trading the draw around the effect of the early goal metric

[jonnyg]

How does an early goal metric effect expectation of a draw in a game of football ?

IF we look at games yesterday where the home team opened the scoring 0-10 / away team opened the scoring 0-20


3-1 1-2 2-1 83 3-1 82 3-1 90 3-2 9090 0-2 3-1 0-1 0-2 0-1 2-4 2-1 2-1 83



Premier League
Championship
league 1
league 2
National League


0% ended a draw

[jonnyg]

Here I have looked at matches dating back to the 2011/12 season and I have only looked at teams that are currently in the Premier League and does not include those teams such as Newcastle United who although where in the Premier League between 2011/12 and 2015/16 were relegated last season.

On looking at the data then Chelsea are certainly the comeback kings averaging 2.11 pts per game when losing 0-1 after 20 minutes.

Arsenal are the only side to have scored in every game when losing 0-1 at home after 20 minutes, and I believe this record goes back until 2004. However an honorouble mention should go to West Ham who have scored in 14 of their 16 matches in this scenario.

When looking outside the Top 7 teams there are some teams that have shown no real fightback.

Crystal Palace being the worst offenders, who have lost 12 of their 14 matches. These are followed by Southampton who have lost 9 of their 13, Swansea who have lost 11 of 18 & Sunderland who have lost 14 of 24.

Also of note when West Brom have conceded the opening goal and are 0-1 after 20 minutes they have conceded the next goal in 12 of 16 matches.

If we take the sides outside the Top 7 then we have 140 matches where the home side only won 13 (9.28%) There were 33 Draws (23.57) and the away side won 94 (67.14%)

Interestingly the early away goal seems to reduce the prospect of a draw and when we look at the top 6 sides with a fightback record averaging 1 point and over per game. We can see that in the 52 matches only 8 (15.38%) finished all square and when considering that the home side scored the equaliser in 30 of these matches, then laying the draw at this stage could be a profitable angle.

Game State Analysis Table 0-1 on 20 Minutes

SN = Scored Next

CN = Conceded Next

NG = No Further Goals

BS = Both Teams Scored

Team Matches W D L PPG SN CN NG BS O2.5 O3.5 HT O1.5
Chelsea 9 6 1 2 2.11 7 2 0 8 8 4 6
Arsenal 8 4 3 1 1.88 6 2 0 8 7 5 5
Spurs 15 7 0 8 1.40 8 5 2 11 13 7 7
Man Utd 9 3 2 4 1.22 5 4 0 8 8 6 6
Bournemouth 4 1 1 2 1.00 1 3 0 4 3 3 2
Liverpool 7 2 1 4 1.00 3 2 2 4 4 1 2
West Ham 16 3 6 7 0.94 10 6 0 14 12 11 9
Man City 7 2 0 5 0.86 2 4 1 6 6 4 4
Hull 8 2 0 6 0.75 2 4 2 4 4 3 2
Everton 13 2 3 8 0.69 7 2 4 7 7 4 8
Leicester 6 0 4 2 0.67 5 1 0 5 5 3 4
Stoke 11 2 1 8 0.64 4 7 0 7 8 6 7
Watford 5 1 0 4 0.60 3 2 0 5 5 2 3
Sunderland 24 2 8 14 0.58 10 9 5 17 13 9 11
Swansea 18 1 6 11 0.50 8 8 2 14 12 9 11
Burnley 2 0 1 1 0.50 1 0 1 1 0 0 1
Soton 13 1 3 9 0.46 6 6 1 8 7 2 5
WBA 16 0 5 11 0.31 4 12 0 10 10 9 11
C Palace 14 0 2 12 0.14 4 8 2 8 8 3 5
Middlesboro 3 0 0 3 0.00 2 1 0 3 3 1 3
Total 208 39 47 122 98 88 22 152 143 92 112

[jonnyg]

when you are looking at a LTD strategy < Lay the draw strategy > your focus should be on an individual league and how the time of the opening goal added to the current score ( game state ) effects accuracy.

[jonnyg]

Hull at home in the Premier League when 0-1 at the 20 minutes mark >

2-1 3-1 2-1 1-4 0-1 0-1 0-2 0-2 1-4

0% ended a draw


Hull last game at home in the PL when they conceded the opening goal in the 0-20 minutes time band that ended a draw



Sat 21/11/09 PRL Hull City
3 - 3
West Ham United View events More info
0 - 1
5' G. Franco
0 - 2
11' J. Collison
C. Cole (OG) 27'
1 - 2
K. Zayatte 44'
2 - 2
J. Bullard (PG) 44'
3 - 2
3 - 3
69' M. da Costa

[jonnyg]

last season in the Premier League in games where the away teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-20 minutes time band , 76% ended over 2.5 and 46% ended over 3.5 goals.

Both teams scored in 73% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 75%

The home teams won 13%, 25% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 62%

0-1 half time added to the early away goal metric in the Premier League and in general lowered expectation of the home teams fighting back and winning even if they are the perceived stronger team.

The early away goal in the Premier League and 1-1 half time game state and in general lowered expectation of the away teams winning the second half even if they are the perceived stronger team.



GAME PATHWAY

6/63 0-1 FT

29/63 > 1-1 <> 7-13-9 away teams won 31%

28/63 > 0-2 <> 1-3-24 away teams won 86%

[jonnyg]

2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016
Games 45 54 69 62 69 65 59 63
Over 2.5 % 73% 69% 71% 69% 81% 74% 75% 76%
Over3.5% 40% 41% 41% 42% 61% 55% 42% 46%
0-1 HT % Over 2.5 53% 30% 54% 38.50% 61% 55% 48% 50%
0-1 HT Away W% 58% 65% 58% 81% 48% 69% 95% 69%
0-1 HT Draw % 26% 22% 29% 11% 35% 21% 0% 19%
0-1 HT Home % 16% 13% 13% 8% 17% 10% 5% 12%
1-1 HT Away W% 27% 8% 15% 33% 30% 25% 13% 31%
Goal 80+ 42% 46% 45% 50% 33% 46% 44% 38%
Home Win 20% 33% 22% 13% 23% 25% 22% 13%
Draw 27% 24% 29% 15% 28% 18% 17% 25%
Away Win 53% 43% 49% 72% 49% 57% 61% 62%
BTTS YES 69% 78% 78% 68% 85.50% 69% 71% 73%
over 1.5 FH 58% 57% 65% 58% 67% 55% 66% 75%



above is data 08-09 to 15-16 where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 in the PL <

[jonnyg]

if you look above you will see a high BTTS YES % season on season in the PL in games where the away team open the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band < the reason is because of expectation of the home team fighting back with the caveat that 0-1 HT goal 0-20 minutes in the PL and in general you will see lowered expectation of the home team fighting back