I'm very new to Betfair trading and only signed up to the Bet Angel trial a couple of days ago... so go easy on me.
For the pact couple of days, I've been randomly scalping, with no real strategy. It was going wrong as often as it worked and last night, I was around £2 in profit overall and beginning to lose interest.
This morning I placed a lay bet against Westerland at the 13:50 Leicester. I staked £20 at odds of 1.76. Again, I had no strategy, just a blind hope that the odds would increase and I'd be able to make a very small profit by placing a back bet.
I ended up getting distracted and only returned to my computer just moments before the race began. The odds had shortened, and I looked to be having a £2 loss if I greened up.
I decided not to green up, but wait to see what happened during the race. (I wasn't actually watching the race, I was just looking at Bet Angel)
Once the race started, the price for greening was going up and down - nothing dramatic - but I though I'd wait until it reported only a £1 loss and then green up.
I did exactly this - and it somehow ended up placing a back bet on Westerland for £12.57 at odds of 34.
My potential profit if Westerland won was then around £400, and my profit if Westerland didn't win was £7.50. Since I couldn't see the race and I had no idea if Westerland was likely to win, I greened up again and ended up with around £200 whatever the result.
Westerland won.
Now, I appreciate this was 100% luck and I'm very happy about it.... but I'm keen to learn how it happened. I know my reaction time and Bet Angel's responses are never going to match up with a live race, but is this something I could learn to repeat, or was it a complete fluke that's unlikely to happen again?
More importantly, could this have gone in the opposite direction and resulted in me having a huge loss?
I just made £200 and I don't understand how.
I assume, when you clicked the hedge button the odds were much lower e.g. 10. But when your order hit the market the odds had drifted to the higher odds that you got. Yes luck of course, but many people profit from luck with tick offsets inplay with how quick the odds move about.
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spreadbetting
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You got lucky with the fast moving odds in running, when you clicked the button the odds would have given you a £7.50 win win/lose but by the time the bet hit the market the odds had increased to 34. That's why in running markets shoudn't be relied on to close out your bets , they can be so fast moving you're in the lap of the god as to whether they go in your favour or not.
That £200 win could end up proving very costly if it reinforces the notion you can trade with blind hope, distracted and closing in running. I know you're only playing with small stakes but now's the time to build solid trading foundations as once you've set bad habits they'll be very hard to break if at all.
That £200 win could end up proving very costly if it reinforces the notion you can trade with blind hope, distracted and closing in running. I know you're only playing with small stakes but now's the time to build solid trading foundations as once you've set bad habits they'll be very hard to break if at all.
Last minute in-play is very volatile so when you clicked £1 red-up loss it was probably a different green/red by the time it was processed. When the £12.57 stake was calculated the odds had changed and when it placed the £12.57 the odds had changed again. A fluke which could easily have gone the other way.pyrrhus80 wrote: ↑Tue May 30, 2017 3:18 pm
This morning I placed a lay bet against Westerland at the 13:50 Leicester. I staked £20 at odds of 1.76. Again, I had no strategy, just a blind hope that the odds would increase and I'd be able to make a very small profit by placing a back bet.
Once the race started, the price for greening was going up and down - nothing dramatic - but I though I'd wait until it reported only a £1 loss and then green up.
I did exactly this - and it somehow ended up placing a back bet on Westerland for £12.57 at odds of 34.
More importantly, could this have gone in the opposite direction and resulted in me having a huge loss?
You can do the calculations... for example, the £12.57 stake implies odds of 2.8 to green/red-up a £20 lay @1.76.
How could this have been costly? Liability was only ever the £20 at 1.76.spreadbetting wrote: ↑Tue May 30, 2017 3:39 pmYou got lucky with the fast moving odds in running, when you clicked the button the odds would have given you a £7.50 win win/lose but by the time the bet hit the market the odds had increased to 34. That's why in running markets shoudn't be relied on to close out your bets , they can be so fast moving you're in the lap of the god as to whether they go in your favour or not.
That £200 win could end up proving very costly if it reinforces the notion you can trade with blind hope, distracted and closing in running. I know you're only playing with small stakes but now's the time to build solid trading foundations as once you've set bad habits they'll be very hard to break if at all.
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spreadbetting
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If you start believing you can trade without putting in any effort that £200 win will pale into insignificance with your future losses.
ive been trading off and on for a couple of years and only gone full time in the last three months. since going full time i have read this forum a lot and if i can tell you one thing it is this, there are some very knowledgeable people on here and i would advise that you listen to what they are telling you!!!! learn the right way from the beginning.
why dont you go onto demo mode and try and replicate what happened and you will see. yes liability was low but i doubt if you will always only be using £20 stakes!
fair play for winning the £200 though.
why dont you go onto demo mode and try and replicate what happened and you will see. yes liability was low but i doubt if you will always only be using £20 stakes!
fair play for winning the £200 though.
Pyrrhus80 take a look at this post by Dallas, in it he gives you the equation that BA uses for greening and also provides information about the delay (1 second) Betfair have on in play horse racing markets.
http://www.betangel.com/forum/viewtopic ... 47&t=13077
If we transpose this equation we can get the exit odds that knome provided in the thread.
Exit Odds = (Original Stake x Entry Odds)/Greening Stake
Exit Odds = (20 x 1.76)/12.57
Exit Odds = 2.8
Because the odds were moving so quickly however by the time your order went into the market you got filled at the better odds price of 34.
The £400ish profit you could now see on your horse and the £7.50ish profit figures on all the other horses in the race would have come from the following.
If your horse won then you win 33 x 12.57 = £414.81 (note this figure does not include your back bet stake of £12.57).
From this figure you need to subtract the liability of your lay bet of £20 at 1.76.
Your liability is 20 x 0.76 = £15.20.
As LinusP mentioned in the thread this was the most you could have lost if you had just left the trade run.
So if your horse won you will end up with £414.81 - £15.20 = £399.61
If any of the other horses had won then you would have won £20 from your original lay bet, but lost £12.57 from you back bet.
£20 - £12.57 = £7.43.
If you or anyone else spots any errors I have made please let me know.
http://www.betangel.com/forum/viewtopic ... 47&t=13077
If we transpose this equation we can get the exit odds that knome provided in the thread.
Exit Odds = (Original Stake x Entry Odds)/Greening Stake
Exit Odds = (20 x 1.76)/12.57
Exit Odds = 2.8
Because the odds were moving so quickly however by the time your order went into the market you got filled at the better odds price of 34.
The £400ish profit you could now see on your horse and the £7.50ish profit figures on all the other horses in the race would have come from the following.
If your horse won then you win 33 x 12.57 = £414.81 (note this figure does not include your back bet stake of £12.57).
From this figure you need to subtract the liability of your lay bet of £20 at 1.76.
Your liability is 20 x 0.76 = £15.20.
As LinusP mentioned in the thread this was the most you could have lost if you had just left the trade run.
So if your horse won you will end up with £414.81 - £15.20 = £399.61
If any of the other horses had won then you would have won £20 from your original lay bet, but lost £12.57 from you back bet.
£20 - £12.57 = £7.43.
If you or anyone else spots any errors I have made please let me know.
it was definitely good fortune am not sure there is much to learn from it. i lay the wrong horse in running sometimes and it doesnt win " usually they do " so i count that as good fortune and also to check my concentration . i am glad it went your way and you got £200 
Just a question regarding this point...
Is there any kind of protection against quickly moving odds in the opposite direction?
For example, if my initial bet had been a back bet and I had later tried to green up. Could a quickly moving market have resulted in me LAYING at odds of 34?
I'm assuming in this situation, the lay bet simply wouldn't have been filled... but can anybody confirm that? Is it possible that greening up in a quickly moving market could result in a huge loss?