Would this help?

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greety
Posts: 159
Joined: Wed May 16, 2012 7:16 pm

I know this is going to be frowned upon by many (pennies in front of steamrollers etc) but it's been working reasonably well for me. However I have been caught twice, and I am trying to eliminate some of the risk.
What I have been doing is waiting for any horse that has traded at odds on, to drift to over 15.0 in the closing stages of a race. In the last week I have been caught twice but I was wondering if a WOM condition would have helped.
I'm only using two pound stakes but tbh sitting in front of my PC all afternoon for £10/20 isn't what I want to do. To automate this I'm guessing I would use a Relative odds condition LTP less then 15.00 but how do I set a WOM condition and how do I make sure it only applies to horses that have traded odds on? And what WOM % would the more experienced traders use? I'm guessing a very high percentage.
I know this is more gambling than trading but in two years of using Betangel this is the most consistent run of profit I've found. perhaps I just don't have the imagination to find a less risky "edge". And believe me, I've downloaded most of the bots and tweaked them all.
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Dallas
Posts: 23494
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm

I have no idea if the WOM will help but if you want it automating it quiet straight forward, i assume you laying if it drifts over 15 having traded below 2s earlier?
greety
Posts: 159
Joined: Wed May 16, 2012 7:16 pm

That's right Dallas that's what I wanted. But isn't it typical.
This afternoon I got caught again early on at Thirsk and had another near miss later.
So I guess it's back to the drawing board again! If I'm honest, I always knew this was risky.
Thanks for replying anyway.
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gazuty
Posts: 2553
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am

greety wrote:
Sun Apr 30, 2017 1:45 pm
I know this is going to be frowned upon by many (pennies in front of steamrollers etc) but it's been working reasonably well for me. However I have been caught twice, and I am trying to eliminate some of the risk.
You guessed what I would say. Reducing risk is the way to go if you can find parameters that indicate when not to reach for the penny. (I'd never risk 30 to make 2. I'd rather risk 2 to make 2.)
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