your productivity compared to others
I think the idea of posting the results was in order to illustrate something rather than provide anyone with a money making system. The experiment shows the importance of setting prices and how even when it looks like the market is going one way possibly against you, the inherent volatility of these markets shows that most of the time you will be matched. Anything that can get you thinking about the markets in a different way is very useful IMO
My daily productivity is about 2.5%
It sounds rubbish, but it is a profit. Whenever I've got a little greedy and tried to increase my returns, it invariably ends in disaster!
I also reduced my liabilities on each market, because I was making the exact mistake Peter was referring to, it's easy to panic and jump ship with a small loss when the market turns against you. On many occassions, had I waited, the market would have gone back to my initial position.
So now, I'm happy to wait a little longer
It sounds rubbish, but it is a profit. Whenever I've got a little greedy and tried to increase my returns, it invariably ends in disaster!
I also reduced my liabilities on each market, because I was making the exact mistake Peter was referring to, it's easy to panic and jump ship with a small loss when the market turns against you. On many occassions, had I waited, the market would have gone back to my initial position.
So now, I'm happy to wait a little longer
My mistake. Apparantly the lesson everybody seems to be learning from this, is to never trade out until you are in profit or out of time. Not sure what issues I was seeing to be honest.
Note 1. Never take a loss. It will always come back at some point to put me in profit.
Note 1. Never take a loss. It will always come back at some point to put me in profit.
mugsgame wrote:This is getting more like the BF forum everyday,
Some people want to provoke debate and help others. Then there are ones who just want to argue. They never contribute anything positive. Just because they can't make it work or they can't understand it.
Sickening really
I find it very interesting what BetAngel has posted here, and thats why I wanted to run my own experiment, to see if I could replicate their results and learn more about the markets, not to argue or belittle what they are doing.
I do agree a bit with Brent tho, that mixed messages are being sent. One the one hand, people say that the golden rule for trading is cut your losses, on the other hand, if you leave your trade then there is a good likelyhood it will get matched( although it is stated that you wont make much money that way).
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I do agree a bit with Brent tho, that mixed messages are being sent. One the one hand, people say that the golden rule for trading is cut your losses, on the other hand, if you leave your trade then there is a good likelyhood it will get matched( although it is stated that you wont make much money that way).[/quote]
I know what you mean, but whether you cut your losses or wait for it to come back will depend on whether you are scalping vs swing trading and more importantly what kind of market you are in. In highly volatile markets cutting your losses is imperative whereas say you are just scalping in a market where the prices are operating in a tight band then you are far more likely to get your original price matched if you are patient
I do agree a bit with Brent tho, that mixed messages are being sent. One the one hand, people say that the golden rule for trading is cut your losses, on the other hand, if you leave your trade then there is a good likelyhood it will get matched( although it is stated that you wont make much money that way).[/quote]
I know what you mean, but whether you cut your losses or wait for it to come back will depend on whether you are scalping vs swing trading and more importantly what kind of market you are in. In highly volatile markets cutting your losses is imperative whereas say you are just scalping in a market where the prices are operating in a tight band then you are far more likely to get your original price matched if you are patient
Messed around with "random" trading today, will hopefully get excel to be able to do it for me soon, but the results I had over a few races with £2 stakes are:_
-0.15
-0.42
+0.26
-0.10
-0.17
+0.09
-0.25
-0.57
-0.10
for a net result of -1.41, almost 3/4s of my stake.
maybe it wasnt random enough and I was subconsciously picking the worst side, eg backing at the bottom, or backing a drifter, hopefully if I get excel working I will see different results.
I dont see how this can be anywhere near break even tho, as your possible downside is way bigger than your upside of 1 tick.
-0.15
-0.42
+0.26
-0.10
-0.17
+0.09
-0.25
-0.57
-0.10
for a net result of -1.41, almost 3/4s of my stake.
maybe it wasnt random enough and I was subconsciously picking the worst side, eg backing at the bottom, or backing a drifter, hopefully if I get excel working I will see different results.
I dont see how this can be anywhere near break even tho, as your possible downside is way bigger than your upside of 1 tick.
I don't agree with using a set stake amount, it gives a different risk for every set of odds you trade. But, with your results, and my results, it just backs up that random does not neccessarily mean random.neeeel wrote:Messed around with "random" trading today, will hopefully get excel to be able to do it for me soon, but the results I had over a few races with £2 stakes are:_
-0.15
-0.42
+0.26
-0.10
-0.17
+0.09
-0.25
-0.57
-0.10
for a net result of -1.41, almost 3/4s of my stake.
maybe it wasnt random enough and I was subconsciously picking the worst side, eg backing at the bottom, or backing a drifter, hopefully if I get excel working I will see different results.
I dont see how this can be anywhere near break even tho, as your possible downside is way bigger than your upside of 1 tick.
Unless you have a strict set of rules once your trade has started, most of the results will come down to skill.
I am not trying to argue with anybody here, but if something is not accurate, then why shouldn't i say something about it?
The only thing I can guarantee, is that placing random trades in, and only going for 1 tick profits, will NEVER get you a 75% return in the 1 race, unless you are trading an 800-1 shot. A claim made, when the p/l posted included a 1.50+ winning trade.
It is all good trying to see what the markets are up to by "random" trading, but unless the conditions of the trading is consistant, the information receieved will be less than what is expected. And unless the trades are all to the same liability, or at least converted later, the results won't mean anything.
Trading at random wasn't a one way road to riches, just that is less negative than people make out. All you are trying to do is tip things in your favour and random trading will show you a lot, including how low that bar is. Take from it what you will.
No human intervention has produced the results. The automation entered at random and the only thing it does is try and keep the net stake in balance. By not putting in new orders when the net stake is out and putting new orders in to complete a trade.
No human intervention has produced the results. The automation entered at random and the only thing it does is try and keep the net stake in balance. By not putting in new orders when the net stake is out and putting new orders in to complete a trade.
I have managed to get excel to put in random bets, and close them when taken. Ran it on a few races today, am finding it interesting to watch how often the market does come back, and it is giving me new insights, or at least making me think about how the market is working, and how I am going to use this information, which is good
Good post. Isn't this the whole point of what Peter and the BA team wanted to acheieve? Helping you understand how the market reacts. This is fundermental in being successful.neeeel wrote:I have managed to get excel to put in random bets, and close them when taken. Ran it on a few races today, am finding it interesting to watch how often the market does come back, and it is giving me new insights, or at least making me think about how the market is working, and how I am going to use this information, which is good
I read somewhere that Ed Murray (who is apprantly one of the top tennis traders) was asked about his success. He said for the first year he didn't place a bet. Just watched to understand how the market moved and why. Once he had the knowledge and strategy he kicked ass. We are lucky nowadays because there are people around like Peter Webb who have done the hard work and analysis and can point us in the right direction.
tried again today, same result
The thing is, you cant " cut your losses and let your profits run", since you wont know which trades will come back and be completed, and which ones will head off in the opposite direction. If you start cutting out a lot of the trades that have gone against you, then you take your strike rate down, which takes me back to where I started.
The thing is, you cant " cut your losses and let your profits run", since you wont know which trades will come back and be completed, and which ones will head off in the opposite direction. If you start cutting out a lot of the trades that have gone against you, then you take your strike rate down, which takes me back to where I started.
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Hi,
personally i think any advice/information that is offered up by Peter or the Bet Angel team should be taken in the context that it is given - that of help in educating those of us that haven't yet got to the point of regular profits. I for one didn't fully understand the last point made by Bet Angel and would welcome a more detailed explaination. But, just because i didn't fully understand doesn't mean what's being said is complete tosh and deserved of some of the irate comments and rants that i've read so far on this thread ! Let's all keep an open mind and be willing to accept any advice that is offered by those that are already at the point we're all working towards.
personally i think any advice/information that is offered up by Peter or the Bet Angel team should be taken in the context that it is given - that of help in educating those of us that haven't yet got to the point of regular profits. I for one didn't fully understand the last point made by Bet Angel and would welcome a more detailed explaination. But, just because i didn't fully understand doesn't mean what's being said is complete tosh and deserved of some of the irate comments and rants that i've read so far on this thread ! Let's all keep an open mind and be willing to accept any advice that is offered by those that are already at the point we're all working towards.