The Effect of the Early Home Goal and 1-0 Half Time in Argentina Primera
In the table below I have added the last 55 games in Argentina Primera ( regular season ) where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band and 38% ended over 2.5 goals
44-7-4 < the home teams won 80%
9/55 followed the pathway > 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minutes time band and 2/9 ended 1-1.
“In this masterwork Pullein explains how you can work out what is likely to happen …. Kevin Pullein is the leading football commentator for the Racing Post. … for instance, a team which is losing by 0-1 is 6% more likely to score the next goal …” < well not in this profile of game
Trading Strategy
In Argentina Primera in games where the home teams open the scoring 0-10 minutes and the half time score is 1-0 ; back against ( lay ) the 1-1 correct score and if still 1-0 on 69 minutes then scratch the trade by backing 1-1.
1-0 half time to the home team in Argentina Primera added to the early goal metric and 1-1 with a goal in the 46-70 minutes time band will not be a common event and if this does happen then 1-1 full time will be an unlikely outcome.
T HT FT
Colon Lanus 1 1 0 1 0
Tuc Sarm 7 1 0 2 1 H71
Lanus San 6 1 0 2 2 H54
Huracan Ros 7 1 0 1 1 A52
Aldosivi San 9 1 0 1 2 A55
Quil Lanus 9 1 0 1 0
Tigra Boca 3 1 0 1 1 A81
Colon Defensa 10 1 0 1 0
Aldosivi Cord 10 1 0 2 1 H56
Ros Arsenal 10 1 0 5 0
Velez Ros 8 1 0 2 0
Temp Pat 5 1 0 1 0
Arsenal River 1 1 0 2 1 A49
Union Tigre 9 1 0 1 0
Gim Quilmes 6 1 0 1 0
Racing Boca 10 1 0 1 0
Defensa Aldosivi 8 1 0 4 0
Banfield Gimnasia 9 1 0 2 0
Arsenal Defensa 9 1 0 1 0
San Temperley 8 1 0 2 0
Defensa River 3 1 0 1 0
Boca Banfield 4 1 0 3 0
Aldosivi Crucero 6 1 0 2 0
Nueva Huracan 5 1 0 3 0
Indep. Atletico 7 1 0 2 0
Boca Newells 5 1 0 4 0
Rafaela Est. 10 1 0 1 2 A48
Tigre Est. 7 1 0 2 0
Aldosivi Godoy 4 1 0 2 0
Boca Indep. 5 1 0 3 1 A54
Belgrano Tigre 1 1 0 1 2 A75
Godoy Est. 9 1 0 1 1 A83
Racing Banfield 7 1 0 1 0
Belgrano Rosario 2 1 0 1 0
Vélez Arsenal 6 1 0 2 1 H56
Lanus Belgrano 5 1 0 1 0
Godoy Velez 10 1 0 1 1 A80
Quilmes Juniors 3 1 0 1 0
Gimnasia All Boys 8 1 0 2 1 H69
Boca Godoy 9 1 0 3 0
Lanus Colon 2 1 0 1 0
River Newells 8 1 0 1 0
Colon Tigre 4 1 0 1 0
Olimpo Rafaela 6 1 0 2 1 A54
Newells Racing 10 1 0 2 0
All Boys Olimpo 6 1 0 1 0
Boca Belgrano 7 1 0 2 3 A47
Gimnasia Newells 9 1 0 3 0
San Racing 8 1 0 1 0
Tigre Rafaela 8 1 0 3 1 A62
Rosario Racing 6 1 0 1 1 A87
Belgrano Tigre 2 1 0 2 0
Newells Godoy 7 1 0 1 1 A60
Rafaela Olimpo 8 1 0 2 0
All Boys Quilmes 7 1 0 4 0
Argentina 1-0 Half Time game State added to the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band
If you look at a number of leagues around the globe >
1-0 HT and the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band > 1-1 pathway in the 46-70 time band will not be common if that happens < in many leagues 1-1 FT will be a rare event < which you can exploit
for example > 1-0 HT goal 0-10 minutes in the PL > 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minute time band and 1-1 FT is MONSTER rare <
simply back over 2.5 goals in that profile / lay the draw
1-0 HT and the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band > 1-1 pathway in the 46-70 time band will not be common if that happens < in many leagues 1-1 FT will be a rare event < which you can exploit
for example > 1-0 HT goal 0-10 minutes in the PL > 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 minute time band and 1-1 FT is MONSTER rare <
simply back over 2.5 goals in that profile / lay the draw
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Danish Bettor
- Posts: 13
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2016 12:00 pm
Thanks, Cassini! I find your analyses very interesting and they definitely have got me thinking about how to exploit certain game paths as there seem to be some potential profiitable strategies here.