Offset Bet using % instead of ticks

[Stubbo]

Hi,

I'm sure this is an easy one to answer...

When using the Offset Betting % setting in Guardian, does that relate to % probability of winning?

I.E. If I place an offset Back bet at 2.0 (50% probability of winning) and select 5% as the offset, does this mean the offset will be placed at 1.82 (55% probability of winning)?

Thanks,

Stubbo

[Dallas]

Its the percentage of movement from the odds (or odds -1) the bet is placed at. So if you backed at 6.0 and offset 50% the lay would be placed at 3.0

[Niko]

On the warlock site you posted Dallas, it list the % of bsp each horse achieved, can the offset % bet be used against these?

[Dallas]

On the warlock site you posted Dallas, it list the % of bsp each horse achieved, can the offset % bet be used against these?

Yes the % works the same on both

[Stubbo]

Thanks Dallas....so if placed at 2.0 where should the 50% setting place the Offset?

Assuming 6/2=3 (as per your example), 2/2=1, but I can't think the offset bet would be placed at 1.0...and if it was that's a 100% movement in the odds (they can't move any further).

I guess I don't really understand what you mean by, "Its the percentage of movement from the odds (or odds -1) the bet is placed at".

In fact having just written this, I just tried placing a 50% offset bet at a price of 2.04, and it placed an offset at 1.02. This is clearly not a 50% movement in the odds, but very close to a 100% movement based on the starting odds selected. A bet placed at 1.87 places the offset at 1.0 (again, 100% movement).

Is this working in the way it's intended (appreciate that's a question for Euler possibly)? Below 2.0 the model would appear to break/fails to make much sense using % Offset.

[Dallas]

Its not the implied percentage (chance of winning) its the percentage of the odds it was placed at
So 50% of 2.04 is 1.02

2.04 minus 1.02 = 1.02 / 2.04 * 100 = 50%

If you used a offset of 10% and backed at 10.0 the offset would be placed at 9.0
If you used a offset of 25% and backed at 8.0 the offset would be placed at 6.0

So its working exactly as intended

[Niko]

So if a horse consistently did 75% Bsp, I would back 25% offset bet??

[Dallas]

So if a horse consistently did 75% Bsp, I would back 25% offset bet??

If your using the warlocks site yes thats right, it would be better if their headers went 90%, 80%, 50%, 25%

So instead of saying it traded at 25% below instead it shows as it traded at 75% of its BSP

[Niko]

So if a horse consistently did 75% Bsp, I would back 25% offset bet??

If your using the warlocks site yes thats right, it would be better if their headers went 90%, 80%, 50%, 25%

So instead of saying it traded at 25% below instead it shows as it traded at 75% of its BSP

Agree, confused me, but that ain't hard!!