Today's Horse Racing
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ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2153
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
I haven't done much on limit orders, just had a quick look back through some of today's markets. I'm guessing this is the sort of thing classed as 'manipulation'?
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Totally Boring, BBC R4 broadcast yesterday you need to be 15 minutes into it before it becomes relevant "As a Trader..................." It's a guy with a funny accent but he is : Alex Preda, Professor of Accounting, Accountability and Financial Management, Kings College London, so he must know sumtin'.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08nqb18
Thinking Allowed BBC.CO.UK
"Less than 2% make money"
Just swap "Professional Trader" for "Bookies"! Etc. Etc. Etc.
"What on Earth makes it makes it? .........."
Who knows?
"Feisty young men" ???????
Enjoy!
Oh, I just noticed the programme is called "Insuring against disasters - electronic finance". Doh!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08nqb18
Thinking Allowed BBC.CO.UK
"Less than 2% make money"
Just swap "Professional Trader" for "Bookies"! Etc. Etc. Etc.
"What on Earth makes it makes it? .........."
Who knows?
"Feisty young men" ???????
Enjoy!
Oh, I just noticed the programme is called "Insuring against disasters - electronic finance". Doh!
I find it much easier to catch a 'drifting' horse. I will 99% of the time only lay horses first, I find it very difficult to back a horse as to me you are taking the worst price/bottom of range area from say a horse that has gone from 8 to 4 and just paying for some one elses exit. Granted it does get me in trouble some times and can make myself look like a right numpty as in hindsight the horse was clearly coming in.
Like one from the other day some one posted a screen shot, horse looked like it was going to drift around 1.7-1.8 and it came into around 1.36 and i am sitting thinking why would any one still be backing this now!?! Horse racing markets make hardly any normal logical sense,well my normal, but that is where the money can be made imo.
Just to make the above clear, i did not lay it at 1.7 and sit on it until 1.36.
may've been this one, for example, where did I go wrong?, oversized lay bet came in hence I placed a lay order only for it to turn against me, thought I had a reason to enter because of the oversized lay bet, should I have looked for confirmation that this was going to play out or was this oversized lay bet (as indicated) enough of a signal?, I'm pretty much ok with steamers but as for drifters I do just not, repeat not have a clue when to comes to confirming drifting signals, whenever I see a oversized lay bet I haven't any idea how to time the execution to catch the drift
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To me the problem with oversized lay/back orders is who ever does it has a much better idea where the price should be/will end up than me,you and most other people in the market (sheep).Korattt wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2017 10:58 ammay've been this one, for example, where did I go wrong?, oversized lay bet came in hence I placed a lay order only for it to turn against me, thought I had a reason to enter because of the oversized lay bet, should I have looked for confirmation that this was going to play out or was this oversized lay bet (as indicated) enough of a signal?, I'm pretty much ok with steamers but as for drifters I do just not, repeat not have a clue when to comes to confirming drifting signals, whenever I see a oversized lay bet I haven't any idea how to time the execution to catch the drift
I am not sure when the lay spike came in but say it was 1.7, whos money is sitting above that price when all the sheep jump on it..?
The screen shot was the one i was talking about, say you laid at 1.6 area pre the lay spike out at 1.7 maybe.. But the spike would of made you think you were on for a big drift so you might of held on. Fail point would of been passed the 1.6 , as you can see the low of around 1.55 support/resistance flip flopped.
Was any other horse getting supported? From memory i do not think so.
imo i think it is better to sit and wait after a spike and see what reaction is has had on the overall market rather than just jumping straight on. A lot of games are played and many people fall for them.
If the market is trending in a certain direction and a big volume spike comes in against that then I would be cautious to think it's a sign saying the price will go the other way now. It could easily be someone closing out a position.
It's different if a market is ranging. Then I would say that a big volume spike would be more interesting.
And finally if the market is trending and a big volume spike (that is going with the trend) comes in then that is a helpful sign too, especially after a little retracement.
It's different if a market is ranging. Then I would say that a big volume spike would be more interesting.
And finally if the market is trending and a big volume spike (that is going with the trend) comes in then that is a helpful sign too, especially after a little retracement.
Cheers Euler
The break above 1.7 on fav and below 4 on second was where many got caught out i assume.
It is the reason why i would sit and wait after a spike rather than just jumping in straight away.
Very easy to say after the fact as sometimes a spike comes in and it goes off to the moon , other times like this is does the complete opposite.
If you had a lay position open at 1.7 when the spike came in then it goes against you , whens the cut off point? At the back of your mind (it is the devil right peter..)Well a big lay spike came in, its gonnnnna drift at some point, right!? And it just gets worse and worse.
Then you look back at it after and it was the most obvious steam ever, but in the split second that lay order came in you convinced your self it was going to drift and stuck with it.
Don't be fooled by the randomness.
The break above 1.7 on fav and below 4 on second was where many got caught out i assume.
It is the reason why i would sit and wait after a spike rather than just jumping in straight away.
Very easy to say after the fact as sometimes a spike comes in and it goes off to the moon , other times like this is does the complete opposite.
If you had a lay position open at 1.7 when the spike came in then it goes against you , whens the cut off point? At the back of your mind (it is the devil right peter..)Well a big lay spike came in, its gonnnnna drift at some point, right!? And it just gets worse and worse.
Then you look back at it after and it was the most obvious steam ever, but in the split second that lay order came in you convinced your self it was going to drift and stuck with it.
Don't be fooled by the randomness.