Hi Everyone,
I am a newbie, I'm trying to focus on one strategy at a time to start and I'm looking at trading the favourite before the off.
I've been trying to place back bets on the favourite at what I think is the top of the current price range but often it goes against me and the layers push the price upwards to a point I feel uncomfortable with. I'm using £10 stakes to start so whilst a £5 loss is not massive in percentage terms (50%) it is!
Can anyone tell me if there is a relationship between the price of the favourite and the number of runners in a race?
For example if there is a 6 horse race and the favourite is price at 1.8 how low will the market back it? Is there a general consensus say 1.5 is the lowest or is it 1.3? or 1.7?
Any thoughts would be welcome.
Thanks
Dave
Relationship between lowest odds and number of horses in race
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
There is a yes and no answer to your question.
Technically any price can go as far as it likes. Although unlikely. But technically yes if a horse is priced 1.8 in a 6 runner race not very often it would go lower then say 1.5. This however has nothing to do with field size.
If your looking to back or lay at places where you think its the bottom or top there are a number of things I would advise you to learn or think of.
1. Why do you think its at the bottom or top?
2. What indicators are telling me? For example... if you see a lot of volume suddenly slow up this could be a sign its come to the end. Which side of the book is the money being taken. This for me is the most powerful indicator you can use. Happens on so many races everyday. You come to a market and you can see one side being favoured for taking money.. a good few minutes of this happening. However due to the amount of time left (lets say 8 minutes until the off) you wait until it is a little closer to post time or for when the volume hits the market. All of a sudden the price moves in the other direction... it does eventually end up going the way you original thought. It can be noise or manipulation but it happens a lot.
Sit and watch markets, see what side most of the money is being matched... usually it will eventually end up in that direction. But you have to manage your risk..
3.What is happening with the other runners? If a horse opened up at 1.8 and is now 1.5. If the 2nd/3rd/4th is drifting then it will most definitely continue to come in.
4. You have to be on your game. A good top or bottom can suddenly change. Act on what you see. If your in what you think is the top... it could well be, but it only takes something to make that not the top... another horse taking a gamble. It only takes one large backer on another runner..
But in theory I complete understand what you say and your right... a horse that was 1.8 in a 6 runner race thats now 1.5 is likely to be the bottom.
The great thing is... if thats your thinking you already have a good feel for the market... so what will you do at 1.5? You should wait or do nothing.
Right... its moved from 1.8 to 1.5 and I think thats too low.. I want to see money for another runner before I jump on etc... additionally if thats your thinking it also means if the money still comes and it continues to get lower then 1.5 I simply will not open a back trade because I think it is high risk.
Your theory is a great stepping stone for a very good trade but it requires you to accept losses and to use indicators with them. There is no set rule that a 6 runner race will not move such and such. If there was I would be very very wealthy.
Technically any price can go as far as it likes. Although unlikely. But technically yes if a horse is priced 1.8 in a 6 runner race not very often it would go lower then say 1.5. This however has nothing to do with field size.
If your looking to back or lay at places where you think its the bottom or top there are a number of things I would advise you to learn or think of.
1. Why do you think its at the bottom or top?
2. What indicators are telling me? For example... if you see a lot of volume suddenly slow up this could be a sign its come to the end. Which side of the book is the money being taken. This for me is the most powerful indicator you can use. Happens on so many races everyday. You come to a market and you can see one side being favoured for taking money.. a good few minutes of this happening. However due to the amount of time left (lets say 8 minutes until the off) you wait until it is a little closer to post time or for when the volume hits the market. All of a sudden the price moves in the other direction... it does eventually end up going the way you original thought. It can be noise or manipulation but it happens a lot.
Sit and watch markets, see what side most of the money is being matched... usually it will eventually end up in that direction. But you have to manage your risk..
3.What is happening with the other runners? If a horse opened up at 1.8 and is now 1.5. If the 2nd/3rd/4th is drifting then it will most definitely continue to come in.
4. You have to be on your game. A good top or bottom can suddenly change. Act on what you see. If your in what you think is the top... it could well be, but it only takes something to make that not the top... another horse taking a gamble. It only takes one large backer on another runner..
But in theory I complete understand what you say and your right... a horse that was 1.8 in a 6 runner race thats now 1.5 is likely to be the bottom.
The great thing is... if thats your thinking you already have a good feel for the market... so what will you do at 1.5? You should wait or do nothing.
Right... its moved from 1.8 to 1.5 and I think thats too low.. I want to see money for another runner before I jump on etc... additionally if thats your thinking it also means if the money still comes and it continues to get lower then 1.5 I simply will not open a back trade because I think it is high risk.
Your theory is a great stepping stone for a very good trade but it requires you to accept losses and to use indicators with them. There is no set rule that a 6 runner race will not move such and such. If there was I would be very very wealthy.
Thanks Seahorse,
I discussed this with another trader outside of this forum and he said similar that it is not the number of horses but the weight of money or perhaps the amount of money matched that should be a more important consideration, amongst other things.
I'm building a data spread sheet and recording trades over the next month to look for patterns between various factors. I'll lower my stake to 5'er whilst I test this. I feel I need the real money element to avoid trading outside of goals.
In answer to your questions:
1. I don't know yet - I hope that with more screen time looking at a specific strategy, I'll be able to record what happens in each race and identify approximate ranges.
2. Which side is the money on...this is interesting....from what I have seen so far there is often big chunks on the lay side and yet the back money whilst smaller can still plough on through. It is also difficult at present to understand how much money on each side of the market is more thant he other!! I suppose this will also come with screen time.
3. Yes other runners will be built into my data
4. I need to think about my stop loss placement - this will help with the risk management.
Once again thanks for your help.
DK
I discussed this with another trader outside of this forum and he said similar that it is not the number of horses but the weight of money or perhaps the amount of money matched that should be a more important consideration, amongst other things.
I'm building a data spread sheet and recording trades over the next month to look for patterns between various factors. I'll lower my stake to 5'er whilst I test this. I feel I need the real money element to avoid trading outside of goals.
In answer to your questions:
1. I don't know yet - I hope that with more screen time looking at a specific strategy, I'll be able to record what happens in each race and identify approximate ranges.
2. Which side is the money on...this is interesting....from what I have seen so far there is often big chunks on the lay side and yet the back money whilst smaller can still plough on through. It is also difficult at present to understand how much money on each side of the market is more thant he other!! I suppose this will also come with screen time.
3. Yes other runners will be built into my data
4. I need to think about my stop loss placement - this will help with the risk management.
Once again thanks for your help.
DK