In the regular season ( stage 1 and stage 2 ) in Japan J League 2015 where the away teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-20 minutes time band , 75% ended over 2.5 goals and 39% ended over 3.5 goals
Both teams scored in 70% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 66%
The home teams won 25%, 11% ended a draw and the away teams won 64%
42% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
0-1 half time , 60% ended over 2.5 goals and the away teams won 67%
Last season ( regular season ) in Japan J league where the away teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-20 minutes time band , 73% ended over 2.5 goals and 47% ended over 3.5 goals
Both teams scored in 65% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 59%
Game Pathway
6/49 0-1 FT
> 1-1 > 22/49 <> 7-9-6 > away teams won 27%
> 0-2 > 21/49 <> 2-0-19 > away teams won 90%
9-9-31 < away teams won 63%
0-1 half time in the table below , 50% ended over 2.5 goals and the away teams won 70%
37% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
T T+1 HT FT Goal 80 +
Avispa Kashiwa 7 A63 0 1 0 4 81 90
Vegalta Júbilo 4 0 1 0 1
Nagoya Shonan 6 A37 0 2 1 3
Kashiwa Omiya 16 A19 0 2 1 2
Albirex Urawa 7 H15 1 1 1 2 90
Kashima Omiya 13 A40 0 2 1 3
Omiya Sagan 7 H58 0 1 1 1
Gamba Tokyo 13 H15 2 2 3 3 9090
Vegalta Nagoya 2 A57 0 1 1 2 86
Shonan Avispa 2 A15 0 2 0 2
Gamba Vent 5 H8 1 1 2 1 80
Kawasaki Kashima 4 A5 1 4 2 5 82
Avispa Jublio 9 H16 1 1 2 3
Urawa Kawasaki 15 H28 1 1 1 2
Jublio Sagan 12 H90 0 1 1 1 90
Gamba Vissel 15 0 1 0 1
Tokyo Jublio 8 H29 1 1 3 2 90
Vent Urawa 14 A45 0 2 0 2
Nagoya Vent 11 H62 0 1 1 3
Yoko Vissel 18 A55 0 1 3 2 8590
Shonan Sagan 15 A61 0 1 0 2
Vegalta Kawasaki 17 A21 0 2 0 3 87
Sagan Tokyo 10 H58 0 1 3 2 9090
Vent Vissel 7 A10 0 3 0 3
Vent San 16 A74 0 1 0 3 80
Gamba Nagoya 3 H45 1 1 3 3 8789
Urawa Tokyo 13 A31 0 2 3 2
Vegalta Vent 4 H59 0 1 2 1
Nagoya Sagan 6 0 1 0 1
Vissel San 3 H13 1 1 1 1
Gamba Shonan 10 H45 1 1 3 3 8284
Avispa San 18 A31 0 3 0 4
Gamba Jublio 17 H45 1 1 2 1
Shonan Tokyo 20 0 1 0 1
Kashiwa Kawasaki 15 H30 1 1 1 3
Nagoya Vissel 11 0 1 0 1
Vent Kashiwa 12 A70 0 1 0 2
Vissel Jublio 7 H15 1 1 4 1 8089
Avispa Omiya 15 A48 0 1 1 2
Albirex Vent 14 H18 1 1 2 2
Yoko San 15 H69 0 1 1 2
Jublio Yoko 3 A11 1 4 1 5
Shonan Kashima 20 A45 0 2 0 3
Vegalta Gamba 5 A14 1 3 1 3
Tokyo Nagoya 17 H43 1 1 3 2 81
Jublio Avispa 4 H16 1 2 2 2
Vent Kawasaki 9 A25 0 2 0 4 87
Kashiwa Jublio 14 H55 0 1 2 2 90
Yoko Vegalta 18 0 1 0 1
Japan J league early away goal data
in J league in games where the away team open the scoring 0-20 minutes > 0-2 pathway is just as likely as > 1-1 < as a result the early away goal metric in J league will lower the expectation of a game ending a DRAW < because in general there will be expectation of acceleration of goal production 
if you look at the " mainstream " in terms of football trading strategy > lay the draw = LTD = a very popular strategy <
as you dig deeper you will start to appreciate how unsophisticated in general the trading strategy is >
when you look at the time of the opening goal in an individual league you should discover that you will be able to identify to a high accuracy IN PLAY , games with strong draw bias / games where lowered expectation of a draw <
indeed the opening goal by the away team in J league in the 0-20 minutes time band < season on season = lowered expectation of the game ending a draw
as you dig deeper you will start to appreciate how unsophisticated in general the trading strategy is >
when you look at the time of the opening goal in an individual league you should discover that you will be able to identify to a high accuracy IN PLAY , games with strong draw bias / games where lowered expectation of a draw <
indeed the opening goal by the away team in J league in the 0-20 minutes time band < season on season = lowered expectation of the game ending a draw
Cassini wrote: ↑Sat Mar 04, 2017 7:56 amIn the regular season ( stage 1 and stage 2 ) in Japan J League 2015 where the away teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-20 minutes time band , 75% ended over 2.5 goals and 39% ended over 3.5 goals
Both teams scored in 70% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 66%
The home teams won 25%, 11% ended a draw and the away teams won 64%
42% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
0-1 half time , 60% ended over 2.5 goals and the away teams won 67%
Last season ( regular season ) in Japan J league where the away teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-20 minutes time band , 73% ended over 2.5 goals and 47% ended over 3.5 goals
Both teams scored in 65% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 59%
Game Pathway
6/49 0-1 FT
> 1-1 > 22/49 <> 7-9-6 > away teams won 27%
> 0-2 > 21/49 <> 2-0-19 > away teams won 90%
9-9-31 < away teams won 63%
0-1 half time in the table below , 50% ended over 2.5 goals and the away teams won 70%
37% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
T T+1 HT FT Goal 80 +
Avispa Kashiwa 7 A63 0 1 0 4 81 90
Vegalta Júbilo 4 0 1 0 1
Nagoya Shonan 6 A37 0 2 1 3
Kashiwa Omiya 16 A19 0 2 1 2
Albirex Urawa 7 H15 1 1 1 2 90
Kashima Omiya 13 A40 0 2 1 3
Omiya Sagan 7 H58 0 1 1 1
Gamba Tokyo 13 H15 2 2 3 3 9090
Vegalta Nagoya 2 A57 0 1 1 2 86
Shonan Avispa 2 A15 0 2 0 2
Gamba Vent 5 H8 1 1 2 1 80
Kawasaki Kashima 4 A5 1 4 2 5 82
Avispa Jublio 9 H16 1 1 2 3
Urawa Kawasaki 15 H28 1 1 1 2
Jublio Sagan 12 H90 0 1 1 1 90
Gamba Vissel 15 0 1 0 1
Tokyo Jublio 8 H29 1 1 3 2 90
Vent Urawa 14 A45 0 2 0 2
Nagoya Vent 11 H62 0 1 1 3
Yoko Vissel 18 A55 0 1 3 2 8590
Shonan Sagan 15 A61 0 1 0 2
Vegalta Kawasaki 17 A21 0 2 0 3 87
Sagan Tokyo 10 H58 0 1 3 2 9090
Vent Vissel 7 A10 0 3 0 3
Vent San 16 A74 0 1 0 3 80
Gamba Nagoya 3 H45 1 1 3 3 8789
Urawa Tokyo 13 A31 0 2 3 2
Vegalta Vent 4 H59 0 1 2 1
Nagoya Sagan 6 0 1 0 1
Vissel San 3 H13 1 1 1 1
Gamba Shonan 10 H45 1 1 3 3 8284
Avispa San 18 A31 0 3 0 4
Gamba Jublio 17 H45 1 1 2 1
Shonan Tokyo 20 0 1 0 1
Kashiwa Kawasaki 15 H30 1 1 1 3
Nagoya Vissel 11 0 1 0 1
Vent Kashiwa 12 A70 0 1 0 2
Vissel Jublio 7 H15 1 1 4 1 8089
Avispa Omiya 15 A48 0 1 1 2
Albirex Vent 14 H18 1 1 2 2
Yoko San 15 H69 0 1 1 2
Jublio Yoko 3 A11 1 4 1 5
Shonan Kashima 20 A45 0 2 0 3
Vegalta Gamba 5 A14 1 3 1 3
Tokyo Nagoya 17 H43 1 1 3 2 81
Jublio Avispa 4 H16 1 2 2 2
Vent Kawasaki 9 A25 0 2 0 4 87
Kashiwa Jublio 14 H55 0 1 2 2 90
Yoko Vegalta 18 0 1 0 1
it is 2-2 in Gamba Osaka game on 79 minutes < you should have established by now that a goal 80 + is more common in a game with an early goal then when no early goal metric so by definition if 2-2 on 79 = lowered expectation of a draw for the simple reason that there would have been some expectation of a further goal < around 40% expectation to be precise , which means that the draw at around 2/7 at 2-2 as time decayed late in the game was the wrong price
Originally posted by Nape:
Sanfrecce 0-1 HT added to the early away goal = lowered expectation of the home team fighting backing in the 2nd half <
on 55 minutes at 0-1
11/2 5/2 8/13
Kashiwa = around 70% expectation that they will win > 1/0.70 = 4/9
if you look at 0-1 HT goal 0-20 minutes in J league < season on season = lowered expectation of the home team fighting back = lowered expectation of the game ending a draw
Sanfrecce 0-1 HT added to the early away goal = lowered expectation of the home team fighting backing in the 2nd half <
on 55 minutes at 0-1
11/2 5/2 8/13
Kashiwa = around 70% expectation that they will win > 1/0.70 = 4/9
if you look at 0-1 HT goal 0-20 minutes in J league < season on season = lowered expectation of the home team fighting back = lowered expectation of the game ending a draw
the 2 early away goal games in J league end 2-3 and 0-2 < for the average Joe who looks at J league results on a site such as soccerstats >
they are simply 2 random games with no connection < if you follow game state analysis / the effect of the early goal = 2 games where the opening goal produced lowered expectation of a draw which you could have exploited in play
they are simply 2 random games with no connection < if you follow game state analysis / the effect of the early goal = 2 games where the opening goal produced lowered expectation of a draw which you could have exploited in play
quote:
Originally posted by Nape:
Trading advice in Sagan Tosu game
lay the draw @ 3.5
at 2-1
back the draw @ 13.0
> you go to a trading seminar and they discuss LTD strategy < have a look at the effect of the time of the opening goal in terms of expectation of a draw
Originally posted by Nape:
Trading advice in Sagan Tosu game
lay the draw @ 3.5
at 2-1
back the draw @ 13.0
> you go to a trading seminar and they discuss LTD strategy < have a look at the effect of the time of the opening goal in terms of expectation of a draw
The Effect of the Early Home Goal in Japan J League 2015
Posted on: November 28th, 2015 by Jonny Grossmark
In the table below I have added all the games this season ( stage 1 and stage 2 ) where the home teams in Japan J League opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band, 76% ended over 2.5 goals and 53% ended over 3.5 goals
Both teams scored in 79% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 59%
The home teams won 59%, 26% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 15%
56% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
1-0 half time in the table below and 50% ended over 2.5 goals
T HT FT Goal 80 +
Urawa Vissel 2 3 1 5 2 84
Kashima Yokohama 10 1 0 2 0
Sagan Vegalta 1 1 0 1 0
Shonan Kashima 5 2 0 2 1 90
Kashima Kashiwa 3 1 2 3 2 90
Gamba Urawa 7 1 0 2 1 90
Kawasaki Gamba 2 2 1 5 3 82
Albirex Kawasaki 6 1 0 1 2
Kashima Urawa 4 1 1 1 2
Matsumoto Montedio 7 1 1 2 2 82 86
Matsumoto Gamba 7 1 0 1 1 90
Gamba Shonan 9 1 0 1 0
Sanfrecce Nagoya 6 2 0 5 2 85
Sagan Yokohama 8 1 0 1 2
Yokahama Ventforet 8 1 0 2 0
Tokyo Vegalta 9 3 0 3 1
Albirex Gamba 10 1 0 2 2
Gamba Yokohama 5 1 0 2 2 83 90
Tokyo Albirex 9 1 0 3 1 90
Sanfrecce Mat. 3 3 0 6 0 86
Vissel Yakohama 8 1 1 1 1
Shimizu Kawasaki 7 2 1 5 2 80 83
Urawa Tokyo 5 2 0 4 1
Vegalta Urawa 8 1 1 4 4 80 82
Sagan Vissel 4 1 0 1 1
Yokohama Sanfrecce 5 1 1 1 2
Shonan Sagan 10 1 1 4 2
Shimizu Montedio 3 3 0 3 3 85 89 90
Yokohama Shonan 9 1 0 3 0 85 90
Nagoya Shimizu 6 2 0 3 1 89
Tokyo Sanfrecce 1 1 1 1 2 82
Albirex Vissel 9 2 1 2 2
Vissel Ventforet 4 2 0 4 1 83
Sanfrecce Ventforet 10 1 0 2 0 87
Posted on: November 28th, 2015 by Jonny Grossmark
In the table below I have added all the games this season ( stage 1 and stage 2 ) where the home teams in Japan J League opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band, 76% ended over 2.5 goals and 53% ended over 3.5 goals
Both teams scored in 79% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 59%
The home teams won 59%, 26% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 15%
56% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
1-0 half time in the table below and 50% ended over 2.5 goals
T HT FT Goal 80 +
Urawa Vissel 2 3 1 5 2 84
Kashima Yokohama 10 1 0 2 0
Sagan Vegalta 1 1 0 1 0
Shonan Kashima 5 2 0 2 1 90
Kashima Kashiwa 3 1 2 3 2 90
Gamba Urawa 7 1 0 2 1 90
Kawasaki Gamba 2 2 1 5 3 82
Albirex Kawasaki 6 1 0 1 2
Kashima Urawa 4 1 1 1 2
Matsumoto Montedio 7 1 1 2 2 82 86
Matsumoto Gamba 7 1 0 1 1 90
Gamba Shonan 9 1 0 1 0
Sanfrecce Nagoya 6 2 0 5 2 85
Sagan Yokohama 8 1 0 1 2
Yokahama Ventforet 8 1 0 2 0
Tokyo Vegalta 9 3 0 3 1
Albirex Gamba 10 1 0 2 2
Gamba Yokohama 5 1 0 2 2 83 90
Tokyo Albirex 9 1 0 3 1 90
Sanfrecce Mat. 3 3 0 6 0 86
Vissel Yakohama 8 1 1 1 1
Shimizu Kawasaki 7 2 1 5 2 80 83
Urawa Tokyo 5 2 0 4 1
Vegalta Urawa 8 1 1 4 4 80 82
Sagan Vissel 4 1 0 1 1
Yokohama Sanfrecce 5 1 1 1 2
Shonan Sagan 10 1 1 4 2
Shimizu Montedio 3 3 0 3 3 85 89 90
Yokohama Shonan 9 1 0 3 0 85 90
Nagoya Shimizu 6 2 0 3 1 89
Tokyo Sanfrecce 1 1 1 1 2 82
Albirex Vissel 9 2 1 2 2
Vissel Ventforet 4 2 0 4 1 83
Sanfrecce Ventforet 10 1 0 2 0 87