Laying a horse 5-10 mins before the off

[CaptainMak]

Hi all,

I like to lay a horse before the off and see if i can trade out of it before the race starts, however it seems someone is watching my every move ,as the price seems to move in drastically as soon as i lay it? More often than not.. additionally this is not the only very strange thing that happens to me whilst trading.

Is it because im usually laying horses around the same price? It feels like there are traps being laid and a fall into them too easily. Then all of a sudden your in play praying that it goes your way..

Any advice would be appreciated

thanks

[ajdal]

Examples?

[CaptainMak]

hi,

well an example would be if i lay a horse at 6.6 for £50 and it goes into 5.6 just before the off and then im always unsure then wether to chase the loss and green out in play.

thanks

[ajdal]

6.6 is frighteningly near the crossover point... it is cheaper to push a price in than push it out... personally, I would never lay a horse at 6.6 unless I had a VERY, VERY good reason to think it will drift out...

also late money tends to be clever money... take the loss, don't go in play unless you are very confident it will lose... in which case don't even green out if the opportunity arises until it goes right out....

Always think Risk/Reward.

[Anna List]

"6.6 is frighteningly near the crossover point... it is cheaper to push a price in than push it out..."

Ajdal

Please

What is a "cross-over point"?

Why is it cheaper to push a price in than to push it out?

Anna

[ajdal]

Imagine a horse was trading 110/120 and there was £50 on each side and the same amount at 100 and 130 and there were just 2 of us playing the market on either side (for simplicity)... without movement no-one can make any money.... so if I took the £50 @ 110 and the £50 @ 100 and put £200 on 100 I have outlayed £100 with £200 pending... but the poor bugger I took the trade from is sitting with about a £10,000 liability... that is the mentality behind trading... If I can then push the price to 95 then 90 how desperate is the the trader on the other side going to become (if they are indeed a trader??)... they either have to accept an additional £20,000 liabilty to scare me off and hope they can still trade out at a higher price or accept the loss... it gets slightly more complicated because you can offset the loss using various techniques and loss management, but that is still the basic approach that all traders are taking... That said many times a trader/bot is sitting on both sides of the book and then moves the market dependant on liability... it can sometimes be very obvious when they are loading up...

The crossover point is where the prices shift into a different step...ie 5.8,5.9,6.0,6.2... if you watch the markets, very often you can see them trying to force a price to one of these points (or just past)... regardless of whether it is a value price or not.... and therein lies opportunity... In the example the OP gave, where is the nearest crossover point 6.0 or 10.0... it's unlikely they will push for 10.0.... that doesn't mean it won't drift... just that it may not be the best candidate...

This is my experience anyway...

[Bluesky]

What is a "cross-over point"?

I think it was Peter W that coined this phrase, I seem to remember seeing a video on you tube about it. I think he was driving passed a road sign that said crossover when he thought of it. Take a quick look on youtube it should be easy to find.

[Anna List]

Imagine a horse was trading 110/120 and there was £50 on each side and the same amount at 100 and 130 and there were just 2 of us playing the market on either side (for simplicity)... without movement no-one can make any money.... so if I took the £50 @ 110 and the £50 @ 100 and put £200 on 100 I have outlayed £100 with £200 pending... but the poor bugger I took the trade from is sitting with about a £10,000 liability... that is the mentality behind trading... If I can then push the price to 95 then 90 how desperate is the the trader on the other side going to become (if they are indeed a trader??)... they either have to accept an additional £20,000 liabilty to scare me off and hope they can still trade out at a higher price or accept the loss... it gets slightly more complicated because you can offset the loss using various techniques and loss management, but that is still the basic approach that all traders are taking... That said many times a trader/bot is sitting on both sides of the book and then moves the market dependant on liability... it can sometimes be very obvious when they are loading up...

The crossover point is where the prices shift into a different step...ie 5.8,5.9,6.0,6.2... if you watch the markets, very often you can see them trying to force a price to one of these points (or just past)... regardless of whether it is a value price or not.... and therein lies opportunity... In the example the OP gave, where is the nearest crossover point 6.0 or 10.0... it's unlikely they will push for 10.0.... that doesn't mean it won't drift... just that it may not be the best candidate...

This is my experience anyway...

Ajdal

My thanks.

Anna

[Bluesky]

Hi all,

I like to lay a horse before the off and see if i can trade out of it before the race starts, however it seems someone is watching my every move ,as the price seems to move in drastically as soon as i lay it? More often than not.. additionally this is not the only very strange thing that happens to me whilst trading.

What reasons do you have for laying the horse that you choose to lay, are you using technical analysis (charts, indicators etc) are you using form, are you studying the TV pics and you know something about horses, or are you just sort of guessing.

If its the last one in the list, then that just might be the reason your not doing too well.

[ShaunWhite]

Hi all,
,as the price seems to move in drastically as soon as i lay it? More often than not..

I see this so often, people identify a pattern and then curse the market it because it doesn't suit their idea of what should happen. Any quantifiable 'more often than not' situation you identify is gold dust.

But I think you might need to keep better stats, 'seems to' and 'more often than not' are two very subjective conclusions. Your trading psycology homework will tell you that the human brain is useless at judging what's happened over the course of the 3 or 400 races you'll need to prove whether or not your strategy is sound.

Then all of a sudden your in play praying that it goes your way..

Why would an adverse move make you do this? I don't want to know, but you need to ask yourself that. I wouldn't worry about this alleged conspiracy to make your trades fail until you can control your going in-play. You're going to get in-play losses that make the pre-play losses look like a wins.

I'm sure you know this, but as a reminder, you should only be going in-play if it was in your strategy when you opened the trade. You have an entry plan, and an exit plan. If you're choosing to re-writting the exit plan half way through a trade, then you must have a hell of a lot of confidence in your skills.

[Anna List]

Hi all,

I like to lay a horse ...

... additionally this is not the only very strange thing that happens to me whilst trading.

...Then all of a sudden your in play praying that it goes your way..

Any advice would be appreciated

thanks

Captain Mac

I'm very puzzled and perhaps you could help me out here.

You state that you like to lay horses. Then you state "... whilst trading".

So, are you a layer or a trader?

If a layer, then there should be no surprise that the race goes in-play.

If a trader, then you should have exited the trade BEFORE the race goes in-play from what little I know about trading. The reason for this is that trading is based on odds movements, not on the horse's ability. The outcome of a race is based on the horse's ability, not on its odds movements.

Also, if you think that the horse is going to lose, why are you trading out?

If you think that the horse is going to win, why are you laying it and then letting it go in-play without trading out?

You need, I would suggest, to look at the THEORETICAL p/l of your selections when you lay and then let them all go in play. Do you win or lose?

If you win, why trade out? Just lay 'em.

If you lose, then you should trade out, even for a loss, before the race goes in-play.

Hope this helps.

Anna

[CaptainMak]

Hi all again,

thankyou all to the advice shared on this post, for a newbie like myself its really helpful.
Learning all the time thanks.

[Frogmella]

The crossover points are shown on the ladder. In the odds list, in the centre. they are the odds numbers written in red. They are often points of support or resistance during price movements.

[ShaunWhite]

The crossover points are shown on the ladder. In the odds list, in the centre. they are the odds numbers written in red. They are often points of support or resistance during price movements.

Other crossover points occur at the decimal equivalent of traditional odds steps. These are more significant IMHO. It's only really traders who care about step size changes to any significant degree.

[Bluesky]

Other crossover points occur at the decimal equivalent of traditional odds steps. These are more significant IMHO. It's only really traders who care about step size changes to any significant degree.

I think PW made reference to other significant price points in addition to the traditional crossover points in a post a little while ago. I assumed at the time that he was probably talking about these and also perhaps recent and not so recent support and resistance levels.

The problem I have is that if your not careful you can start to see significance in price points all over the ladder and end up either over trading, or not taking good signals because of a very near by price point that might stop the trade in its tracks.

One thing I really find difficult to work out, in lots of trades is who is moving the market is it traders or is it genuine punters. I have a feeling that this is also dependant on how much time there is left before the off, and also what type of race it is.

I have seen posts by people who seem to know what they are talking about and they will say things like there wasn't much punters money about today, it was mainly traders. I would really like to know how one can work this out, what are the tell tail signs that indicate when this is what is happening.