Hoovering Opportunity?

[CaerMyrddin]

I've been looking at some secundary markets and stepped into this:

World Cup - Top Goalscorer-Top4

Downloaded FIFA rules and found that the 'tie break' rules are assists and least minutes played.

I also checked FIFA site for statistics and found this:

http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/awards/gol ... index.html

Focusing on Vittek, the guy can't overcome the top3, as all of them have at least the same amount of goals and more assists.

Looking to Higuain they are tied both in goals (4) and assists (0) but he has played least minutes and as both Slovakia and Argentina are out this can't change. So, Vittek can't reach the top4...

Am I thinking wrong? Can FIFA change any of these statistics? Can't find any error, but when things look too good to be true...

[dan_payne182]

Klose can obviously move down below Vittek (if Klose is played for over 86 minutes without scoring, which seems doubtful at the minute ) but your right the top 3 can't below him, as they have assists, and Higuain will always be above Vittek as they are both out. There's £100 ready for the taking if this is true, but i would be scared to rack up a £700 liability without knowing fully that i was not at risk....

[CaerMyrddin]

Thank you for your reply.

Can't find the risk, as long as FIFA don't chance one goal's scorer, like they did with F.Melo's own goal.

Had a little nip at it, hope it goes well.

[Human123]

Well Klose has two games to play, a potential of 180 mins at least and he might not score in both, so that would mean he drops out of the top 4?

Would that make a dead heat apply?

Its not really a lock but it looks good value to lay vittek with klose still having two games to get a goal or an assist!

[dan_payne182]

Got it. Netherlands - Brazil, Sneijder free kick. FIFA has obviously credited the goal to Sneijder but BBC has it as a Melo og. If FIFA has given it to Sneijder it should stay sneijder's. Depends on wether they'll overturn the goal. So looking at it For Vittek to finish in the top 4 Sneijders claim to the goal will have to be overturned and Klose will have to play over 8 minutes without scoring. In my opinion even if it is possible this is value at 3.4

[CaerMyrddin]

Hi, I think you're missing my point. Simply put Klose of this list, you don't really need to think about him, because he can be beaten by Vittek if he plays more minutes then Vittek and scores no more goals, altough I must agree with you, it is unlikely, but possible. But the top three can't be beaten by Vittek and also Higuain can't, I think.

What do you mean by dead heat apply?

Thank you!

[Human123]

Ah i see now...

sorry is early morning for me!

[dan_payne182]

Sneijder can drop to 3 goals though if FIFA reverse their og decision. thats the only risk i can see.

[CaerMyrddin]

Well, I closed my position due to the 'dead heat'. I guess the rules that FIFA apply to the golden boot don't apply here.

[dan_payne182]

betfair rules on this market

"This market applies to 90 minutes and any injury time. Extra Time is included. Penalty shoot-outs DO NOT count. At the start of the tournament the market will be suspended, all unmatched bets will be cancelled and the market will be reopened. Other players may be added on request. Dead heat rules apply. In the event of any dispute as to who has scored any goal we will follow the decision made by FIFA."

Betfairs dead heat rules? or FIFA's? hmm