Arsenal since 2003-2004 in the Premier League at home have conceded the opening goal in the 0-20 minutes time band in 24 games and only lost 4/24 (17%) and in general we can see that when Arsenal concede the early goal metric at home ( opening goal 0-20 minutes ) that there will be expectation that Arsenal will “fightback’ and we see that Arsenal scored in 100% of the games.
Arsenal scored the 2nd goal of the game in 18/24 ( 75% ) and when they scored the 2nd goal of the game only Chelsea won.
T HT FT Goal 80 +
Arsenal Watford 10 0 2 1 2
Arsenal Southampton 18 1 1 2 1 90
Arsenal Man City 18 0 1 1 1
Arsenal Swansea 11 0 1 2 2 90
Arsenal Liverpool 5 0 1 2 2
Arsenal West Ham 18 1 1 5 1
Arsenal Spurs 10 3 1 5 2 90
Arsenal Chelsea 20 1 1 1 2
Arsenal Wigan 7 1 2 1 2
Arsenal Newcastle 14 1 1 2 1 90
Arsenal Spurs 4 2 2 5 2
Arsenal Villa 11 0 2 1 2 90
Arsenal Bolton 7 1 2 4 2 85
Arsenal Everton 12 1 1 2 2 81 90
Arsenal Blackburn 4 3 2 6 2 89
Arsenal Spurs 13 1 1 4 4 89 90
Arsenal Everton 9 0 1 3 1 90
Arsenal Fulham 1 0 1 2 1 83 90
Arsenal Bolton 10 1 1 2 1
Arsenal Blackburn 3 3 1 6 2 85 88 90
Arsenal Bolton 12 0 1 1 1 90
Arsenal Villa 3 2 1 3 1
Arsenal Liverpool 5 1 2 4 2
Arsenal Spurs 5 0 1 2 1
Arsenal conceding the opening goal at home in the 0-20 minute time band in the PL
at 0-1 Arsenal were offered at 11/10 to score goal 2 and `city at 8/11 to score goal 2
Arsenal last 25 home game when conceding the opening goal in 0-20 minutes time band scored goal 2 in 19/25 = 1/3
this is known as game state analysis which I invented = looking at game pathway as time decays in a game given the time of the opening goal
Arsenal last 25 home game when conceding the opening goal in 0-20 minutes time band scored goal 2 in 19/25 = 1/3
this is known as game state analysis which I invented = looking at game pathway as time decays in a game given the time of the opening goal
Arsenal last 25 home games in the PL when conceding the opening goal in the 0-20 time band
scored in 25/25 and only lost 4/25
and the icing on the cake was < have a look at the opening goal by the away team 0-20 and 1-2 HT game state in the PL < what you will see is lowered expectation of the away team winning the 2nd half <
at HT the asian handicap betting was
0 with Arsenal @1.95 and City @1.95 which was way out of line because of lowered expectation of City winning the 2nd half given the first half events <
scored in 25/25 and only lost 4/25
and the icing on the cake was < have a look at the opening goal by the away team 0-20 and 1-2 HT game state in the PL < what you will see is lowered expectation of the away team winning the 2nd half <
at HT the asian handicap betting was
0 with Arsenal @1.95 and City @1.95 which was way out of line because of lowered expectation of City winning the 2nd half given the first half events <
The Effect of the Early Away Goal and 1-2 Half Time Game State in the Premier League
In the table below I have added the last 27 games in the Premier League where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes and the half time game state was 1-2 and 56% ended over 4.5 goals ( 1/0.56 = 4/5 )
6-8-13 < the away teams won 48% , 1/0.48 = 11/10 < at half time Man City were offered ( at Arsenal ) @4/9
The away teams won the second half of the games in the table below in only 22% < there was a MONSTER edge in the Arsenal v Man City game which I highlighted at HT on my thread because both Arsenal and Manchester City were offered on the asian handicap ( 0 ) @1.95 = betting on the outcome of the 2nd half ( with the 2nd half ending a draw = money back = Push ) , and we can see that the price of Arsenal ( 0 ) should have been much shorter then the price that City ( 0 ) was offered at.
63% of the games in the table below produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
T HT FT Goal 80 +
Arsenal Man City 5 1 2 2 2
Boro WHU 9 1 2 1 3 90
Man UTD Man City 15 1 2 1 2
Sunderland Chelsea 14 1 2 3 2
Villa Southampton 15 1 2 2 4 85 90
Bournemouth Chelsea 5 1 2 1 4 90
Everton Swansea 17 1 2 1 2
Newcastle Man UTD 9 1 2 3 3 90
Everton Stoke 16 1 2 3 4 80 90
Man City West Ham 6 1 2 1 2
QPR West Brom 10 1 2 3 2 86
Stoke Burnley 12 1 2 1 2
Burnley Everton 4 1 2 1 3 85
Leicester Man UTD 13 1 2 5 3 83
Everton Chelsea 1 1 2 3 6 90
Leicester Everton 20 1 2 2 2 86
Spurs Southampton 19 1 2 3 2 90
West Ham Newcastle 16 1 2 1 3 90
Sunderland Southampton 4 1 2 2 2
Cardiff Man UTD 15 1 2 2 2 90
Everton Liverpool 5 1 2 3 3 82 90
Man UTD Stoke 4 1 2 3 2 80
Sunderland Fulham 16 1 2 2 2
Everton Villa 2 1 2 3 3 90
Norwich Man City 2 1 2 3 4
Man UTD Newcastle 4 1 2 4 3 90
Chelsea Man UTD 4 1 2 2 3
In the table below I have added the last 27 games in the Premier League where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes and the half time game state was 1-2 and 56% ended over 4.5 goals ( 1/0.56 = 4/5 )
6-8-13 < the away teams won 48% , 1/0.48 = 11/10 < at half time Man City were offered ( at Arsenal ) @4/9
The away teams won the second half of the games in the table below in only 22% < there was a MONSTER edge in the Arsenal v Man City game which I highlighted at HT on my thread because both Arsenal and Manchester City were offered on the asian handicap ( 0 ) @1.95 = betting on the outcome of the 2nd half ( with the 2nd half ending a draw = money back = Push ) , and we can see that the price of Arsenal ( 0 ) should have been much shorter then the price that City ( 0 ) was offered at.
63% of the games in the table below produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
T HT FT Goal 80 +
Arsenal Man City 5 1 2 2 2
Boro WHU 9 1 2 1 3 90
Man UTD Man City 15 1 2 1 2
Sunderland Chelsea 14 1 2 3 2
Villa Southampton 15 1 2 2 4 85 90
Bournemouth Chelsea 5 1 2 1 4 90
Everton Swansea 17 1 2 1 2
Newcastle Man UTD 9 1 2 3 3 90
Everton Stoke 16 1 2 3 4 80 90
Man City West Ham 6 1 2 1 2
QPR West Brom 10 1 2 3 2 86
Stoke Burnley 12 1 2 1 2
Burnley Everton 4 1 2 1 3 85
Leicester Man UTD 13 1 2 5 3 83
Everton Chelsea 1 1 2 3 6 90
Leicester Everton 20 1 2 2 2 86
Spurs Southampton 19 1 2 3 2 90
West Ham Newcastle 16 1 2 1 3 90
Sunderland Southampton 4 1 2 2 2
Cardiff Man UTD 15 1 2 2 2 90
Everton Liverpool 5 1 2 3 3 82 90
Man UTD Stoke 4 1 2 3 2 80
Sunderland Fulham 16 1 2 2 2
Everton Villa 2 1 2 3 3 90
Norwich Man City 2 1 2 3 4
Man UTD Newcastle 4 1 2 4 3 90
Chelsea Man UTD 4 1 2 2 3
