Today's Horse Racing

[dragontrades]

That drift hurt quite a bit.

[Thebest147]

That drift hurt quite a bit.

Why did it hurt? surely that big spike in volume was a good clue as to were the price would go,
If you have a spare 1hour,take a look at the chart of the day thread,better still just view all Euler posts on the chart of the day thread,the pattern would be wait till big volume spikes ,and if you miss out,wait till reversal and then jump on the trend,

now I am no peter webb and this is only an opinion

[SeaHorseRacing]

Well in this case he's given something for free as I know a lot of people would pay for that kind of stuff. And you've got to remember horses aren't machines, they might be training really well but might not put it all together on race day, but at 9/1 you'd take a chance.

I cant please everyone and I am gracious for your kind words.

When people truly understand the logistics of horse racing you can appreciate and understand how powerful inside information is.

Just as I have a few minutes to explain I will for anyone interested.

A race horse can only maintain peak fitness for approx 6- 8 weeks.
When a racehorse is in peak fitness there hard food consumption will out weigh there hay consumption.
A horse is a grazing animal and to get a racehorse to maintain stamina and speed it requires hard food. Not grass or hay.
Just from knowing that single fact you can already understand why inside information works.

Lets pretend a heavyweight boxer... If you knew that they have been training the last 6 weeks mainly consuming water and fats- no protein or carbohydrates you would think twice about the full capability and fitness wouldn't you?

Only high quality racehorses can maintain physical peak and the reason why is because of there confirmation and physique.

The best race horses are well balance, strong boned, well muscled animals. This is why well bred horses are worth so much money.
If you used your boxer against an average joe in the street he will probably win every time, regardless of his diet and fitness routine. But if he was to have a professional fight he probably struggle.

The most important thing in horse racing is class then fitness.

Just like a human, someone who comes from a family with poor physical confirmation are going to struggle to stay fit. Whereas someone athletic looking, good natural posture are likely to be naturally better at sports and stay fit.

When a race horse has peaked to optimum physique and after they have finished that cycle it can take 6-12 weeks until they can get back into that same condition. Sometimes much longer... additionally problems can occur. Very often your see horses form like so 11111 and then they dont see a track for 3/400 days. That could likely be an effect of there strenuous diet which can lead to all sorts of problems.

The reason why race horses or horses in general can only peak for such a small period is mainly because of there gut. You hear of horses dying from colic quite often. Horses are grazing animals, this is because the way there stomachs and digestive systems work. Horses can not correctly digest food especially hard food. Horses graze because they physically cannot eat large meal consumption's.
Feeding your horse hard feeds for peak fitness all year round is impossible. There are many many other reasons but just a brief and simple explanation.

Additionally horses are herd animals. They like to race and are better performed running in their preferred style. Most horses run roughly the same way in each race.. you would expect anyway. Knowing this puts trainers at advantage.

The tip I gave you today.
Check all its previous runs...
Held up
In the rear
Stone last...

It had no form whatsoever yet today it pressed the leader? This will automatically tell you the trainer was trying to win.

Why would a horse that couldn't even finish a race be stepped up another 4f and try and take the lead?

Believe it or not.. Less then 30% of horses are trying in a single race. Take in a maiden race and that is around 25%.

The information I received is only telling me that that the horse is fit, prepared and trying to win a race.

It is important to also remember that around 20% of horses that win races their jockeys were trying NOT to win.

I have been racing and seen first hand a jockey groveling to the trainer- apologising because there was nothing he could do. The horse was bang there jumping the last and he had to finish the race to win. A jockey that has no intention to win a race will still win the race if the horse is in the finish. There be banned if they didnt.

What I can say though is the very top trainers are working a different ball game to the remaining 90% of trainers. They have the ammunition, they want as many winners as they possibly can. If your getting 8% prize money and championship trophy's your aim to train a winner. Additionally they get sent the best horses.

Alot of the time your find trainers trying everything and anything to get an improvement out of a horse. Horses are not exact science. Thats why you see horses get smashed of the board and three races down the line they finally have a winner. The same with a visor or blinkers... Sometimes they win first time out but mostly it takes a good few runs.

Additionally headgear is any easy way to cover your ass in front of the stewards. When they have a horse win with no form its very easy to say the headgear was the reason for the improved form.

Next time you see V1 or B1 next to a horses form, rather then think they are going to win today... look at it as the trainer is either planning a win or finding out what the horse needs to win. Or this is a cover up because they believe they have a strong chance today and it covers there ass for the win they have planned. However there are genuine occasions when they are applied for there main purpose.

The way horse racing is designed, it is designed to work this way and this is why the BHA are so strict on inside information. If you ever visit a racing stables keep your eye out for the privileged information posters that yards must have up.

Why is giving privileged information against the rules but at the same time they condone race fixing? Who knows but mainly down because they way a horse works only makes racing work the way it runs.

I only give the information out because I like to see people win. I dont do it to look great. Dont get me wrong tipping a winner makes you feel good but I generally believe people should be allowed access to this information. I wont rant about the reasons why, but I believe this sport could be run a different way.

If we all had access to the information... most race would go off with a 1/5 favourite...

Ive worked in 4 racing yards in the last three years. I have to close friends who are jockeys and some other friends are owners.

Before trading I invested a lot of time into gambling on the racing and what i didn't do was invest in me, money management and mindset. Completely clueless. I love trading and it has me hooked... but I am not finished with betting either but my focus is trading at the moment.

I get a lot of tips but I dont always share them because I try to offer honest and trusted tips on here.

Had a beauty last week at 10/1 but I didn't share this because this was information that wast suppose to be in my hands. No body knew about it.


This is a screen shot of the horses form today including todays result

ice_screenshot_20170502-231219.png

If you look closely. This horse has been held up in the middle of the field and the rear on every single race except two.
The only two it didnt the horse was priced 6/1 (08 jul 16) and 8/1 today. So it goes off pretty much 66/1 33/1 20/1 etc and runs in the rear but the two times theres real money for it it tries to make the lead.
Additionally the only two races in its entire career it tried to make the running was at 1m4f and 1m3f.

That is what inside information is and something you cant predict without being told.
So I can say with a good chance if this horse ever wins 10 races. 80% of them it will be run from the lead or prominent and the remaining 20% 2 wins would be in the rear.. thats on the assumption that 20% of races are won by horse not trying.

[RentonT]

Using your figures on todays tip... 3/11 horses were trying to win... 1 has to be your selection. But it came 6th out of 11. So got beat by 2 triers (presumably) and 3 non-triers. I mean it wasn't even close. The winner was 50/1 and won pretty well by 1 1/4 lengths,

But I don't want to have a go at you personally. A lot of what you said there is not true though.

The problem with giving tips is pretty obvious as you know.

Trainers are guessing more often than people would imagine truth be told and they can never be sure, so fook knows how people think inside tips etc are really that special. And generally speaking they only know the ins and outs of the horse/s that they are dealing with not what the other trainers have got.

I have a friend who's horse won at 66/1 by 6 lengths and all the trainer said before the race was that they were trying a new bit. The horse had previously pulled up. They definitely weren't expecting that.

And another friend once had P Nicholls tip him 3 horses on a Saturday - all lost and he ended up winning with one that he hadn't tipped.

A great example is when Jockeys genuinely pic the wrong horse to ride. (yes there are times when it's all part of a swindle) but not in most cases.

On occasions there will undeniably be gambles landed and good inside knowledge tips that work. But the strike rate will never be good enough because anything can happen. And it makes you look like a right tit, tipping a loser. More than how good you look when one comes in.

One inside knowledge I heard about was when Chatterbox beat My Tent Or Yours, a bookie on course told my friends Dad that Henderson had come to win with the 2nd string horse because they were targeting the Betfair Hurdle with MTOY. Sure enough it won and all known form previous and after shows that the race on the day was fixed. So yea of course it happens.

But SHR these inside knowlesge tips are rubbish

I don't see the point in it, either to show off in which case you better have a 100% strike rate no matter what price they are. Or to get paid for a tipping service in which case you better have a good strike rate.

And finally it's dangerous for people that will follow these "inside knowledge" tips thinking they have got a much better chance of winning than if they were to follow the racing post nap of the day.

No hard feelings SHR, it's not personal and I'm an ENTP-A Debator so it's not an attack on you

[RentonT]

The horse is rated 54 has run 8 times (5 in handicaps) without winning. Good luck with 10 wins

[SeaHorseRacing]

There is a book available, its a good read too it only contains quotes from the most respected and legendary people within racing. Called- Classic horse racing quotes

As I have mentioned before that I know this guy pretty well if you read back old posts of mine... he rode his first winner in 1957 and still training today.

This is a famous quote from the book.

"if somebody is telling me their horse has a good chance, it's because they aint trying. If they really think its going to win, they dont tell anybody' Trainer- Dai Burchell

My information doesnt come from trainers as I already mentioned. If i saw that Paul Nicholls tipped three but not one at the same track, I would most definitely would have kept an eye on that 4th one.

Trainers do not release information to anyone other then an owner or jockey.

Anyway if you check this thread out I have tipped some very nice winners and certainly tipped more winners then losers.

[SeaHorseRacing]

The horse is rated 54 has run 8 times (5 in handicaps) without winning. Good luck with 10 wins

Think you miss interpreted what I said. My writing is awful as most can gather. So I will clarify.

What I meant by it was.

IF this horse ever wins 10 races. (I chose 10 because it makes it easier to simplify percentages. 20% of 4 winners wouldn't be possible to explain) So I chose 10 to elaborate.

If the horse ever wins 10 races... becuase of the information I have already received I can tell you that when and if this horse ever does win it will probably make the running. If the horse ever wins from the rear it is likely the horse was not really trying. This is possible a race could go off at a ridiculous fast pace and set it up. So many other reasons.

I was trying to explain that what ever races this horse does win (if he does) they will be front running and most likely 1m3f and over. and additionally there probably be shorter prices.

No hard feeling at all your entitled to your opinion and have enjoyed the chat.

[RentonT]

Thumb up

[Naffman]

Didn't know where to put this but streaming stopped working about 7.55am

[ruthlessimon]

painful that one!

[wilf]

Inviolable Spirit looked so strong pre there's no way I would be backing Corinthia. It only came back in at the end probably because it's a frontrunner.

Frozen Angel winning was a big surprise, but that's the best thing about trading it doesn't matter to us.

[Euler]

Decent quality at Ascot today, let's hope it shows

[Naffman]

Reckless Wave 2.25 heavily layed

[ruthlessimon]

Inviolable Spirit looked so strong pre there's no way I would be backing Corinthia. It only came back in at the end probably because it's a frontrunner.

I had a hunch Corinthia would steam late on. but my entry was slightly too late, so I had to sit through a lot of pain before the move got going!

[HRacing]

That reversal on Hold Sway hurt