Glad it's just not me. althought i got a good result on UAE prince then. Previous races i didnt do so well.
Today's Horse Racing
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ernie120488
- Posts: 40
- Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:09 pm
optimus prime definitely wasnt liked then
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
That is some drift on the fav in the first at Thirsk. The way it drifts makes you wonder whether its trying. Fully exposed too will it will get beat and not finish in the frame.
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10530
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
SHR, In your opinion, how much of the money in the market is smart money, and how much is from regular have-a-go punters or people just going with the flow?
It can only ever be a guess, but I'd be suprised if more that 10% of it was based on any sort of study to the extent you do or inside knowledge (pos more mid-week). I just wonder how much notice to take of significant moves.
It can only ever be a guess, but I'd be suprised if more that 10% of it was based on any sort of study to the extent you do or inside knowledge (pos more mid-week). I just wonder how much notice to take of significant moves.
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Pontius Fascias-Inn
- Posts: 8
- Joined: Sun May 14, 2017 5:57 pm
Aha Shaun,
I, who know nothing whilst not being able to answer your question, did stumble across an old (2008) betfair article on returns achieved by backing steamers as opposed to drifters.
Whilst you could argue that the rush of money for the favourite was anything but smart, as its more a herd instinct, this article did get me to think of the presence of bots and perhaps algo's and how much of the money flow generated is actually punters putting on bets (I'd suspect very little today comapred to 2008), as I can see that large pools of money or algo's are quite possibly helping to drive the price one way and then the other by creating the volatillity in order to exploit it.
Thats probably all tosh, but just a thought anyway
D'OH lol, the actual link might prove useful :
https://betting.betfair.com/horse-racin ... 20708.html
I, who know nothing whilst not being able to answer your question, did stumble across an old (2008) betfair article on returns achieved by backing steamers as opposed to drifters.
Whilst you could argue that the rush of money for the favourite was anything but smart, as its more a herd instinct, this article did get me to think of the presence of bots and perhaps algo's and how much of the money flow generated is actually punters putting on bets (I'd suspect very little today comapred to 2008), as I can see that large pools of money or algo's are quite possibly helping to drive the price one way and then the other by creating the volatillity in order to exploit it.
Thats probably all tosh, but just a thought anyway
D'OH lol, the actual link might prove useful :
https://betting.betfair.com/horse-racin ... 20708.html
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
Peter Webb will definitely be able to answer the question better for you. I asked a very similar question at the masterclass a few years back and he showed some stats about how much was traders money etc..ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sat May 13, 2017 5:53 pmSHR, In your opinion, how much of the money in the market is smart money, and how much is from regular have-a-go punters or people just going with the flow?
It can only ever be a guess, but I'd be suprised if more that 10% of it was based on any sort of study to the extent you do or inside knowledge (pos more mid-week). I just wonder how much notice to take of significant moves.
Its such a good question and I honestly would not know. I would guess that shrewed money is less but in bigger chunks and clever punters or people who study I would say 5% of the so called mugs.
Its hard to defirengite between what is studying and what isnt...
One thing I do know and have learned is the longer you spend looking at the form the better your results are.
When frankel won the lockinge a few years back I spent the best part of 5 hours a day for 3/4 fays to study the cards and entries for Newbury and I picked every winner including a 25/1 shot...
I certainly do feel that i get a better feel for what seems genuine in the markets. IMO what usually feels genuine gambles or clever money usually is slow and steady and has some sort of rhythm to it... and the charts have a nice line to them kind of in a perfect side of a triangle.
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
Additionally, one piece of advice I do have from experience too.
A yard I was working for once was planning and asked by the owner to get a horse ready for a particular race.
Everything was right and the horse looked in tip top shape- ready to win.. get to the track and once on the paddock the owner turns round and decides they want a few more pounds off the runner. to get a lower weight next time. I am pretty sure this happens often too.
Trainers are really busy and owners are usually wealthy busy people too especially if they have a few horses they dont get information until there on the paddock. Especially a jockey that doesnt usually ride out or ride for the owner or trainer.. If you can see jockeys mounting in the paddock and gambles following a few mins after that for me is a sign of a real gamble.
I have a very funny story i would like to share, I wont say which trainer.
Few years back when I wanted to get into racing I telephone a bunch of stables, no experience, never even ridden a horse.
To be honest nearly every call I made I was welcomed and chose upon one stable. Within 10 mins of me getting to the yard the trainer was screaming at one of the riders. Never seen anything like it in my life... really quite unpleasant.
So after that morning I decided not to go back... a few months later I still was curios about working in a racing yard. I plucked up the courage called them back up and arranged to go back.. thankfully to the missus said to me I should try again.
So I called and spoke to trainers wife on the telephone, said I came up a few months ago etc and she was prepared to let me come in muck out and volunteer again.. At this time I was out of work.
I remember the first words the trainer said to me (he never spoke to me the first time)... "There isnt no f****** money, lets get that straight but your more then welcome to help."
I volunteered every morning and kept going back for about 5/6 weeks. 7 days a week I went in and never had one day off..
I remember sweeping the yard just as everything was finished for the morning and I was thinking, what is the point in me doing this, mucking out horses is no fun.. not getting paid, never going to get a job and I am not really learning anything.. maybe i should just give it up.
So I went to leave the yard for the day and as I went to jump in my car one of the other lasses stopped me and said theres an envelope here for you go into the house (trainers house) to get it.
So I went up and knocked the door and I was given an envelope. To my shock, they had paid me a wage in the envelope handed over to me by the trainers wife.
At this point the trainer walked in and said to me... would you like to go racing this evening at Wolverhampton?
I was pretty chuffed and said yes of course.
So I went home enjoyed some lunch and returned back around 3pm.
Into the truck in the back seat I was sat with trainer and head lad. It was a very surreal moment.
To me this was like sitting in a car with a couple a footballer as I am such a fan of racing.
Go back in time- That very morning during a coffee break all the staff were in the little shed chatting and I specifically remember hearing the trainer asking one of the girls. "Are we betting this horse today?"
Obviously not knowing his personality I never really thought anything of it and just assumed this was inside information. As the girl said hes working nicely!
Back to the truck- so we finally arrived at Wolverhampton.
At this time due to me not having a racing pass I couldnt go behind the scenes and into the stables. So I patiently waited outside the stables whilst they loaded the horses of the trailer. When they returned they took me to the entrance and he got me an owners pass which came with a free meal in the owners bar.
We sat hand some food and a cup of tea. The head lad went off to sort one of two of the horse entered for the different races.
So there i was following the trainer around like a dog on a lead.
It comes to race time of the first horse running. The trainer goes into the weighing room, whilst hes in there I walk over and put the best part of 80% of my wages on this horse each way.
The trainer returns and says come on lets go to the paddock. Off we went. So within 5 weeks of never even touching a race horse I am stood in the paddock on a friday night waiting for the jockey to come out. No owner for the horse and barely anyone there.
Whilst we are waiting, the trainer gets chatting to a pretty blonde girl, as the conversation continues the girl is head lass to marco botti.
It turns out they really fancy there chances.
Eventually as the horses are parading the head lad is lead the horse and I am stood here with the trainer... the jockeys.. one by one they come out. Tom Queally, Richard Hughes was who I remember at the time. Up comes our jockey. 5ft tall Sam Hitchcock.
At this time he comes over shakes the trainers hand then mine and they getting chatting.
Sam turns to the trainer and says. So.. where do you want me?
The trainer turns round and says. "What ever you do, do NOT get competitive. Stick the horse midfield and try and finish 7th or 8th. He needs the run and will come on for it."
I couldnt beleive it. I had just work my ass for free for 6 weeks and I finally got a weeks worth of wages and have pretty much done the lot on the horse that appears to be not trying.
So the trainer gives the jockey a leg up and we walk under the stand into the main stands to watch the race.
We all gather towards the rail with the head lad and the trainer. The trainer then wonders off. In the corner of my eye I can see hes walked over to a pitch to place of what looked a £20 bet.
He comes back and says. Lets hope shes right.... So Scott (me) what have you backed in the race.
I turn and say hesitantly... I backed your horse.
These words will never be clearer in my memory.
"What a f****** waste of money that is"
The race ends and the horse finished 9th. Turns out Marco Botti had the easy winner and the trainer backed it!!!
Can you believe it.
The moral of the story.... information can be very privileged and the whole entire yard wouldnt have had any clue on the trainers intentions for the race.
A yard I was working for once was planning and asked by the owner to get a horse ready for a particular race.
Everything was right and the horse looked in tip top shape- ready to win.. get to the track and once on the paddock the owner turns round and decides they want a few more pounds off the runner. to get a lower weight next time. I am pretty sure this happens often too.
Trainers are really busy and owners are usually wealthy busy people too especially if they have a few horses they dont get information until there on the paddock. Especially a jockey that doesnt usually ride out or ride for the owner or trainer.. If you can see jockeys mounting in the paddock and gambles following a few mins after that for me is a sign of a real gamble.
I have a very funny story i would like to share, I wont say which trainer.
Few years back when I wanted to get into racing I telephone a bunch of stables, no experience, never even ridden a horse.
To be honest nearly every call I made I was welcomed and chose upon one stable. Within 10 mins of me getting to the yard the trainer was screaming at one of the riders. Never seen anything like it in my life... really quite unpleasant.
So after that morning I decided not to go back... a few months later I still was curios about working in a racing yard. I plucked up the courage called them back up and arranged to go back.. thankfully to the missus said to me I should try again.
So I called and spoke to trainers wife on the telephone, said I came up a few months ago etc and she was prepared to let me come in muck out and volunteer again.. At this time I was out of work.
I remember the first words the trainer said to me (he never spoke to me the first time)... "There isnt no f****** money, lets get that straight but your more then welcome to help."
I volunteered every morning and kept going back for about 5/6 weeks. 7 days a week I went in and never had one day off..
I remember sweeping the yard just as everything was finished for the morning and I was thinking, what is the point in me doing this, mucking out horses is no fun.. not getting paid, never going to get a job and I am not really learning anything.. maybe i should just give it up.
So I went to leave the yard for the day and as I went to jump in my car one of the other lasses stopped me and said theres an envelope here for you go into the house (trainers house) to get it.
So I went up and knocked the door and I was given an envelope. To my shock, they had paid me a wage in the envelope handed over to me by the trainers wife.
At this point the trainer walked in and said to me... would you like to go racing this evening at Wolverhampton?
I was pretty chuffed and said yes of course.
So I went home enjoyed some lunch and returned back around 3pm.
Into the truck in the back seat I was sat with trainer and head lad. It was a very surreal moment.
To me this was like sitting in a car with a couple a footballer as I am such a fan of racing.
Go back in time- That very morning during a coffee break all the staff were in the little shed chatting and I specifically remember hearing the trainer asking one of the girls. "Are we betting this horse today?"
Obviously not knowing his personality I never really thought anything of it and just assumed this was inside information. As the girl said hes working nicely!
Back to the truck- so we finally arrived at Wolverhampton.
At this time due to me not having a racing pass I couldnt go behind the scenes and into the stables. So I patiently waited outside the stables whilst they loaded the horses of the trailer. When they returned they took me to the entrance and he got me an owners pass which came with a free meal in the owners bar.
We sat hand some food and a cup of tea. The head lad went off to sort one of two of the horse entered for the different races.
So there i was following the trainer around like a dog on a lead.
It comes to race time of the first horse running. The trainer goes into the weighing room, whilst hes in there I walk over and put the best part of 80% of my wages on this horse each way.
The trainer returns and says come on lets go to the paddock. Off we went. So within 5 weeks of never even touching a race horse I am stood in the paddock on a friday night waiting for the jockey to come out. No owner for the horse and barely anyone there.
Whilst we are waiting, the trainer gets chatting to a pretty blonde girl, as the conversation continues the girl is head lass to marco botti.
It turns out they really fancy there chances.
Eventually as the horses are parading the head lad is lead the horse and I am stood here with the trainer... the jockeys.. one by one they come out. Tom Queally, Richard Hughes was who I remember at the time. Up comes our jockey. 5ft tall Sam Hitchcock.
At this time he comes over shakes the trainers hand then mine and they getting chatting.
Sam turns to the trainer and says. So.. where do you want me?
The trainer turns round and says. "What ever you do, do NOT get competitive. Stick the horse midfield and try and finish 7th or 8th. He needs the run and will come on for it."
I couldnt beleive it. I had just work my ass for free for 6 weeks and I finally got a weeks worth of wages and have pretty much done the lot on the horse that appears to be not trying.
So the trainer gives the jockey a leg up and we walk under the stand into the main stands to watch the race.
We all gather towards the rail with the head lad and the trainer. The trainer then wonders off. In the corner of my eye I can see hes walked over to a pitch to place of what looked a £20 bet.
He comes back and says. Lets hope shes right.... So Scott (me) what have you backed in the race.
I turn and say hesitantly... I backed your horse.
These words will never be clearer in my memory.
"What a f****** waste of money that is"
The race ends and the horse finished 9th. Turns out Marco Botti had the easy winner and the trainer backed it!!!
Can you believe it.
The moral of the story.... information can be very privileged and the whole entire yard wouldnt have had any clue on the trainers intentions for the race.
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ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2153
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
