Can you create an automation file to do this ?

[dunkwellington]

Hi,

Can anyone give me a bit of advice as to whether the following is possible using automation, I would start by placing a betfair starting price bet and then I'm looking for a baf file to do the following

Green up on a DOB (I know this can be done and use a baf for this)
If the in running price drops below the BSP price, to put a stop loss on it after rising a certain number of ticks ?
If the in running price does not drop below BSP price, put a stop loss figure in in monetary values

Could something like this be done ? And if so, could anyone point me in the right direction ?

Thanks

Duncan

[Frogmella]

You CAN do this, but forget it. The stop will get hit regularly, create a large liability much bigger than the original back bet, and then the horse will, all too often, pick up its skirts and win, this will wipe out any profits from the ones that DOB.

Then, you will do one of two things, maybe both, you'll widen the stop on the basis that its gone so far out that it can't possibly win now, but no, it will hit that wider stop and still win often enough to make your losses even worse. So then you will try to put a green-up rule in to save you if it stops out and then comes back and looks like winning, but this will be a nightmare because of late race volatility and it will end up costing you even bigger losses. You will end up losing £150 trying to save a fiver. I've seen odds go from 3 to 34 and back again in 3 seconds flat at the end of a race. Remember, Betfair delays all in-play horse-racing bets by a second. this is why bets are very often overrun in-play and never get matched.

You might then try to get the DOB bet to fire with only a minute or perhaps 30 secs of the race left - but that won't work either.

Then you might try Back to Lay at smaller profit percentages say 30%, 20% or even 10% - but none of those will work either.

Then you may reason that if Back to Lay doesn't work perhaps Lay to Back will, but no, that doesn't work either. The winnings are smaller and the liability greater than Back to Lay.

Believe me, I've done all this, I bet everyone has.

The way to DOB profitably is to spend your time studying which selection has the best chance of shortening in-running and place a back bet with 50% offset and greening, no stop, nothing else, then, if your analysis is any good, you have a chance.

[dunkwellington]

Ii was on my mind how often the stop loss would get hit, thanks very much for your input - much appreciated

[Niko]

You CAN do this, but forget it. The stop will get hit regularly, create a large liability much bigger than the original back bet, and then the horse will, all too often, pick up its skirts and win, this will wipe out any profits from the ones that DOB.

Then, you will do one of two things, maybe both, you'll widen the stop on the basis that its gone so far out that it can't possibly win now, but no, it will hit that wider stop and still win often enough to make your losses even worse. So then you will try to put a green-up rule in to save you if it stops out and then comes back and looks like winning, but this will be a nightmare because of late race volatility and it will end up costing you even bigger losses. You will end up losing £150 trying to save a fiver. I've seen odds go from 3 to 34 and back again in 3 seconds flat at the end of a race. Remember, Betfair delays all in-play horse-racing bets by a second. this is why bets are very often overrun in-play and never get matched.

You might then try to get the DOB bet to fire with only a minute or perhaps 30 secs of the race left - but that won't work either.

Then you might try Back to Lay at smaller profit percentages say 30%, 20% or even 10% - but none of those will work either.

Then you may reason that if Back to Lay doesn't work perhaps Lay to Back will, but no, that doesn't work either. The winnings are smaller and the liability greater than Back to Lay.

Believe me, I've done all this, I bet everyone has.

The way to DOB profitably is to spend your time studying which selection has the best chance of shortening in-running and place a back bet with 50% offset and greening, no stop, nothing else, then, if your analysis is any good, you have a chance.

Pretty much sums up my first six months with betangel lol

[Laugro1968]

Pretty much sums up my first six months with betangel lol

+1 here:)

[Frogmella]

Ii was on my mind how often the stop loss would get hit, thanks very much for your input - much appreciated

Its not the fact that the stop gets hit that is the problem, with greening it would produce lovely results for a while and you'd think you've cracked it, a real money making machine. The trouble is the amount of times it matches a stop bet and then comes back to win. That is what kills you and is what cannot be avoided. I built a ruleset with over 150 rules setting execution times, delayed stop fills to avoid spikes, graduated greening rules that bought me out a bit at a time etc etc. A real labyrinth of complex logic. It would win for a bit then BANG, all gone.

I've been full time at this all this year so far and I am of the opinion that there is NO method of making a meaningful profit from horse racing using any fully automated strategy of any kind (assuming a reasonable risk/reward ratio and fair ROI). If anyone would care to correct me I would be delighted.