphin horse whereas IMO its a difficult horse to get right and to to train.
I think taking an early price on Good Run for a long term steam to trade out(currently 2.98), to than put the profit as a liability lay on Good Run just before the off or at SP could turn out to be a right cracker. I am not suggesting to lay it straight out but I think if you can get a risk free lay on this horse it could be a good one.
Having said that, if it does win tomorrow, it will probably go on and win by 5/6/7 lengths or more and will win group races.Just cannot see no logical answer to win this race tomorrow if its not a special one. IMO its either very very good horse or its pretty mediocre. I think its the latter.
Godolphin have one runner tomorrow Good Run in the 3.30 Newcastle. This horse opened up at 9/4 and is currently 6/4 with the bookies.
On paper and from the form book everything suggests this horse is going to breeze the race easily tomorrow, However I will explain my reasons for laying it. I think this could go off very very short tomorrow. 1.72... maybe shorter, unless the form gurus have clicked onto to what I have seen.
Good Run won its last race from what seems initially impressive. I have watched the race a few times over and what these form sites have seemed to have missed is that they have already stated the race was at a steady to slow gallop with Good Run just sat off the leaders, however once the race got going one horse whipped himself up to the front and took on the leader half way through. This race in November was really tactical. The very clever sod riding Good Run last time out saw this and immediately pulled Good Run to the back of the field. As the race got to the business end Good Run was completely out of sorts but still managed to win. Ridden along at the back of the field, now the only reason this was the case imo is because of the change in race shape and pace. It went from a very ordinarily/slow gallop to a pretty forceful one. Lack of inexperience catching him out.
All the runners that rode in this race have pretty much been running over the winter, not one of them have won yet since that race. The top rated horse has dropped 10lbs and still cant win a race. I think that race at best was a 0-80. For two year olds this could be a fairly decent race but for horses aged upto 7/8 years it was pretty mediocre with every horse bar the second place finisher out of form.
Back to the previous race. There was an illusion in this race, because the stop clocks have said it was a slowly run race, the way in which Good Run came from last to first to win has made it look impressive.
I believe he only came last to first simply because everybody else rode a crazy race.
Looking at the video form the horse had no movement if anything he appeared to be very stiff in the neck for a horse who won so easily. Most of the good ones run with a nice rhythm and a good bobble of the head. I didnt see it and quite unimpressed tbh.
I have looked into the pedigree of this horse and for a Godolphin runner I am not impressed. The mother was rated in the 70s. The horses progeny doesn't have a rating higher than 100. The form book tells you rubbish how its related to this and that, but tbh, if everybody listened to the sire side, every horse would have potential. (just my opinion)
Good Run had been off the track for quite a while and was recently gelded before its last win. Looking at that handicap race on the 28th November, Saed bin Suroor was in great form and I believe the horse ran because it had recently been gelded and the yard were in good form.
I have been trying to think in the trainers mind and lets be honest. If the horse really truly has the scope that the form is giving off, why has the horse ran late November to than re run in March back at Newcastle AW weather track. If this horse is going to be progressive why are they running a horse that has been off the track for so long to start really early in the spring at Newcastle.
If its going to be running in big handicaps this year going for the win tomorrow is a stupid idea as there will be a 6/10lb rise. This tells me it has to be either pretty average or a group horse. If it is a group horse, why has it taken until its four to get there? It won its first three races.. than ran an absolute shocker than gets gelded to run at Newcastle laet November.. hmmm... Seems pretty strange to me.
Based on the way its paper form looks we can suggest this horse could be rated 100/105 maybe higher in the coming months. This horse wont win many big races in the summer off a mark like that, so tomorrow it appears all guns are blazing and there going for a race which is probably about the horses limit imo.
Lightly raced four year old that is probably rated about spot on for its ability but looking at the competition and probably how short the price will be will be... I dont think thats value to back it.
The 3.30 Newcastle tomorrow is the biggest race on the card a class 2. So its no walkabout. Its a tough race.
The only other Godolphin horse with a similar profile I can think of was a horse name Tryster who ran over the AW to go on to win a group 1. Somehow I dont see it being quite the same with Good Run.
I am of the opinion that this horse is not what the backers think its cracked up to be. IMO this horse is probably a right ******* to train and can just have days where it wont turn up. It ran a race last year and showed no ability whatsoever, that race was possibly weaker than tomorrows.
The reason for my post is that I believe this horse will get smashed of the boards as everything in the form book suggest that it will just get shorter and shorter. I think everybody thinks this is a lightly raced special Godolphin horse whereas IMO its a difficult horse to get right and to to train.
I think taking an early price on Good Run for a long term steam to trade out(currently 2.98), to than put the profit as a liability lay on Good Run just before the off or at SP could turn out to be a right cracker. I am not suggesting to lay it straight out but I think if you can get a risk free lay on this horse it could be a good one.
Having said that, if it does win tomorrow, it will probably go on and win by 5/6/7 lengths or more and will win group races.Just cannot see no logical answer to win this race tomorrow if its not a special one. IMO its either very very good horse or its pretty mediocre. I think its the latter.